1996: Quayle v Wilder

[bobloblaw]

1990: GHW Bush refuses to raise taxes.
The recession of 1990-91 is less severe.
The recovery of 1992 is stronger
Buchanan doesnt run as Bush doesnt betray his 1988 promise on taxes
The GOP is united in 1992 and no Buchanan speech at the 92 convention.
Bush defeats Clinton with or without Perot running.

1993-96
Economy grows just as fast as it did under Clinton. Internet results in strong economy.
1994: GOP losses in the midterms are minimal but the GOP victories at the state level dont materialize. Ma Richards defeats GW Bush by 2 points in TX. Kathleen Brown wins in CA by 1 point. Mario Cuomo defeats George Pataki in NY by 10 points.

1996:
The GOP despite 16 successful years is divided.
Quayle: Favorite of social and religious conservatives but GOP fears he is unelectable.
Kemp: Favorite of supply siders
Powell: Favorite of hawks even though Powell isnt a hawk
Jim Edgar: Favorite of moderates. Edgar was one of the few GOP stars in 1994 easily beating Dawn Clark Netsch for re-election in a year where the GOP did poorly at the state level.
John Engler: See Jim Edgar

Dems
Clinton: After horrible speech at 1988 convention, 1992 loss and 1993 divorce to Hillary Rodham (she claims massive infidelity), Clinton is seen as a loser. He is enjoying his single life in Little Rock with orgies at the gov mansion.
Gore: Part of the Clinton/Gore loss but supported by Blue Dogs
Bradley: Supported by liberals
Mitchell: Supported by liberals
Nunn: Same as Gore. Might divide the Blue Dog vote
Brown: Supported by liberals. Ran in 92, but gets a second look in 96.
Cuomo: Cant decide to run in 1996 or not.

This leaves Doug Wilder as the candidate. Unites blacks, blue dogs and acceptable to liberals.

[Jerseyrules]

If Desert Storm still happens, I could see Powell easily capturing the nomination.  He was the RNC's dream candidate.  The establishment and big money donors would all flock to Powell and I'd be willing to bet President Bush would throw his weight/influence/infrastructure behind Powell.  He was a war hero, definitely acceptable to all factions of the GOP, and the thing at the back of nearly all their minds is getting a latter-day Eisenhower into the White House, not to mention making a serious play for the African American vote.  I'd be willing to bet 30% is not out of reach.

Although he's the sitting VP, I really don't see how Quayle, or any other Republican for that matter, has a snowball's chance in H#ll against Powell.

Especially after 16 years of GOP control, lack of major success in TTL 94, they would coalesce behind the most electable candidate, which would be Powell by far.  He'd have a great deal of freedom as to the VP candidate, perhaps choosing Elizabeth Dole (though this might be avoided for fear of being seen as symbolism for symbolism's sake) or Kemp (to placate the right, especially social conservatives).  A moderate purple state governor like Engler might also be a good pick.