Le Projet France, How Arnaud Montebourg became Président de la République

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Episode One: Before the primaries

[this episode isn't a what-if but an actual summary]

December the 9th, 2016: Marie-Noëlle Lienemann retires from the "Citizens primaries". The Parisian Senator, facing low voting intention, doesn't want to divide the left wing vote. She doesn't endorse any candidate, and calls for a alternative to the government's agenda.

The left wing has indeed fought against the government for three years. The so-called "frondeurs", whose name comes from a XVIIth century aristocratic rebellion, wanted the government to adopt a different platform, that would fight austerity, and defend workers' rights. Six moths ago, they lacked two MPs to put forward censure motion. Yet, they're going divided for the primaries.
Before Lienemann withdrew, there were four left-wing candidates running for president:

Marie-Noëlle Lienemann. Former MP, former European MP, former mayor, former Secretary of Housing under two different governments, one of the historic leader of the left-wing. In the 2012 congress, she decided to present a different motion than the government one, that was endorsed by the right wing, and most of the left wing. Her campaigned stressed on working classe's defense measures, and wanted to bring concrete solution to them. She was endorsed by the most traditional left wing members of the party, but had no real support among voters. Benoît Hamon bullied her to quit the race, which explains why her staff, especially Emmanuel Maurel (European MP) and Jérôme Guedj (MP for Parisian suburbs) decided to endorse Arnaud Montebourg. The relation between the different wings of the left wing has always been difficult.


Gérard Filoche. A former trotskyst, union leader, is running on the same plateform than Lienemann. His very aggressive personality is seen as a serious obstacle, and he might not have enough official patronage to be allowed to run. When CEO of Total died in an aircrash in 2014, he twitted that he wouldn't mourn him.


Benoît Hamon. MP for Parisian suburb, former Secratary of consumption (2012-2014), former Secretary of Education (2014), former leader of the young socialist (90's). His campaign stresses on social issues more than economic issues. Fighting discrimination, legalizing marijuana, defending refuges... He also had a very environmentalist plateform. His economic program is though a mandatory part of his campaign: he advocates basic income for all. He's endorsed by allmost two thirds of the frondeur, but few other politicians endorsed him.


Arnaud Montebourg. Former MP for rural Burgundy, former Président du conseil général of Saône-et-Loire, former Secretary of Industry (2012-2014), former Secretary of economy (2014). His campaign stresses on economic issues. He wants to defend Made In France, reindustrialization, and wants government involved in it. He proposes to nationalize one of the five big French bank. He's also more euroskeptic than Hamon and Lienemann, arguing that the European commission wants to impose austerity in France. On social issues, he advocates republican values, like laicity (religious neutrality) fight against terrorism, but wants to make this election focused on economic issues. He's endorsed by the other frondeurs, like his partner Aurélie Filipetti (former Secretary of Culture and mp for Metz, eastern France) but also former Hollande supporters in the 2011 primary.


Two years ago, Hamon, Filipetti and Montebourg resigned from the government, after Valls and Hollande refused to change the economic policy. Montebourg worked in the private sector, while the others became MP again.

Four other candidates are running for president, given Hollande renounced to fight for reelection one week ago. Four days ago, Prime Minister Manuel Valls, former Secretary of Police (2012-2014), Mp for Parisian suburb, resigned to run. He represents the right wing of the party, and will certainly defends what Hollande did.


The central wing of the party is desperate, because Valls is the rightest man of the party, and they don't want to be trapped between him and the frondeurs. Rumors claim that Vincent Peillon, European MP, former Secretary of Education (2012-2014) could run.


The last parties that remain allies with the PS are allowed to participate and to have a candidate in the primaries. The historical center left Radical of the left party will run with Secretary of housing Sylvia Pinel, Environmentalists !, a pro government scission split the green party, will run with former MP leader François de Rugy (from Nantes). The Democratic Front, a pro government split from the centrist party MODEM will run with former European MP Jean-Luc Bennahmias.

