French Presidential Election: Your runoff predictions

[ApatheticAustrian]

still think she gets over 40 points and her fans are going to celebrate it like the second coming of jeanne.

[Umengus]

60-40 for Macron

[Bumaye]

Macron: 64,2% 
Le Pen: 35,8% 
 
Turnout: 76,4% 
 
I assume that her debate performance has reversed her small gains after the first round.

[parochial boy]

Macron 61%
Le Pen 38%

Anyone feel like taking a guess at how many departments Le Pen wins?

I think 7 in metropolitan France and 2 in the DOM/TOMs

[Double Carpet]

Macron 61%
Le Pen 38%

Anyone feel like taking a guess at how many departments Le Pen wins?

I think 7 in metropolitan France and 2 in the DOM/TOMs

I think Aisne must be one of her very best chances to win?

I guess it would be possible to model her likely wins based on Rd 1 + forecast vote transfers if you were really keen!

At least the vote counting should be faster tomorrow!

[DavidB.]

I'm not sure if she wins any departments...

[Mr. Smith]

still think she gets over 40 points and her fans are going to celebrate it like the second coming of jeanne.

Especially with the hacks that happened.

[Devout Centrist]

still think she gets over 40 points and her fans are going to celebrate it like the second coming of jeanne.

Especially with the hacks that happened.

The French don't give a sh*t

[Maxwell]

people just keep yelling leaks but NOTHING has come from them, the only news is that there was a hack and there's a bunch of fake news about Macron having offshore accounts that have been disproven over and over ala fake Kenyan Obama birth certificates. Even Wikileaks people are saying this is a big fat nothing burger and won't help the sinking, failing Le Pen campaign who will fail to hold to even the most minimal expectations that the Far Right has for her.

[Kingpoleon]

Macron: 65.4%
Le Pen: 34.6%
Turnout: 78.3%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Going to be pessimistic, because the media hype over FBM's coming triumph will probably demobilize some voters.

FBM: 59%
Panzergirl 41%

Total turnout: 77%
Valid turnout: 72%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Macron 59%
LePen 41%

[nicholas.slaydon]

Macron: 61%
Le Pen: 39%

[Mike Thick]

Macron: 61%
Le Pen: 39%

[Xing]

FBM<3 61.1%
Le Pen 38.9%

[Tender Branson]

Guys, you have 1 hour left to post your predictions.

Polls open in 1 hour and I will lock the thread until actual final results are in.

[JGibson]

Macron 58.9%
Le Pen 41.1%

[Tender Branson]

This is now unlocked again so you can comment on your predictions.

I'm very happy with both of my predictions today, France and Schleswig-Holstein.

I virtually nailed both of them, except the turnouts.

[Maxwell]

wow good job Kingpoleon and DavidB. lol Horus.

[TheSaint250]

I was ALMOST there...+/- 5%

[Kamala]

Flawless Marine will at least double her disgusting father's result.

Marine = Jean-Marie * 2 + 1 = 17.8 * 2 + 1 = 36.6%

36.6 would be downright pathetic, considering expectations.

I guess Le Pen was exceedingly pathetic, then!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Going to be pessimistic, because the media hype over FBM's coming triumph will probably demobilize some voters.

FBM: 59%
Panzergirl 41%

Total turnout: 77%
Valid turnout: 72%

Well, I was too pessimistic about FBM's score, but not nearly pessimistic enough about turnout. 25% abstention, 8.7% blank/spoiled, and only 66.4% actually cast a valid vote. That's beyond pathetic.

[Pericles]

My election prediction
2017 French presidential election
Emmanuel Macron(EM)-63.5%
Marine LePen(FN)-36.5%

Turnout-78.0%

Pretty close but slightly underestimated Macron(!) and overestimated turnout.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

I'll be bold

Macron: 67
Let Pen: 33

Not bad