Do you think that the Democrats will win the Senate in 2018?

[here2view]

If I had to place odds today I would favor Republicans 60/40, so tilt R. I think Democrats will make gains in Nevada and very likely Arizona now after Doug Jones' win. I think McCaskill is the Democrat Senator most likely to lose her seat.

My prediction right now is Democrats gain Arizona and Nevada but lose Missouri, causing the Senate to be split 50-50 but Pence having the tiebreaker. This of course gives huge veto power to Collins and Murkowski. If this outcome happens Obamacare will not be repealed in 2018. I expect that to really harm Republicans next November because they have been campaigning on repeal for the past 8 years now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I do cause unfortunately I don't think McCain has longer to go and his seat could be up in 2018 and a general backlash aganist Trump and possibly Kelli Ward doing something stupid as well will lead to both seats flipping dem.

[Gustaf]

If I had to place odds today I would favor Republicans 60/40, so tilt R. I think Democrats will make gains in Nevada and very likely Arizona now after Doug Jones' win. I think McCaskill is the Democrat Senator most likely to lose her seat.

My prediction right now is Democrats gain Arizona and Nevada but lose Missouri, causing the Senate to be split 50-50 but Pence having the tiebreaker. This of course gives huge veto power to Collins and Murkowski. If this outcome happens Obamacare will not be repealed in 2018. I expect that to really harm Republicans next November because they have been campaigning on repeal for the past 8 years now.

You can't really say that the outcome in the 2018 election will harm Republicans in the 2018 election though, right?

[Skill and Chance]

Those numbers have only really been produced in one race; I think it’s wise to look at a few more elections to see if those numbers continually are produced before we declare them some new baseline. Also Abbott is relatively popular and will likely help out Cruz some what. His actions may not be popular nationally but I suspect they are much less so in Texas (he won the Texas primary in a landslide), also their will likely be enough voters that may not approve of Cruz but still prefer him to a more liberal democrat.

[cut because it was getting too long]

I'm sure there will be voters who may not particularly like Cruz but still prefer him over a Democrat. The question will be whether enough of them can be persuaded to skip the race or stay at home. If O'Rourke does manage to do the impossible and win, it will likely have more to do with turnout differentials than Texas suddenly becoming a true swing state.

I'd call it Lean R.  He's favored, but Cruz could easily get the Warner 2014 treatment in a Dem wave.

[here2view]

If I had to place odds today I would favor Republicans 60/40, so tilt R. I think Democrats will make gains in Nevada and very likely Arizona now after Doug Jones' win. I think McCaskill is the Democrat Senator most likely to lose her seat.

My prediction right now is Democrats gain Arizona and Nevada but lose Missouri, causing the Senate to be split 50-50 but Pence having the tiebreaker. This of course gives huge veto power to Collins and Murkowski. If this outcome happens Obamacare will not be repealed in 2018. I expect that to really harm Republicans next November because they have been campaigning on repeal for the past 8 years now.

You can't really say that the outcome in the 2018 election will harm Republicans in the 2018 election though, right?

I meant more so in the House lol. Should have clarified that.

[ShadowRocket]

No, but I do think that they'll be able to mitigate their losses to no more than three seats, which they'll be able to counteract a bit with a victory in NV and a strong chance at one in AZ.

I'm still sticking with this more or less. I still have a hard time seeing the Democrats picking up more than NV and AZ, and not to mention losing one or both of MO or IN. I'm thinking that its a coin flip between D+1 or no net change for the final result.

[King Lear]

I currently rate the senate Likely Republican and believe the current range of outcomes is anywhere from R+7 to D+2.

[Gustaf]

I'd say Democrats have something like a 35% chance of winning the senate now. I think they are clear favourites to pick up Nevada and Arizona and even have reasonable shots at competing in Texas and Tennessee.

But it seems unlikely that they would be able to hold all the seats they are defending. My guess would still be that they lose at least one seat and don't pick up more than 2.

