Um... there are apparently 600,000 still uncounted ballots in Arizona

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.wivb.com/dpp/onpolitix/ap_exit_polls/More-than-602000-ballots-in-Ariz-still-uncounted_34633730

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That's a lot, considering at "100% reporting" only 1.6 million ballots have been counted. In 2008 there were over 2.2 total votes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm pretty sure we've got at least 2 million here in California.

[Oakvale]

That's... interesting. How's the margin in the Senate race?

[greenforest32]

% chance Carmona closes the 80,000 vote/4.8% margin deficit with these and wins the Senate seat?

[Antonio the Sixth]

% chance Carmona closes the 80,000 vote/4.8% margin deficit with these and wins the Senate seat?

Oh God, this would be the icing on the cake.

Highly doubt it, though.

[Lief 🗽]

The margin will narrow but I don't think it's very likely that it's enough to turn around Carmona's deficit.

[fj39e20]

The margin will narrow but I don't think it's very likely that it's enough to turn around Carmona's deficit.

With 2/3rds of the 600k from Maricopa definitely not.

[Bacon King]

112k of the early voters statewide are Hispanic, including 71k in Maricopa County (72% of Hispanics voted for Carmona, per exit polls). In addition, provisional ballots tend to skew overwhelmingly to the Democrats (anyone remember MN '08? ).

I just math'd these numbers out, and depending on a few things (how many provisional ballots get accepted, whether white early voters had a different behavior than white election day voters, whether hispanics were disproportionately forced to cast provisional ballots like some are claiming, etc.) then these uncounted ballots have a Democratic margin of 50k to 100k.

Romney still wins the Presidential vote, Barber will almost certainly end up ahead in AZ-2, Arpaio probably does win re-election as sherriff. Senate race too close to call until these votes are counted.

[afleitch]

http://www2.tbo.com/news/politics/2012/nov/07/more-than-600000-ballots-in-ariz-still-uncounted-ar-558487/

"More than 600,000 early and provisional ballots statewide have yet to be processed and counted, Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett said Wednesday.

Of that total, nearly 460,000 votes still haven't been counted in Maricopa County, and that's complicating the ability to call several close races throughout Arizona.

Bennett said the uncounted ballot total was 602,334 as of Wednesday, including Maricopa County's 344,000 uncounted early ballots and 115,000 provisional ballots yet to be verified.

State law gives the counties 10 calendar days until Nov. 16 to verify and process the remaining early and provisional ballots.

A state canvass to certify official election results for federal, statewide and legislative races is scheduled Dec. 3."

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This likely strengthens Sinema's margin and puts Barber over the top.

[Holmes]

This likely strengthens Sinema's margin and puts Barber over the top.

Hopefully.

This reminds me of California 2010, when we were waiting on this kind of thing for the attorney general race.

[Bacon King]

Topics merged

[Lief 🗽]

From twitter:

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Interesting...

[hawkeye59]

From twitter:

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Interesting...

Carmona has to win by 13%

[philly09]

From @Taniel

Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) concedes

[Antonio the Sixth]

From twitter:

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Interesting...

Carmona has to win by 13%

Yeah, very hard to see him winning.

So, this will only narrow the gap and make the result more frustrating. Damn.