How will President Pence do in 2020?
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Author Topic: How will President Pence do in 2020?  (Read 1146 times)
Technocracy Timmy
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« on: May 09, 2017, 10:59:57 PM »
Be honest with yourselves; that's gonna be the situation.
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NHI
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2017, 11:05:13 PM »
Pence initially trails the Democratic nominee by a wide margin a la Gerald Ford. He manages to narrow the gap, but loses to the Democratic candidate 51% - 47%
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2017, 11:06:13 PM »
Quote from: NHI on May 09, 2017, 11:05:13 PM
Pence initially trails the Democratic nominee by a wide margin a la Gerald Ford. He manages to narrow the gap, but loses to the Democratic candidate 51% - 47%
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2017, 11:27:26 PM »
President Pence wins reelection 52%-46% against Elizabeth Warren. GOP keeps House, Senate too close to call.
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emcee0
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2017, 11:31:30 PM »
Worst case scenario
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2017, 11:35:02 PM »
If it really were to come to this (I'm not convinced it will yet), he would lose to any remotely competent Democrat.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2017, 11:52:47 PM »
you know my thoughts mate Tongue
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2017, 09:01:35 AM »

LOL, how does a christian-right dude like Pence not win UT? I also don't see him to lose MO, MT and TX.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2017, 10:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 10, 2017, 09:01:35 AM

LOL, how does a christian-right dude like Pence not win UT? I also don't see him to lose MO, MT and TX.
Remember that Utah is mostly Mormon, which mainstream Christians do not view as a legitimate Christian group.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2017, 12:36:53 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 10, 2017, 09:01:35 AM

LOL, how does a christian-right dude like Pence not win UT? I also don't see him to lose MO, MT and TX.

Yeah I think MS and LA would flip before UT with Pence as the nominee.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2017, 12:53:03 AM »
I would like to remind everyone that just because the GOP lost the popular vote in 2016 for President does not mean they will never win the popular vote again. Despite Democratic vote sinks the GOP won the overall house popular vote in 2016!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2017, 01:00:51 AM »
Quote from: Jimmie on May 11, 2017, 12:53:03 AM
I would like to remind everyone that just because the GOP lost the popular vote in 2016 for President does not mean they will never win the popular vote again. Despite Democratic vote sinks the GOP won the overall house popular vote in 2016!

Yes, but Pence isn't the one to do it. Those districts had candidates who were able to fit well with their districts, including people that outran Trump in SoCal, South FL, suburban parts of TX, Atlanta suburbs, SE PA, Chicagoland, etc etc.

You need to be able to pull off the following number ranges.
TX 58%-60%
CA 38%-42%
ILL - 44%-45%
NY - 40%-42%
GA - 52%-53%
AZ - 52%-53%


Pence would not hold up well enough in SoCal, ILL collar counties and NY Suburbs. Pence also doesn't do as well as Trump in upstate NY or many of the rural Northern areas that reacted positively to the protectionist angle and more secular campaign message.


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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2017, 01:17:22 AM »
Oh yes I totally get you. It was not really the topic of this thread it is just so many people assume that the GOP can not win a national popular vote contest. I strongly disagree with that.

But your numbers are spot on.
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Blue3
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2017, 01:29:39 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-trump-to-nbc-s-lester-holt-i-was-1494522620-htmlstory.html

Pence either lied, or was lied to.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2017, 05:39:35 PM »
Poorly. Pence has none of Trump's populist or celebrity appeal. A decent mainstream Democratic ticket would defeat Pence/whomever.
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2017, 06:41:15 PM »
Quote from: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 11, 2017, 01:00:51 AM
Quote from: Jimmie on May 11, 2017, 12:53:03 AM
I would like to remind everyone that just because the GOP lost the popular vote in 2016 for President does not mean they will never win the popular vote again. Despite Democratic vote sinks the GOP won the overall house popular vote in 2016!

Yes, but Pence isn't the one to do it. Those districts had candidates who were able to fit well with their districts, including people that outran Trump in SoCal, South FL, suburban parts of TX, Atlanta suburbs, SE PA, Chicagoland, etc etc.

You need to be able to pull off the following number ranges.
TX 58%-60%
CA 38%-42%
ILL - 44%-45%
NY - 40%-42%
GA - 52%-53%
AZ - 52%-53%


Pence would not hold up well enough in SoCal, ILL collar counties and NY Suburbs. Pence also doesn't do as well as Trump in upstate NY or many of the rural Northern areas that reacted positively to the protectionist angle and more secular campaign message.



I can't comment on the other states, but 45% is definitely possible in Illinois without doing that well in the collar counties.
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