2006 from a Democrats perspective...

I titled the thread "2006 from a Democrats perspective..." because this analysis is from a Democrats perspective, so it may be a little biased.

Each race is ranked from [+ + +] (Democrat) to [- - -] (Republican). Toss ups are marked by [=].

*(+) Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) A freshman senator in a swing state, Stabenow’s possible challengers include Oakland County Sheriff and former state senator Mike Bouchard, who will announce a formal candidacy in a few weeks, Oakland County prosecutor David Gorcyca, and Peter Cummings, the son-in-law of GOP financier Max Fisher. The most dangerous potential challenger, Rep. Candice Miller, will not run.

*(=) Minnesota: With Mark Dayton’s decision not to run for re-election, this race is completely up in the air. Al Franken has declined to run for the seat, and former Senator Rod Grams (R) has entered the race. Reps. Mark Kennedy (R) and Gil Gutretcht (R) are expected to run as well. While no Democrats have declared yet, many are rumored to be considering a run, including Alan Page, Mike Ciresi, Mike Hatch, Bud Philbrook, Betty McCollum, Judy Dutcher, Garrison Keillor, and Bill Luther. Whether Dayton’s decision will help or hurt the Democrats’ chances of retaining this seat is up for debate, though many consider the advantages of finding a stronger candidate than Dayton to be greater than his slight advantage as an incumbent.

*(- -) Missouri: Jim Talent (R) A possible Democratic pickup if a strong candidate emerges, otherwise Talent shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping his seat in Republican Missouri. Possible democrats include Ex-Governor Roger Wilson, ex-Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.

*(+) Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D) A conservative Democrat in a heavily Republican state, Nelson is in a situation similar to Daschle’s in 2004. However, Osborne has indicated that he will not run, and with the appointment of popular Governor Johanns as Secretary of Agriculture, Nelson’s chances are looking better as he does not have a strong Republican challenger at the moment.

*(+ +) North Dakota: Kent Conrad (D): Fellow Democrat Byron Dorgon cruised to victory in this very red state, and Conrad is expected to do the same. However, if popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven runs, as Bush is reportedly urging him to, Conrad could have a tough race.

*(-) Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R): Pennsylvania is the highest priority race for Democrats in 2006, and our best chance to pick up a seat. Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. has met with party officials about running, and his candidacy seems likely. Other candidates for the seat include former Treasurer Barbara Hafer, 2004 Senate candidate and former U.S. Rep Joe Hoeffel, and Dr. Chuck Pennacchio, a private citizen. However, party officials seem determined to choose a candidate early on to avoid a bloody and damaging primary, and so they can concentrate all of their efforts against Santorum.

*(-) Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee (R): Chafee is in a difficult position: a Republican in one of the most liberal states, and a moderate in the Republican Party. Chafee is likely to face a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) announced his candidacy this week, and Representative James Langevin is likely to run as well. Representative Patrick Kennedy has stated that he will not run. The Club for Growth announced this week that it will spend $10 million to defeat Chafee and other RINOs during the primaries.

*(=) Tennessee: Bill Frist is retiring from the Senate due to a self imposed two term limit. Democratic Representative Harold Ford Jr. is the front runner for Democratic nomination. Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is likely to be the top priority for TN Republicans, so Ford may have a shot if the strongest Republican candidate runs for governor, leaving a weaker candidate for the Senate.

*(- -) Texas: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): Hutchison is likely going to leave the senate to run for Governor. While some Democrats hope that the right candidate could win the open seat, our chances are slim. Attorney Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) has declared her candidacy for the seat, and Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has declared his intention to run if Hutchison runs for Governor.

*(+ +) Wisconsin: Herb Kohl (D): Kohl has deep pockets and will be able to out spend just about any competition. Kohl should have little trouble winning another term. Kohl has started hiring campaign staff, and will not be retiring. While former Governor Tommy Thompson could be a threat, Thompson has indicated that he is more interested in running for Governor, if anything.