If we get a special election for McCain's seat I think Democrats would be narrow favourites though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, and history is on the Democratic side.  Only once has 1 house of Congress flipped without the other and that was in 2010, and with a presidential approval rating combined with the rating of Congress, 29 for Tump and 11 for Congress, then it looks promising for the Dems in 2018.  And its unlikely that a party has won 3 elections in a row.  2006, 2008 L 2010, 2014 and 2016 for the GOP

[MarkD]

No; the Democrats have more seats at risk (FL, IN, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, WV) than do the Republicans (AZ, NV, TN).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, the Dems have more seats at risk, and so did the GOP in 2016, and they kept the Senate.

The GOP congress has an 11% approval and Trump is at 29%, it all depends on the wave.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ehh right now I'm saying it will be a 50-50 senate. Dems pick up Arizona and Nevada while the GOP defeat McCaskill in Missouri. So the control of the senate rests on the shoulder of Clare McCaskill.

[Mr. Smith]

Possible, but to cover Bob Casey or McCaskill, they'll need either Bredesen to not go Bayh Bayh,  McCain's seat to go up so both Arizona seats are on, or a very lucky unforseeable pick-up.

[King Lear]

Possible, but to cover Bob Casey or McCaskill, they'll need either Bredesen to not go Bayh Bayh,  McCain's seat to go up so both Arizona seats are on, or a very lucky unforseeable pick-up.

I don't believe Bob Casey is in danger, evan in my Senate ratings everyone thought was "concern trolling", I still rated him Lean Democratic, this doesn't mean he won't face a close race (he will) it just means I believe he'll pull it out in the end. The same cannot be said about Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, both of which I believe have a high chance of losing, let alone the 5 blue dogs who are basically toast right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The idea Casey is at any risk in a D+12 environment is ludicrous.

[Gustaf]

Of the 10 Democrats in Trump states I think Baldwin is very safe and Stabenow and Casey are Likely D.

I think the remaining 7 are where Republicans have realistic chances. Out of the 7 I think Manchin, Heitkamp and Tester are a bit underrated and should be able to prevail. I think Nelson might be overrated, I expect that race to be pretty competitive. Brown also look like he has a race on his hands. Donnelly I've gotten more bullish on but still hard to think he's much better than 50-50. McCaskill remains the most vulnerable Democrat in my book. The issue really is that all these 7 races are competitive enough that it would take a strong wave and some luck for Democrats to not lose any of them. You'd kind of expect at least one Republican to run a strong campaign, at least one Democrat to run a bad one or make a gaffe, etc.

That's why I still think the math comes out as favouring Republicans here.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Possible, but to cover Bob Casey or McCaskill, they'll need either Bredesen to not go Bayh Bayh,  McCain's seat to go up so both Arizona seats are on, or a very lucky unforseeable pick-up.

I don't believe Bob Casey is in danger, evan in my Senate ratings everyone thought was "concern trolling", I still rated him Lean Democratic, this doesn't mean he won't face a close race (he will) it just means I believe he'll pull it out in the end. The same cannot be said about Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, both of which I believe have a high chance of losing, let alone the 5 blue dogs who are basically toast right now.

If Casey faces a close race there ain’t going to be a flood and maybe not even a wave.  A close race for Casey is not how floods and waves run their course.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible, but to cover Bob Casey or McCaskill, they'll need either Bredesen to not go Bayh Bayh,  McCain's seat to go up so both Arizona seats are on, or a very lucky unforseeable pick-up.

I don't believe Bob Casey is in danger, evan in my Senate ratings everyone thought was "concern trolling", I still rated him Lean Democratic, this doesn't mean he won't face a close race (he will) it just means I believe he'll pull it out in the end. The same cannot be said about Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, both of which I believe have a high chance of losing, let alone the 5 blue dogs who are basically toast right now.

If Casey faces a close race there ain’t going to be a flood and maybe not even a wave.  A close race for Casey is not how floods and waves run their course.

Meh, Casey's margin may not indicate anything. The man hates campaigning with a passion and that will cause him to do less well than the climate suggests.