WA-1: Tossup

[krazen1211]

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-TV-commercials-boost-DelBene-163966816.html

Koster 42
Delbene 42

Koster and Burner in a 'effective dead heat'. This district was barely won by Dino Rossi in 2010.


Obama 50, Romney 40.
McKenna 46 Inslee 42

[krazen1211]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

[BigSkyBob]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

[RI]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Late ballots always skew Democratic in Washington. It doesn't really matter what county, at least on the west side.

[krazen1211]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Even without competitive primaries, it seems that the top 2 primary in Washington has been fairly close to the general in Congressional races. And there's no Darcy Burner to lose the race.

[BigSkyBob]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Late ballots always skew Democratic in Washington. It doesn't really matter what county, at least on the west side.

Possibly, but, I wasn't referring to "late ballots." I was referring to the ballots on hand as of election day.

[RI]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Late ballots always skew Democratic in Washington. It doesn't really matter what county, at least on the west side.

Possibly, but, I wasn't referring to "late ballots." I was referring to the ballots on hand as of election day.

By late ballots, I meant those counted after election day.

[Torie]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Late ballots always skew Democratic in Washington. It doesn't really matter what county, at least on the west side.

Possibly, but, I wasn't referring to "late ballots." I was referring to the ballots on hand as of election day.

By late ballots, I meant those counted after election day.

There may be some conflation here between late counted ballots in general (not so sure about the skew there), as opposed to provisional ballots (strong lean Dem). Anyway, my call for WA-01 at the moment would be tilt Dem based in part on the Trende chat.  In other words, the Dems have about a 3-2 chance of winning it, or very close to those odds.

[Ogre Mage]

I concur that this is a Lean D race.  DelBene can self-fund and her home base is the wealthy Medina area of the district where she has many donors.  While some commentators on the left criticized her mild, low-key liberalism, the fact is she will have a better chance at swing voters than Koster, who has ties to the Tea Party and has taken very radical right positions (abolish the Dept. of Education, abolish the IRS, against adoption by gay parents, opposes abortion in cases of rape or incest).  That is unlikely to play well in this swing district, particularly the King County areas.

[Alcon]

We don't have provisional ballots, really, in Washington anymore.  Late ballots tend to skew Democratic in Washington, although moreso in Generals (especially King.)  Pierce County late ballots, for instance, skewed strongly Republican this year, like in some past primaries.

[BigSkyBob]

Koster it seems ended up at 44% in the primary. Likely D.

Hard to say Koster ends up at 44%. The SOS website claims King County finished counting all their returned ballots, while the rest of the district has not.

In any case, one party had a competitive primary, while the other did not.

Late ballots always skew Democratic in Washington. It doesn't really matter what county, at least on the west side.

Possibly, but, I wasn't referring to "late ballots." I was referring to the ballots on hand as of election day.

By late ballots, I meant those counted after election day.

I was refering to the poll of ballots that both,

1) Had yet to be counted, what you refer to as "late ballots;" and

2) Had arrived at the election department on or before election day.

Koster is now up to 44.78%, probably due to the counties outside of King not counting all the received ballots they had on election day.