welcome to the forum, renegade!
I think it will be extremely close right up until early Wednesday morning after the election. As we've mentioned before, Obama has the unfortunate task of speaking just 12-13 hours before the August Jobs Report, which if its mediocre or underwhelming, then that bounce is nullified and could turn into a bounce for Romney. I think Obama's next best chance for a bounce is, like you said, at the debates, but there again Romney will be more on his game in October than he was at the primary debates when he was cruising to the nomination from Day 1. He knows he's not going to cruise to winning the election, but neither is the other guy. Romney will be more focused than we've seen him in the three debates.
Thanks! And yes, I agree, the debates will be a turning point for both sides, so honestly, at least to me, opinion polls don't display a relevant map until mid-late October. Right now, I think both sides should heavily focus on Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. With the electoral value of Florida being so high, it very well may be the make-or-break state, as it unfortunately was in 2000. At the same time, the four other aforementioned states have that same potential, especially Ohio. It will be interesting, but it is my gut feeling that unless something drastic happens, Obama will win the election with a little less comfort than in 2008, but not as close as the 2000 and 2004 elections were.
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