Puerto Rico polls

[Tender Branson]

Will we get one ?

Is it even possible for US-based pollsters to poll Puerto Rico ?

I don't remember if there were any polls during the Obama-Clinton race.

[J. J.]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

[Tender Branson]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

Green Papers says it's a regular primary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

[Tender Branson]

At least we are getting an Exit Poll, like in 2008.

[J. J.]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

Green Papers says it's a regular primary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

RCP lists it as a Caucus:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Exit polls are likely.

[Tender Branson]

Just looked up the poll closing time.

Puerto Rico closes at 4pm Eastern on Sunday, which is 9pm here.

So we Europeans don't have to get up after midnight ...

[Tender Branson]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

Green Papers says it's a regular primary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

RCP lists it as a Caucus:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Exit polls are likely.

RCP is wrong.

Take a look here at the Puerto Rico Election Office:

http://209.68.12.238/Primarias2012Rep

[J. J.]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

Green Papers says it's a regular primary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

RCP lists it as a Caucus:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Exit polls are likely.

RCP is wrong.

Take a look here at the Puerto Rico Election Office:

http://209.68.12.238/Primarias2012Rep

Okay, well, it would be possible to poll PR.

[Tender Branson]

It would be possible, but it is a caucus.  They are difficult to poll.

Green Papers says it's a regular primary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

RCP lists it as a Caucus:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Exit polls are likely.

RCP is wrong.

Take a look here at the Puerto Rico Election Office:

http://209.68.12.238/Primarias2012Rep

Okay, well, it would be possible to poll PR.

I thought there could be 2 hurdles:

* Puerto Rican polls probably have to be Spanish-only

* Usually, when US-based pollsters poll a US state, let's say Michigan, they get telephone numbers from a different company using registered voter rolls. Is that possible for Puerto Rico too ?

In 2008, only Puerto Rico-based pollsters polled the race, but not US-based like PPP, Rasmussen etc.

[J. J.]

I thought there could be 2 hurdles:

* Puerto Rican polls probably have to be Spanish-only

* Usually, when US-based pollsters poll a US state, let's say Michigan, they get telephone numbers from a different company using registered voter rolls. Is that possible for Puerto Rico too ?

In 2008, only Puerto Rico-based pollsters polled the race, but not US-based like PPP, Rasmussen etc.

The first seems unlikely, since polling companies poll in the southwest.

I don't why the second wouldn't be possible.  Expense maybe?