In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.
Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.
If Clinton carries VA and NH how does GOP get to 270? (Assuming they pick up FL, OH, CO, and IA)
You are left with....
WI (unlikely w/o Walker and still difficult with him),
NV? (Looks more and more like NM which the GOP gave up on in 2012)
PA? (Much bigger and more expensive than NH and Hillary is better fit than Obama)
after that you get into fantasy land of turning MI, MN, OR, or NM into a tipping point.