NY-Siena: Clinton+21, Trump+27

[Tender Branson]

Former Secretary of State Clinton would beat U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 55 percent to 34 percent, with 10 percent undecided, if the Democratic primary were held today, according to the poll. Clinton's lead was unchanged from the results of a Siena poll conducted a month ago.

Millionaire businessman Trump stretched his lead among New York Republican voters to 27 percentage points, 45 percent to 18 percent over both Ohio Gov. John Kasich and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas finishing fourth, according to the poll.

...

The Siena poll of 800 New York voters was conducted Feb. 28 to March 3, and released six weeks before New York holds its presidential primary election, on April 19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

http://www.syracuse.com/state/index.ssf/2016/03/poll_trump_clinton_hold_commanding_leads_among_new_york_voters.html

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-03-03

Summary:

Trump:	45%
Kasich:	18%
Rubio:	18%
Cruz:	11%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-03-03

Summary:

Clinton:	55%
Sanders:	34%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Landslide Lyndon]

But, but, but, the Sanders campaign said that New Yorkers will vote for the guy from Brooklyn.

[President Johnson]

But when all Republicans drop out and unite behind Rubio, The Donald gets beaten. Marco is the true winner of that poll!

[Likely Voter]

But, but, but, the Sanders campaign said that New Yorkers will vote for the guy from Brooklyn.

I think the theory is there are 5 weeks between super March 15 Tuesday and NY and in that period there are 8 states, all of which Sanders could win, therefore changing the dynamics of the race.  Not sure it will all work out that way, but so goes the theory.  Of course if you believe momentum plays such a big role still then this theory relies on having a good showing on March 15 and that relies on winning MI tomorrow.

[The Free North]

New York is not winner take all so I don't think it matters as much as you might initially think.

Kasich in 2nd is a bit surprising and Cruz in 4th is of course due to 'muh NY values'.

[BundouYMB]

But, but, but, the Sanders campaign said that New Yorkers will vote for the guy from Brooklyn.

I think the theory is there are 5 weeks between super March 15 Tuesday and NY and in that period there are 8 states, all of which Sanders could win, therefore changing the dynamics of the race.  Not sure it will all work out that way, but so goes the theory.  Of course if you believe momentum plays such a big role still then this theory relies on having a good showing on March 15 and that relies on winning MI tomorrow.

(Bold by me.)

That's really not plausible. There's only been polling for 1/8 states (Arizona) where Clinton has had huge 25-40 point margins in all the polls. It would take an awful lot of momentum to overturn that. So even if Sanders swept every other state we don't have data for (which I doubt he will -- Clinton should win Hawaii at least) a 8/8 sweep isn't plausible because of Arizona, even if he has the big mo coming out of March 15 (which I also doubt he will, but I digress.)

[IceSpear]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

[This account no longer in use.]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

[IceSpear]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Oh please. There has been constant talk about how he has a chance of winning it. It's a ludicrous wet dream. He'll do massively better than Obama Upstate, but whatever gains he makes there will be cancelled out and more by Hillary completely dominating NYC, unlike in 08. On top of that, it's a closed primary. Also, black people.

[This account no longer in use.]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Oh please. There has been constant talk about how he has a chance of winning it. It's a ludicrous wet dream. He'll do massively better than Obama Upstate, but whatever gains he makes there will be cancelled out and more by Hillary completely dominating NYC, unlike in 08. On top of that, it's a closed primary. Also, black people.

I've never heard anybody besides hacks like Branson and Jfern saying it. The people who are grounded in reality realize that it'll never happen, and that Sanders didn't expect to win the nomination in the first place.

[Landslide Lyndon]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Shut up boy.

@aterkel

Sanders strategist Tad Devine on MSNBC predicts a “big showdown” in NY with Clinton. Says the “guy from Brooklyn” has a good shot there

[Averroës Nix]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Oh please. There has been constant talk about how he has a chance of winning it. It's a ludicrous wet dream. He'll do massively better than Obama Upstate, but whatever gains he makes there will be cancelled out and more by Hillary completely dominating NYC, unlike in 08. On top of that, it's a closed primary. Also, black people.

I'd be shocked if he does as well as this poll shows. Crosstabs indicate that he's running weaker in the downstate suburbs than he is in the city, which would also be a shocker.

[This account no longer in use.]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Shut up boy.

@aterkel

Sanders strategist Tad Devine on MSNBC predicts a “big showdown” in NY with Clinton. Says the “guy from Brooklyn” has a good shot there

No need to be so rude and uptight there, Lyndon.

[Holmes]

B-b-b-b-but I thought Bernie would win NY in a landslide!

Nice try, but NOBODY ever said that. Yes, I do think it's a bit crooked that the NY registration deadline was before the first Democratic debate, but even if it wasn't, I doubt that Clinton would lose.

Oh please. There has been constant talk about how he has a chance of winning it. It's a ludicrous wet dream. He'll do massively better than Obama Upstate, but whatever gains he makes there will be cancelled out and more by Hillary completely dominating NYC, unlike in 08. On top of that, it's a closed primary. Also, black people.

I'd be shocked if he does as well as this poll shows. Crosstabs indicate that he's running weaker in the downstate suburbs than he is in the city, which would also be a shocker.

Dat Brooklyn bump.

[Eraserhead]

I hope Bernie is still in it by the time NY votes because the county map should be interesting.

[MK]

Trump could  top 50 % here