New York Primaries Predictions & Results

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

On September 12th, Primaries will be held for many New York Elections:

DEM Bronx President
DEM Nassau County Executive
CON Rockland County Executive
DEM Brooklyn District Attorney
DEM NYC Mayor
DEM & GRN Albany Mayor
DEM Buffalo Mayor
DEM Rochester Mayor
DEM Syracuse Mayor
DEM NYC Public Advocate

Plus Civil Court and City Council races

Polls close at 9 PM ET on the 12th. Results will be posted here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NY_Page_0912.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Discuss/Predict in this thread.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bronx Borough President

Rueben Diaz 65%

New York City-Mayor

Bill De Blasio 55%
Sal Albanese 35%
Other 10%

Brooklyn District Attorney

Eric Gonzalez 26%
Vincent Gentile 24%
Ana Dwimoh 20%
Marc Fliedner 14%
Patrica Gatling 8%
Arne Swern 8%

New York City Public Advocate

Letita James 70%
David Eisenbach 30%

Nassau County Executive

Laura Curran 51%
George Maragos 49%

I know little about Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester or Albany (or Rockland County for that matter), so I will not make picks for those races.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Sal Albanese a notable challenger, or is it just an "Anyone but DeBlasio" vote?

[Tintrlvr]

Is Sal Albanese a notable challenger, or is it just an "Anyone but DeBlasio" vote?

He's run twice previously and would be thought of as a perennial candidate if anyone serious were in the race. I doubt he gets anywhere close to 35% (maybe 20%).

[KingSweden]

BDB will crush Albanese

Other than that, don't know enough

[Suburbia]

De Blasio will beat Albanese by 20-30 points.

My full prediction:

De Blasio 65%
Albanese 35%

Albanese should run in NY-13 against Dan Donovan, despite the fact that Albanese is a Brooklynite, and Staten Islanders like their representatives to be Staten Islanders, he should go for it.

Or he can run for a state Senate seat or a state Assembly seat. But Albanese will not be mayor. Never.

[Anna Komnene]

Voted!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Voted!

Care to disclose who you voted for?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Pages:

County Executive: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NY_County_Executive_0912.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Bronx President:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NY_Boro_Pres-Bronx_0912.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NYC Mayor, NYC Public Advocate, Brooklyn District Attorney: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-primary-elections

Other Mayoral Primaries:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NY_Mayor_0912.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Polls close at the top of the hour.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just some early tea leaves:

New York City Mayor
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Bill de Blasio*
914   68.6%   
Sal Albanese
249   18.7   
Michael Tolkin
93   7.0   
Robert Gangi
38   2.9   
Richard Bashner
38   2.9   
1% reporting (70 of 5,901 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well DeBlasio can go to sleep now, this race is over:

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEBLASIO WINS NY MAYORAL PRIMARY

New York City Mayor
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Bill de Blasio*
5,512   70.3%   
Sal Albanese
1,502   19.2   
Michael Tolkin
424   5.4   
Robert Gangi
218   2.8   
Richard Bashner
182   2.3   
5% reporting (294 of 5,901 precincts)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How is Albanese doing so well in Staten Island?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I expect DeBlasio to be in the Presidential mix in 2020.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Congrats to DeBlasio!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Boro Pres-Bronx - Bronx - Dem Primary
893 of 999 Precincts Reporting - 89%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Diaz, Ruben (i)   Dem   45,221   86%
Price, Camella   Dem   6,164   12%
Selkridge, Avery   Dem   1,160   2%

Mayor - Albany - Dem Primary
City
89 of 128 Precincts Reporting - 70%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Sheehan, Katherine (i)   Dem   4,511   54%
Commisso, Frank   Dem   2,552   31%
McLaughlin, Carolyn   Dem   1,266   15%

Mayor - Buffalo - Dem Primary
City
135 of 138 Precincts Reporting - 98%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Brown, Byron (i)   Dem   12,131   51%
Schroeder, Mark   Dem   8,407   36%
Grant, Betty Jean   Dem   3,025   13%