*(- -) Arizona: Jon Kyl (R): A likely Republican hold, although Arizona State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson might have a chance.

*(+ + +) California: Dianne Feinstein (D): Feinstein will have an easy victory.

*(+ +) Connecticut: Joe Lieberman (D): Lieberman is extremely popular in Connecticut, though his complete support for Bush’s foreign policy angers many Democrats. While the grassroots would support a primary challenge, assuming Lieberman wins the primary he will have no trouble getting elected.

*(+ + +) Delaware: Thomas Carper (D): Carper should have no trouble winning re-election.

*(+) Florida: Bill Nelson (D): Nelson is the last Democrat in statewide office. He will face a hard fight in this swing state. Rep. Katherine Harris (R) of 2000 Florida election infamy, is expected to be one of many Republicans to challenge him.

*(+ + +) Hawaii: Daniel Akaka (D): Akaka will have no problem winning another term.

*(- - -) Indiana: Richard Lugar (R): Indiana is solidly red. Democrats have no chance against Lugar.

*(- - -) Maine: Olympia Snowe (R): Olympia Snowe the most popular politician in Maine and can keep this seat as long as she wants it. The rumors of Snowe possibly running for Governor are considered false. While many Democrats hope that Snowe, who is labeled a RINO by many conservatives, will switch parties or declare herself an Independent, this also seem unlikely.

*(+ + +) Maryland: Paul Sarbanes (D): Sarbanes will have no trouble winning another term.

*(+ + +) Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D): Kennedy is a Massachusetts institution and will have no trouble winning re-election.

*(- - -) Mississippi: Trent Lott (R) Despite his removal from Senate Majority Leader, Trent Lott is very popular in Mississippi, and shouldn’t have any trouble getting elected.

*(-) Montana: Conrad Burns (R): Newly elected Governor Brian Schweitzer nearly captured this seat in 2000. With new Democratic control of both the State Senate and House, Montana seems to be trending Democratic. A possible pickup with the right candidate, such as Attorney General Mike McGrath.

*(- -) Nevada: John Ensign (R): Nevada was a competitive swing state in 2004, and if a strong candidate such as Representative Shelley Berkley runs against Ensign this senate seat could possibly turn from red to blue. However, most Democrats are focusing on the Governor’s race instead.

*(+ +) New Jersey: Jon Corzine (D): Corzine is running for governor of New Jersey so this seat is likely to be open. While moderate Republicans do well in New Jersey, Democrats shouldn’t have a problem holding the seat.

*(+ + +) New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman (D): Bingaman should not have a problem winning another term, assuming he does not retire. If he does, this seat could be in play.

*(+ +) New York: Hillary Clinton (D): Now that both Rudy Giuliani and Governor Pataki have declined to enter the race, it is unlikely that the Republicans will be able to mount a strong challenge against Clinton. However, expect a heavily funded Republican challenge to at least make the seat somewhat competitive.

*(- -) Ohio: Mike Dewine (R): Most Ohio Democrats are focusing on the open Governor’s office in 2006, but if a strong Democrat enters the race, we might have a slim chance.

*(- - -) Utah: Orrin Hatch (R): This seat is Hatch’s until he retires.

*(+ + +) Vermont: James Jeffords (I): Jeffords should have no trouble winning another term. However, if he retires, Independent Rep. Bernie Sanders and popular Republican Governor Jim Douglas could make this race interesting.

*(- -) Virginia: George Allen (R) Unless popular Governor Mark Warner jumps into this race (fairly unlikely at this point), Allen shouldn’t have a problem getting reelected.

*(+ +) Washington: Maria Cantwell (D): Democrat Patty Murray had no trouble winning re-election in 2004. Cantwell shouldn’t have a problem either, unless failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi enters the race.

*(+ + +) West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D) Byrd will hold this seat as long as he wants it, and has indicated that he will not retire.

*(- - -) Wyoming: Craig Thomas (R) Another Republican hold. Thomas is popular in this conservative state.

source: http://oursenate.com/

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