If Rick had been declared the winner in Iowa on election night...

[You kip if you want to...]

Would things have gone differently over the past two months if the media had gotten the call right?

[Torie]

No.

[Yank2133]

No.

[Paul Kemp]

Any strong showing was a win for Santorum.

[Eraserhead]

It's not like he would have went on to win New Hampshire or anything.

[Minnesota Mike]

No

[Napoleon]

Santorum was always way too out there. Newt was the only one who could have derailed Romney (after we saw how Rick Perry debates, of course).

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

No.

No.

No

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Possibly, but not necessarily in a way that benefited Santorum.

If Romney had come out of Iowa as a loser, it is possible that would have carried over to New Hampshire and allowed Huntsman to score at least a strong second place, and maybe even a win.  If Huntsman stays in until Florida, the MittPAC has to be more diffuse in its attacks.  Gingrich might have gotten all 25 SC delegates and won Florida If Huntsman stays in longer.  If Newt wins Florida, I'm not certain that Rick has his surge in time to win Colorado and Minnesota.

I'll grant that the above is unlikely, but I think you get my basic point.  The effect it would have had on the race would have been solely because Mitt lost, not because Rick won.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It would have been spun (as it was anyway) of "the right-wing conservative Christian wins Iowa, just like Huckabee in 2008".

[Gustaf]

I think it might have. It seems to me as if Romney winning both IA and NH made the race into Romney v "someone" with several people battling for that position. This enabled Gingrich to remain a serious contender and win SC.

Had Santorum won IA on election night it would've been 1-1 after NH and the race would have been framed as Santorum v Romney. In that scenario I'm not at all convinced that Perry endorses Gingrich and Gingrich wins SC the way he did.

[J. J.]

It would have been spun (as it was anyway) of "the right-wing conservative Christian wins Iowa, just like Huckabee in 2008".

Considering his performance in the next two primaries, that might have been as the truth.

[Lincoln Republican]

NO

[Keystone Phil]

I almost think the delayed victory was better because when South Carolina rolled around, everyone was saying, "Mitt went from possibly going 3 for 3 to 1 for 3!" It seemed so much more embarrassing. That being said, if Iowa was declared for Rick from the start, maybe Newt wouldn't have caught on down south and SC would have been in the Santorum column.