Why Did Hillary perform so well in California?
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  Why Did Hillary perform so well in California?
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Author Topic: Why Did Hillary perform so well in California?  (Read 3313 times)
Tintrlvr
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« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2017, 11:50:32 AM »

Let's not forget, there wasn't a Republican senatorial candidate on the ballot.
I'm not saying Trump would otherwise have won California, but the margin would have narrowed.

Upward coattails aren't a thing.
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This is Eharding, guys
ossoff2028
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« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2017, 06:47:25 PM »

Let's not forget, there wasn't a Republican senatorial candidate on the ballot.
I'm not saying Trump would otherwise have won California, but the margin would have narrowed.

Upward coattails aren't a thing.
Ron Johnson would disagree.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2017, 07:13:18 PM »


What do you mean? Johnson did better than Trump - are you saying Johnson voters helped Trump? That seems kind of whacky, and wouldn't even be provable unless you had some detailed exit polls probing that theory.

The idea behind coattails is that people who are deeply familiar with the presidential candidates would vote the same way as the top of the ticket (POTUS) all or most of the way down because they either want to support the "team" of the person they picked at the top and/or because they do not know much, if anything about the downballot candidates. This is compounded if the presidential candidate brings out a bunch of unreliable/new voters who only care about the presidential race.

Can't really say the same when you're going from the bottom -> up.
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ossoff2028
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« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2017, 08:06:22 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2017, 08:08:06 PM by ossoff2028 »

are you saying Johnson voters helped Trump?
Why not? It is well known there was a high concentration of Johnson signs in the Milwaukee suburbs. Very few Trump signs. Johnson endorsed Trump, unlike Ayotte or Heck, and he was a stronger candidate than either of them. Reverse coattails are hardly implausible in this situation.

I suspect reverse coattails were much more common about half a century or so ago, when regional candidates could often strongly affect the perception of national ones (e.g., Strom Thurmond endorsed Eisenhower, leading to Eisenhower winning a great deal more segregationist areas in South Carolina than in any other state in 1952).

Some states (e.g., Indiana, Missouri) show pretty clear effects of normal top-down Trump to GOP coattails on their Senate races. Not Wisconsin.
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JoshPA
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« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2017, 06:29:02 PM »

that sh**tty ass primary system they got so they turn there state into a one party system is one of the reason it cause low voter turn out.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #30 on: July 26, 2017, 08:29:46 PM »

Unfettered immigration
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mgop
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« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2017, 07:45:06 AM »

because trump did not campaign there
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maga2020
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« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2017, 04:02:58 PM »

Yeah, California is basically Mexico right now, the least american state in America.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2017, 11:58:32 PM »

This thread makes a great argument in favor of nuking this site
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