How could someone other than Obama or Romney have a 5% chance of winning?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's roughly what InTrade gives. Delusional Paulites?

[BaldEagle1991]

I suspect a Paul/Nader ticket could split the votes from both guys and make it look like a legitimate three man race.

[Donerail]

Paul/Kucinich is how.

[The Mikado]

That's roughly what InTrade gives. Delusional Paulites?

Hint: it's a prediction that one of Obama or Romney won't be alive on election day.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

That's roughly what InTrade gives. Delusional Paulites?

Hint: it's a prediction that one of Obama or Romney won't be alive on election day.

Or gets caught in a dead girl/live boy level of personal scandal.

While the chances are low for a terrorist attack, lone nut, plane crash, sudden health issue, personal scandal, or epic gaffe, they do add up.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

True, but I do think 5% is too generous.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That's roughly what InTrade gives. Delusional Paulites?

Someone other than Romney or Obama could win now if something happened to either of them so that his party had to select a replacement, but the odds of that happening are way below 5%.