NV: Public Policy Polling: Obama at 50%, but Romney close behind

[Miles]

New Poll: Nevada President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-08-26

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[krazen1211]

Looks correct.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think it looks legit, but they may be underestimating the Dem advantage. We tend to over perform on election day, as Hispanics don't respond much to polls but support us strongly. Obama plus 6-10 on election day.

[krazen1211]

I think we need a new Clinton1996 rule where we simply add 5 points to the Democrat in any sort of polling from any pollster.

[NVGonzalez]

They are using a likely voter model, seem to be underpolling the hispanics and of course the ground game here is a no contest.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think we need a new Clinton1996 rule where we simply add 5 points to the Democrat in any sort of polling from any pollster.

I don't add 6 points to every pollster. It's just that Democrats in Nevada usually over perform on election day. Look at Nevada polling from 2008. Obama was up by about 6 or so in polling there and he won by 12. Reid was trailing there in 2010 and he won by 5. The last poll had him down 48-45. He won 50-45.

[krazen1211]

I think we need a new Clinton1996 rule where we simply add 5 points to the Democrat in any sort of polling from any pollster.

I don't add 6 points to every pollster. It's just that Democrats in Nevada usually over perform on election day. Look at Nevada polling from 2008. Obama was up by about 6 or so in polling there and he won by 12. Reid was trailing there in 2010 and he won by 5. The last poll had him down 48-45. He won 50-45.

Such a conclusion is heavily exaggerated based on a very small sample of elections. Polling was perfectly fine in the 2006 Senate race.

 This poll has 18% of respondents as Hispanic and somehow someone comes to the bizarre conclusion that Hispanics are underpolled.

[pbrower2a]

I think we need a new Clinton1996 rule where we simply add 5 points to the Democrat in any sort of polling from any pollster.

I don't add 6 points to every pollster. It's just that Democrats in Nevada usually over perform on election day. Look at Nevada polling from 2008. Obama was up by about 6 or so in polling there and he won by 12. Reid was trailing there in 2010 and he won by 5. The last poll had him down 48-45. He won 50-45.

Such a conclusion is heavily exaggerated based on a very small sample of elections. Polling was perfectly fine in the 2006 Senate race.

 This poll has 18% of respondents as Hispanic and somehow someone comes to the bizarre conclusion that Hispanics are underpolled.

2006 -- bad Senate race. Incumbent with hidden damage vs. the son of one of the worst Presidents in American history.

[krazen1211]

I think we need a new Clinton1996 rule where we simply add 5 points to the Democrat in any sort of polling from any pollster.

I don't add 6 points to every pollster. It's just that Democrats in Nevada usually over perform on election day. Look at Nevada polling from 2008. Obama was up by about 6 or so in polling there and he won by 12. Reid was trailing there in 2010 and he won by 5. The last poll had him down 48-45. He won 50-45.

Such a conclusion is heavily exaggerated based on a very small sample of elections. Polling was perfectly fine in the 2006 Senate race.

 This poll has 18% of respondents as Hispanic and somehow someone comes to the bizarre conclusion that Hispanics are underpolled.

2006 -- bad Senate race. Incumbent with hidden damage vs. the son of one of the worst Presidents in American history.

What the heck is a bad senate race?

So this bizarre polling rule is made by:

1. Looking at a small handful of elections.
2. Discarding elections that don't fit the rule.
3. Coming up with a bizarre explanation of 'underpolling Hispanics' when hispanics are 18% of the poll.

Quite interesting.

[timothyinMD]

I doubt the electorate will be 10% black, probably 8%

Obama is in miserable shape with Nevada independents.  This will be a very close contest on Nov 6

[J. J.]

I think it looks legit, but they may be underestimating the Dem advantage. We tend to over perform on election day, as Hispanics don't respond much to polls but support us strongly. Obama plus 6-10 on election day.

I think you might be right, but don't tell Alcon. 

[morgieb]

Surprisingly few undecideds.

[MorningInAmerica]

PPPs last poll of Nevada from June had Obama leading 48-42%.

Also, i haven't checked the internals myself, but if Krazen is right and PPP polled 18% Hispanics, how could anyone POSSIBLY argue that they under-polled Hispanics? They made up 15% of the Nevada electorate in 2008, a year that saw record Hispanic and Democrat turnout. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#NVP00p1

[Sbane]

Yeah, I don't see how this under sampled Hispanics. For that matter did polls under sample Hispanics in 2010 or 2008? There can be other reasons for polls being off other than Hispanic turnout.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     With its large hispanic population, Nevada is a state that Romney should be doing well in if he is going to win. This has to be encouraging news for his campaign.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah, I don't see how this under sampled Hispanics. For that matter did polls under sample Hispanics in 2010 or 2008? There can be other reasons for polls being off other than Hispanic turnout.

I didn't say they undersampled Hispanics, but that Hispanics have a lower response rate than other demographics. Usually the Democrats under poll in Nevada because when Hispanics vote, they go overwhelmingly Dem.