NH-ARG: Romney still way ahead
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  NH-ARG: Romney still way ahead
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Author Topic: NH-ARG: Romney still way ahead  (Read 664 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: July 14, 2011, 12:38:05 PM »

29% Romney
12% Bachmann
  9% Giuliani
  8% Palin
  7% Gingrich
  5% Pawlenty
  4% Cain
  4% Paul
  2% Perry
  2% Santorum
  0% Huntsman
  0% Johnson
  0% Roemer
  2% Others
16% Undecided

Romney leads Giuliani 33% to 9% among registered Republicans likely to vote in the primary. Bachmann leads Romney 21% to 20% among undeclared (independent) voters likely to vote in the primary.

Romney leads Bachmann 31% to 14% among voters saying they will definitely vote in the Republican primary. Romney leads Gingrich 20% to 15% among probable primary voters, with Herman Cain at 14% among probable primary voters.

Bachmann leads Romney 24% to 21% among Tea Party supporters. Romney leads Giuliani 36% to 16% among likely voters saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, with Bachmann at 2%.

...

About this Survey

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (421 Republicans and 179 undeclared voters (independents)). An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent.

Sample Dates: July 9-13, 2011

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/nh
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,197
Austria


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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2011, 12:46:20 PM »

Huntsman getting no support in this poll is a little weird.
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California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2011, 12:51:49 PM »

At least his lead is dropping.

I really want Giuliani to run now. Shake things up
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Simfan34
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2011, 05:11:33 PM »

Huntsman getting no support in this poll is a little weird.

PPP had Huntsman at 6%. Very weird.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2011, 05:21:48 PM »

Huntsman getting no support in this poll is a little weird.

PPP had Huntsman at 6%. Very weird.

Not weird.  It's ARG.  Their track record from the 2008 primaries suggests that a dartboard is a better indicator of the primary standings.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2011, 05:32:35 PM »

You know, I just took a poll in New Hampshire and here are the results.  100% real.

78% Jon Huntsman        
6%   Mitt Romney          
4%   Michele Bachmann  
4%   Rudy Guiliani          
2%   Tim Pawlenty          
4%   Other                    
2%   Don't know            

Sample: 962

All I need is a third rate university to publish them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2011, 01:20:46 AM »

Huntsman getting no support in this poll is a little weird.

PPP had Huntsman at 6%. Very weird.

Not weird.  It's ARG.  Their track record from the 2008 primaries suggests that a dartboard is a better indicator of the primary standings.


Sure, it`s ARG. But even a broken clock could be right this cycle ... Wink

What`s good about it is that ARG seems to do their quarterly look at the 5 early states again this month. So, we are very likely to get new SC, FL and NV primary numbers in the next weeks.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2011, 06:55:22 AM »

Huntsman getting no support in this poll is a little weird.

PPP had Huntsman at 6%. Very weird.

Not weird.  It's ARG.  Their track record from the 2008 primaries suggests that a dartboard is a better indicator of the primary standings.


Sure, it`s ARG. But even a broken clock could be right this cycle ... Wink

What`s good about it is that ARG seems to do their quarterly look at the 5 early states again this month. So, we are very likely to get new SC, FL and NV primary numbers in the next weeks.

I'm convinced that ARG just makes up numbers now.  Before Super Tuesday 2008, their polls were giving virtually the opposite of the correct results in every race.  Then, after Super Tuesday, they suddenly started publishing polls with plausible numbers in them.  What's more likely?  That they figured out how to properly poll overnight, or that they started fudging their numbers?

If they're just making things up, then I don't really care if we're getting new SC, FL, and NV polls.  The numbers won't mean anything.  I miss the old ARG.  In the old days, they would have put out a NH poll with Bachmann in the lead, or something equally ridiculous.  It would have been wrong.  But at least it would have been entertaining.
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