Mayor - Rochester - Dem Primary
City
107 of 114 Precincts Reporting - 94%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Warren, Lovely (i)   Dem   11,628   63%
Sheppard, James   Dem   3,921   21%
Barnhart, Rachael   Dem   2,863   16%

Mayor - Syracuse - Dem Primary
City
47 of 55 Precincts Reporting - 85%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Perez Williams, Juanita   Dem   3,325   54%
Nicoletti, Joe   Dem   2,202   36%
Masterpole, Marty   Dem   630   10%

District Attorney - Brooklyn - Dem Primary
1636 of 1843 Precincts Reporting - 89%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Gonzalez, Eric (i)   Dem   65,239   53%
Swern, Anne   Dem   14,055   11%
Fliedner, Marc   Dem   12,627   10%
Gentile, Vincent   Dem   11,538   9%
Gatling, Patricia   Dem   11,139   9%
Dwimoh, Ama   Dem   8,958   7%

Public Advocate - New York City - Dem Primary
5269 of 5901 Precincts Reporting - 89%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
James, Letitia (i)   Dem   244,748   77%
Eisenbach, David   Dem   74,870   23%


-----
Still too close to call:


Mayor - Albany - Grn Primary
City
89 of 128 Precincts Reporting - 70%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Jimenez, Byran   Grn   13   52%
Plaat, Daniel   Grn   12   48%

County Executive - Nassau - Dem Primary
0 of 1197 Precincts Reporting - 0%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Curran, Laura   Dem   0   0
Maragos, George   Dem   0   0

County Executive - Rockland - Con Primary
50 of 277 Precincts Reporting - 18%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Day, Ed   Con   78   67%
Sullivan, Thomas   Con   38   33%

[The Govanah Jake]

Damn. Barely new any of the challengers though still wanted one to win and  DeBlasio walked all over them like it was nothing at 70% and more. All well, Congrats Mayor.

[Tintrlvr]

Not much of interest in the end. De Blasio wins handily, as expected. Most surprising result is probably how close City Council District 1 ended up being, but Chin narrowly pulled off renomination (reelection). Guessing that one was very polarized on racial lines (Chinese voters in Chinatown for Chin, Latino voters on the LES for Marte). Monserrate is sent packing again in CCD 21, hopefully permanently this time. My own CCD 35 was surprisingly closer than I expected, but I had the impression the incumbent Cumbo was phoning it in; I only ever saw mailers from her opponent. Cumbo still wins with about 60% (not 100% reporting yet). The Brooklyn DA race was more of a walk for appointed incumbent Eric Gonzalez than expected; he got over 50% of the vote, so my agonizing over whether Swern or Fliedner was a better tactical vote in the ostensible six-way race didn't matter. I ended up voting for Swern, and she did come in second, but with just 11% of the vote. Worth pointing out that, in the CCD 43 primaries (to replace Vincent Gentile, who humiliated himself with fourth place and 9% of the vote in the Brooklyn DA race), the Democratic candidates got way more votes than the Republicans, so probably the Republicans' "top" pick-up opportunity on the City Council will nonetheless strongly favor the Democrats in the general, where Brannan (D) will face Quaglione (R) (as well as Bruno (Ind & Con), Medina (Women's Equality) and possibly Capano (Reform), though Capano lost in the R primary and is likely to drop out). James waltzes over my preferred candidate, Eisenbach, in the Public Advocate primary.

[Littlefinger]

Curran wins Nassau County Dem Race (Thank God)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mayor - Albany - Grn Primary
City
128 of 128 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Plaat, Daniel   Grn   17   53%
Jimenez, Byran   Grn   15   47%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

County Executive - Rockland - Con Primary
277 of 277 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Day, Ed   Con   574   52%
Sullivan, Thomas   Con   520   48%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

County Executive - Nassau - Dem Primary
849 of 1197 Precincts Reporting - 71%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Curran, Laura   Dem   16,146   78%
Maragos, George   Dem   4,655   22%

All races have now been called.