Most likely 2020 Senate upsets

[Xing]

I’m sure Charlie Baker would have a fantastic performance, and only lose by 15-20%, instead of 25-30%. Anyway, WI: Iowa.

[lfromnj]

Tbh op should have added alabama and Colorado .

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kansas, Minnesota, and Massachusetts

[History505]

Massachusetts with Baker.

If he even runs.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - none. But TX and KS are still most likely of these...

[Jon Tester]

Baker isn't running.

[MAINEiac4434]

Speaking as someone who lives in Massachusetts, I think that Charlie Baker would defeat Ed Markey if he chose to run. Nobody knows who Markey is, but everyone loves Baker.

Parties running popular former governors for the senate in states that are extremely partisan against them don't work as well as you'd think.

Ex: Phil Bredesen, Linda Lingle, Mitt Romney 1994.

Baker will still be the sitting governor in 2020, though I agree that he won't win if he runs for Senate, especially with Trump at the top of the ballot.

Weld was more popular than Baker is in 1996, and got absolutely smoked by John Kerry even as the incumbent governor, and only two years removed from winning the biggest landslide in Massachusetts history.

I hope the Republicans nominate Baker, so they pour money into a Safe D state and still lose by 12.

[Orser67]

Imo, TX and MN are by far the most likely upsets on this list, since Senate candidates in each state would only have to run a few points ahead of their party's presidential candidate. I also voted for AK since it's an unpredictable state that has a recent history of electing non-Republicans.

I'm skeptical of the notion that KS will elect a Democrat to the Senate in the foreseeable future. Even Kobach would probably win a KS Senate race in a neutral cycle.

[pbrower2a]

Alaska (undistinguished pol); Kansas (Kansas Republican Party showing signs of disarray, and Republican wins in Kansas have been weakening), and Texas (demographics).

Democrats can run against Trump except in Alabama.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Minnesota, Kansas, Kentucky, Texas and Alaska.

[😥]

Kansas, Kentucky, Texas

[MillennialModerate]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say if Marco Rubio or John Kasich were the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, it changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

[here2view]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say Marco Rubio or John Kasich was the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, if changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

I agree 100%, as someone who has lived in MA my entire life.

[Zaybay]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say Marco Rubio or John Kasich was the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, if changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

I agree disagree 100%, as someone who has lived in MA my entire life.

[Figueira]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say Marco Rubio or John Kasich was the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, if changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

No, there's no way Baker is winning a Senate race. Call him "effective" all you want, what matters is his positions on federal issues. All you have to do is look at his Diehl endorsement to know how revolting they are.

[Politician]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say Marco Rubio or John Kasich was the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, if changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

I agree disagree 100%, as someone who has lived in MA part of my life.

[brucejoel99]

KS, SC, MN

[Brittain33]

On the Massachusetts Baker thing, here’s what I think as someone who lives here

I’d say Marco Rubio or John Kasich was the President or if there was a Dem President ... any of those scenarios then I think Baker would beat Markey (or Warren for that matter). Hell I think he would beat Moulton even (Only person he would surely lose too is Kennedy). He is extremely popular and reasonable on most issues. He’s been effective on all but one issue. I think you guys are underestimating him - We are not like the idiots from Tennessee. We are a dark blue state but with a heavy independent streak.

HOWEVER, what blows that whole theory up is the fact Trump is President, if changes the ballgame cause this state is anti-Trump in a way it isn’t against other Republicans past or present. So no canidate is going to win that gives Trump another vote in Washington. No chance.

I agree 100%, as someone who has lived in MA my entire [adult] life.

[PAK Man]

Alaska and Texas.

Sullivan just barely won over Begich (the second consecutive cycle for that class where that seat was decided by a few thousand votes) yet everyone thinks it's a lost cause for Democrats. There's a decent D bench in the state.

Everyone always argues "Cornyn's not as controversial as Cruz," but he's also never had a tough general election battle. They just need a candidate to run a Beto-esque campaign (if not Beto himself). Remember, Texas was relatively close at the presidential level in 2016.

[UWS]

Alaska and Texas.

Sullivan just barely won over Begich (the second consecutive cycle for that class where that seat was decided by a few thousand votes) yet everyone thinks it's a lost cause for Democrats. There's a decent D bench in the state.

Everyone always argues "Cornyn's not as controversial as Cruz," but he's also never had a tough general election battle. They just need a candidate to run a Beto-esque campaign (if not Beto himself). Remember, Texas was relatively close at the presidential level in 2016.

But it was partly because Trump was controversial, just like Ted Cruz and not only Cornyn is less controversial than Cruz like they say but he is also less controversial than Trump.

Trump still won Texas by 9 points in 2016, which is quite large.

[lfromnj]

I can't believe 13 people actually voted for Kentucky -_-
I clicked on it but I meant Kansas.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Kansas, Minnesota, and Massachusetts

Tbh if you're really going to go for a long shot New England R pickup, Rhode Island trended R and has a pretty old incumbent (note this is not a prediction, but it's more likely than Massachusetts).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since the road to the Senate majority lines within the 272-279 freiwal: Vilsack over Ernst is one and Gallego over McSally is another.

[jamestroll]

Apparently it would be Gary Peters winning re-election because as of now everyone who is not a Democrat has Peters as dead on arrival.

[UWS]

Maybe a Republican senate pick up in Michigan.