A mere 2.5%.....

[morgieb]

lol @ nothing happening in McGovern/Nixon, and only one state flipping in Landon/Roosevelt.

Good stuff so far. Interesting that Kennedy/Nixon and Carter/Ford would look like blowouts under this.

[BritishDixie]

1980 with a 2.5% swing to Carter

Reagan/Bush: Republican: 354: 48.25%
Carter/Mondale: Democratic: 184: 43.51%
Anderson/Lucey: Independent: 0: 6.61%

Carter makes big gains in the electoral vote, unting simultaneously the most conservative and liberal regions of the country. This shows how the south was still on a knife edge in pre-Reagan revolution elections. Here Carter nets 7 of the 11 former Confederate states, sweeping the deep south, aside from Louisiana. He also wins back states like New York and Massachusetts, which he probably lost due to Anderson.

1980 with a 2.5% swing to both Carter and Anderson, with a 5% swing against Reagan

Reagan/Bush: Republican: 281: 45.75%
Carter/Mondale: Democratic: 257: 43.51%
Anderson/Lucey: Independent: 0: 9.11%

Carter comes very close to defeating Reagan under this scenario. Besides his previous gains, he also picks up further southern states, like Louisiana, and also wins back further states in the rust belt, such as Pennsylvania. However Carter remains shut out of the west.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Can I see a 2.5% swing to Carter in 1976?

[BritishDixie]

Can I see a 2.5% swing to Carter in 1976?

1976 with a 2.5% swing to Carter

Carter/Mondale: Democratic: 443: 52.58%
Ford/Dole: Republican: 95: 45.52%

Carter crushes Ford in a landslide. He makes solid gains in the west and mid-west. Ford's electoral map looks a bit like Dewey's 1944 defeat.

[BritishDixie]

1984

Reagan/Bush: 508: 56.27%
Mondale/Gennaro: Democratic: 30: 43.06%

Mondale picks up two traditionally solid Democratic states, but other than that he picks up nothing.

1988

Bush/Quayle: 301: 50.87%
Dukakis/Bentsen: Democratic: 237: 48.15%

Reveals how hollow Bush's "landslide" in 1988 was. Dukakis picks up a nmuber of states that foreshadow Bill Clinton's victories in the 1990's. New Mexico goes Democratic, when it was once a solidly Republican state. Dukakis does better on the farm belt, winning Missouri as well as the three states he actually won in that region. He also captures states like Pennsylvania and Illinois, probably a result of the suburbs shifting left. He also captures Maryland, which probably only went Republican due to "Willie Horton".

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Surprised about Michigan in '88.

[BritishDixie]

Surprised about Michigan in '88.

Michigan was more like Indiana and Ohio back then as opposed to Illinois or Wisconsin.

[President von Cat]

This thread is amazing. I'm especially looking forward to 2000, 2004, and 2008.

Could you show us what 1984 would have looked like with a 5 or 10 point swing to Mondale? Curious as how how deep Reagan's victory was.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Dixie is banned for multiple (and trolling) accounts. I suppose I can continue, however. I can tell you off the top of my head that Mondale needed a 10% swing to break even in the PV and eek out a win in the electoral college.

[President von Cat]

Oh, thats a shame. Would be interested in someone picking up where h/she left off. I know I could just try and look it up myself but.. umm.. muffins.

[morgieb]

1992

Bush/Quayle: 275: 39.95%
Clinton/Gore: 263: 40.51%

A surprising result. 2000 redux - Democrats win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote.

If 2.5% was given to Perot rather than Bush...

Enough to flip some close states, but doesn't change the dynamic of the election.

Clinton/Gore: 317: 40.51%
Bush/Quayle: 221: 37.45%

[morgieb]

1996

Clinton/Gore: 348: 46.74%
Dole/Kemp: 190: 43.21%

Dole flips a few states, but while the PV narrows quite a bit, the EV doesn't so much.

[morgieb]

Lost my 2000 results, but here's the 2004 results....

Kerry/Edwards: 298: 50.81%
Bush/Cheney: 240: 48.27%

Kerry wins, although a 2000-esque win in Florida keeps his margin down.

[Jerseyrules]

What would it look like if bush got an extra 2.5% in both 2000 and 04?

[morgieb]

What would it look like if bush got an extra 2.5% in both 2000 and 04?

2000 - real map + Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Oregon (and probably one of Maine's CD's). (if we add 2.5% to Gore's total, he'd pick up Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Tennessee).

2004:

Bush/Cheney: 355: 53.11%
Kerry/Edwards: 183: 45.98%

A big win for Bush, picking up most of the swing states, and making his win looking like Obama's 08 win.

2008, ftr:

Obama/Biden: 291: 50.43%
McCain/Palin: 247: 48.16%

Enough to flip a few states and make the EV narrow-ish, but not enough to change the election.

[old timey villain]

Does anybody wanna do 1992 with a 2.5 swing to Clinton. I think there's a ton of states he would have picked up with that shift.

[TNF]

2.5% swing to Clinton in '92 allows him to pickup Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, but that's it.

5% swing to Mondale in 1984

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Mondale Victory:

It requires a 10% swing.

Mondale/Ferraro: 279: 50.56%
Reagan/Bush: 259: 48.77%

[mondale84]

Mondale Victory:

It requires a 10% swing.

Mondale/Ferraro: 279: 50.56%
Reagan/Bush: 259: 48.77%

A beautiful map!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Why was Tennessee more Democratic than Missouri or Arkansas?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Why was Tennessee more Democratic than Missouri or Arkansas?

I'm not entirely sure. Al Gore may have had reverse coattails: he won his Senate election with an excess of 60% of the vote.

[Jerseyrules]

Mondale Victory:

It requires a 10% swing.

Mondale/Ferraro: 279: 50.56%
Reagan/Bush: 259: 48.77%

A beautiful fugly map!

[Sec. of State Superique]

What would it look like if bush got an extra 2.5% in both 2000 and 04?

2008, ftr:

Obama/Biden: 291: 50.43%
McCain/Palin: 247: 48.16%

Enough to flip a few states and make the EV narrow-ish, but not enough to change the election.

That is wrong, Ohio and Florida would keep on  Obama side, Obama would win florida with 49,66% margin and McCain would get 49,35%.

Ohio - Obama 50,13% / McCain 48,05%

NC - Obama 48,45% / McCain 50,63%
IN - Obama 48,6% / McCain 50,07%

Indiana and North Carolina would go to McCain.

The EV is also wrong, it was supposed to be  Obama 51,62% / McCain 46,85%

So, a 2,5% swing to McCain means a 2012 Election =P