Canadian election 2019: where will the Conservatives do better?

[King of Kensington]

Will the 2015 pattern where the CPC vote share was 5 points higher in Ontario than BC hold up, or will the Doug Ford effect put the vote share in BC back ahead as it was between 2004 and 2011.

[beesley]

Voted BC, but regardless of how the numbers play out, the CPC will do 'better' in BC from the more subjective viewpoint as they have more seats they are highly likely to gain.

[King of Kensington]

Good point.  The rise of the Greens in BC could certainly help the Conservatives come up the middle in many ridings.

[beesley]

Good point.  The rise of the Greens in BC could certainly help the Conservatives come up the middle in many ridings.

Courtenay-Alberni and Kootenay-Columbia (which contains Nelson and Creston) are two where I could see that happening.

[adma]

Good point.  The rise of the Greens in BC could certainly help the Conservatives come up the middle in many ridings.

Well, not just that, but a lot of the 2015 Liberal pickups in BC have a tone of the "accidental" about them, even more so than those in Ontario.  (Perhaps because unlike in Ontario, the Libs were dormant through much of BC in the 90s and 00s)

[mileslunn]

I choose BC but it depends if you mean percentage of seats or votes.  For votes, Ontario is more conservative than BC (I've lived in both provinces) but Ford is extremely unpopular and really hurting Tories whereas provincially in BC not the case.  While its true in the past Tories did better in BC than Ontario, there is a much stronger age gap in BC than in Ontario.  Tories win by bigger margins amongst seniors on West Coast, but do worse amongst millennials than in Ontario. 

On seats, I think BC as left will be more split as both NDP and Greens have much stronger bases in BC so Tories will have trouble winning any riding in Ontario with less than 40%, but in BC, I could see them winning a whole wack of ridings with only 1/3 support.