A recent opinion poll projected
Valls 45%
Montebourg 28%
Hamon 11%
Filoche 6%
Lienemann 5%
De Rugy 1%
Bennahmias 1%
Pinel 0%

Run-off
Montebourg 51%
Valls 49%

Other candidate are:
Former Prime minister (2002-2007), MP for rural west François Fillon, for the right wing party Les Républicains, who surprisingly won the primaries on a conservative ticket


Former Secretary of Economy (2014-2016) Emmanuel Macron, as independant


European MP Marine Le Pen, for the National Front (nationalist)


European MP Yannick Jadot, for the green party


European MP Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for La France Insoumise (radical left)


MP for Parisian suburbs and mayor of Yerres Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, on a right-wing euroskeptic plateform


Rumors claim that centrist Mayor of Pau François Bayrou, candidate in 2002, 2007 and 2012, could run, after beloved by centrists former prime minister Alain Juppé lost right primaries to François Fillon.


Last poll gave:
Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 15%
Mélenchon 13%
Valls 12% or Montebourg 6%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 2,5%
Jadot 2,5%

[RedPrometheus]

I like Montebourg - looking foward to an update

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Episode two: Winning the left

December the 19th

Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, first secratary of the PS, just announced that Gérard Filoche doesn't have enough official endorsement to be qualified in the primary. Too few members of parliaments backed him, and he won't be allowed to run. As Lienemann did, he refused to endorse any candidate, letting his supporters "follow Montebourg or Hamon. Most important thing is to get rid of the disgracious presidency that is a shame for true socialists". He severly attacked Valls and Cambadélis in his resignation speech. Most of his supporters endorsed Montebourg, except his daughter, Léa Filoche, City concellor in Paris, who backed Hamon.


Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, MP for Paris, First Secrerary of the PS, remains officially neutral, but is secretly helping Peillon.

Manuel Valls is having a hard time. He has to take on the impopularity of Hollande's presidency, and in the same time is not helped by François Hollande. Valls harrassed Hollande to give up. On the last days when Hollande was wondering whether he would be candidate, Valls sent him three texts per day telling him he had no chances. Hollande asked his closest supporters not to endorse Valls, letting them chose between Peillon and remaining neutral. In the same time, Valls is having a hard campaign, he's regularly insulted or molested with flour.

Most of the government endorsed Valls though. Only Stéphane Le Foll, Hollande's closest politician, backed Peillon.

Stéphane Le Foll, Secretary of Agriculture, surprisingly endorsed Peillon

Hamon is also having a hard time. Two of his closest staff member are under accusation of sexual misconduct. Thierry Marchal-Beck, former leader of the Young Socialist, and Gilbert Cuzou, assistant to Pascal Cherki, MP for Paris and chief of campaign, are accused by young volonteer of rape and sexual harrassment. The media is focusing on the "rape culture" reigning in the Young Socialist Movement, but also in the student union UNEF. Those two associations are a key in Hamon's campaign, and he's suffering in the opinion, because he was running on a strong feminist campaign.

Montebourg seems well being compared to Valls and Hamon. He has three targets: rural and rust belt like (North-east of France) areas , disapointed left-wing voters and people concerned by transparency. This former lawyer became famous during the 90's when he suited Prime Minister Alain Juppé for living in a public housing, and made him evicted. Later, as MP, he was the leader of socialists who wanted to deny Jacques Chirac his presidential immunity in a corruption scandal, and had bitter relations with former socialist Secratary of Justice, Elizabeth Guigou, who defended Chirac. His campaign against globalisation is having an great echo in rural and unindustrialized areas. Yet, his manners and pomposity are making him look like a narcissistic politician who, as it's said in France, "is listening to himself".

Last poll projected:

Montebourg: 40%
Valls: 35%
Peillon: 10%
Hamon: 9%
De Rugy: 4%
Pinel: 1%
Bennahmias: 0%

Run-Off:
Montebourg: 55%
Valls: 45%

Meanwhile, François Fillon is having his momentum. After his dark-horse victory in the primaries, he was quickly endorsed by the whole right. He told his staff "as a father, I want to have my last resting time for several months with my famlily. I go skiing in the Alpes with my family and turn off my phone next week.
Marine Le Pen is dealing with two major problems. The lawsuit against the National Front in the european MP's assistant scandal becomes more and more critical, and the FN could be sentenced to an enourmous fine that would hurt severly their campaign.
Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon both refused to go to the left primary. Macron refuses to "follow a left that is collapsing", and Mélenchon declared that "he couldn't support to endorse Valls if he's elected."

Last national poll predicted
Last poll gave:
Fillon 31%
Le Pen 20%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 12%
Valls/Montebourg 11%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3,5%
Jadot 2,5%

Run-off:
Fillon - Le Pen: 70%-30%

Fillon - Macron: 59% - 41%