Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[Ben.]

Its seems (according to the ever reliable LibDem Watch) that Mrs Dunn has published some second rate poetry ...

For a Divorce Barrister talking about…  

“Slash your tyres, Burn your football shirt, And slice up your clothes. Put prawns in your drains, Paint on your car And worms in your fridge. Destroy your plants, Kidnap your dogs And scratch your CDs. Smash up your TV, Spend all your cash”

…Thankfully its getting some play in the local media, it would be very difficult to use directly by any of the party’s… sadly, but it makes Dunn look pretty silly.

[Ben.]

Should be going up on Tuesday... will report back Friday or Saturday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Should be going up on Tuesday... will report back Friday or Saturday.

Are you in England now Ben?

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been told that a poll for Channel 4 News had Wright with a big lead: anyone got any details?

[Ben.]

Yeah Dave I’m back in the UK , the Channel 4 Poll went like this…


Labour : 53%

Liberal Demoprat : 20%

Conservative : 13%

UKIP : 9%

Others : 5%

…those figures are based on those “Most Likely to Vote”, which should be more clear than the general poll figures of probable voters.  

My own attitude is that the Channel 4 Poll represents the kind of figures that Labour could expect in a general election with good turnout.

Having just this minute gotten back from Hartlepool, I’m fairly sure that Labour will hold the seat.

A combination of factors are helping Labour, the Labour candidate is local and very popular (especially with the “Labour Granny Vote”  ) in contrast to the Liberal Candidate who has little following and who’s campaign looks to be losing steam, its very interesting to note that Labour are winning the sign war, something, that no matter what the result, the Liberals usually win hands down. At the same time the “hospital issue” has been pretty much closed off by Labour, in a way very similar to “Pensioner's Bus Passes” in Leicester and the reaction of the LibDems seems to be pretty similar to Labour’s in Leicester and Liberal attacks on the issue of crime have fallen pretty flat especially after Wright received the endorsement of Ray Mallon.

In the next few days it’s likely that the LibDems will either look to scale back their work in the seat or escalate and there seems to be some indecision over what to do within the Liberal Campaign.

As for UKIP and Conservatives they have effectively split the traditional conservative core vote in the seat and the Conservatives one aim seems to be to avoid coming fourth behind UKIP, which they should manage. While “Respect” continue to get no where, that said they will probably win a noticeable number of votes as they have a solid local candidate but will still be hovering bellow 5%.

So I’d say that Labour Should win the seat and it’ll probably break down something like this…

Labour : 37%

LibDem : 30%

Conservative : 15%

UKIP : 12%

Respect : 4%

Others : 4%

…with a low turnout of around 33% or so I would guess. But overall it was a really positive experience and a really "switched on" campaign team and excellent candidate, both in stark contrast to what was the case when I was in Leicester. The race is Labour’s to lose IMHO and after Brent and Leicester the team up there and the bus loads of activist coming up there seem to have no intention of letting a solid win slip through their fingers.

[Ben.]

A point about the Ch4 Poll, and if someone could get Vorlon to take a look that really would be great, yeah he has no real interest in the international side of things but what the hay

In Brum HH, there was a poll that had a similar result closer to polling day, that said in Brum HH a large section of the Labour vote (ie. Muslim and Asian voters) were ready to defect and there was a very visible and aggressive LibDem campaign, this was not the case in Hartlepool while I was there, the Labour vote is solid but just needs to be gotten to the polls and Labour is winning the campaign on the ground… we just can’t let this one slip! Its ours if we don’t take anything for granted! So I urge every Labour Member or sympathiser to get up there, bus are being scrambled, just contact your regional offices and get up there! Every thing is paid for and it’s all hands on deck!              

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've checked and the poll was done by NOP, who did a load of polls for the Welsh election in 2003.

Their "national" poll over-estimated Plaid by a lot (and slightly underestimated Labour and the Tories), they also did three constituancy polls.
Caerphilly, Wrexham, Vale of Glamorgan.
They got all right (though they overestimated Marek in Wrexham. The rat squeaked back in via a low turnout)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for details of that poll Ben. I'm beginning to think I'm too encrosed in US politics to have noticed.

The Hartlepool Labour Party picked a sound local candidate and I think this poll reflects that.

Dave

P.S. Haven't managed to get to Hartlepool lately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDem candidate has made some... er... ill advised remarks in a radio interview:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listenagain/ram/today5_hartlepool_20040924.ram

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In what Andrew Stevens has aptly described as "When Crap Councillers Attack": http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,11043,1314344,00.html

What a bunch of idiotic twats. If Wright loses it'll be these buggers' fault.

[minionofmidas]

Did I get this right the election is tomorrow?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did I get this right the election is tomorrow?

Yes... I think that Wright should win... but it's Hartlepool so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bookies have Labour as heavy favourites... I think they may have got Brum HH wrong (can't remember exactly), but they got all four other by-elections this Parliament right so...
Heres hoping

[Ben.]

Bookies have Labour as heavy favourites... I think they may have got Brum HH wrong (can't remember exactly), but they got all four other by-elections this Parliament right so...
Heres hoping

Lib/Dems where even in Brum HH on polling day I think, to be fair on polling day they did win by 70 votes, the postal ballots saved Byrne... In Hartlepool I think Wright will have a big lead on the postal ballots.. but we will see... if Labour lose Hartlepool, then things really are bad

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm quietly confident that Labour will hold Hartlepool. I just hope Labour are doing to some good old fashioned door knocking to get their vote out.

Apathy is the greatest threat to Labour.

I'd have been there myself but pops is in hospital.

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm quietly confident that Labour will hold Hartlepool. I just hope Labour are doing to some good old fashioned door knocking to get their vote out.

Apathy is the greatest threat to Labour.

I'd have been there myself but pops is in hospital.

Dave

What's the weather like?

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm quietly confident that Labour will hold Hartlepool. I just hope Labour are doing to some good old fashioned door knocking to get their vote out.

Apathy is the greatest threat to Labour.

I'd have been there myself but pops is in hospital.

Dave

What's the weather like?

Not sure about Hartlepool but Durham's OK. A few spots of rain earlier on but nothing drenching.

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm quietly confident that Labour will hold Hartlepool. I just hope Labour are doing to some good old fashioned door knocking to get their vote out.

Apathy is the greatest threat to Labour.

I'd have been there myself but pops is in hospital.

Dave

What's the weather like?

Not sure about Hartlepool but Durham's OK. A few spots of rain earlier on but nothing drenching.

Dave

Good news then

[Filuwaúrdjan]

if Labour lose Hartlepool, then things really are bad

Maybe, maybe not... the by-election has been fought almost exclusivly over local issues so...

I think that Wright *should* win (and if it were almost any other seat in the North East, Labour would win easily... but this is a town that voted for a man in a monkey suit to be it's mayor so...) if only because my spy tells me that people have been increasingly irritated by the LibDems campaign style.

From what I hear, local journo's reckon that Wright will win by about 1000 to 3000 votes... national journo's seem to agree as there's not been a lot of media coverage (unlike the Midlands Two).

Turnout, turnout, turnout...