MI-SEN 2018: Debbie Stabenow vs. John James. Who wins?

[Suburbia]

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), elected to the U.S. Senate since 2000, will win reelection, but by 18 points. Her Republican opponent, John James, a military veteran and businessman, is a black Republican. He is seen as a rising star in the MI GOP and nationally. However, he will be branded as a "Uncle Tom", "Coon", "Sunken Place", "Get out", by the professional agitators and leftists who feel that Black people must belong in line in the Democratic Party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_James_(Michigan_politician)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDHxxGwJzss

Who wins?

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Inc.) 59%
John James (R) 41%

Stabenow wins by 18 points, but watch for MI GOP to ask James to run for MI GOV in 2022 or 2026 or a House seat.

Stabenow, Whitmer and the female Democratic intensity and mobilization will be too much for James.

Solid D, but watch for interesting October debates.

[Calthrina950]

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), elected to the U.S. Senate since 2000, will win reelection, but by 18 points. Her Republican opponent, John James, a military veteran and businessman, is a black Republican. He is seen as a rising star in the MI GOP and nationally. However, he will be branded as a "Uncle Tom", "Coon", "Sunken Place", "Get out", by the professional agitators and leftists who feel that Black people must belong in line in the Democratic Party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_James_(Michigan_politician)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDHxxGwJzss

Who wins?

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Inc.) 59%
John James (R) 41%

Stabenow wins by 18 points, but watch for MI GOP to ask James to run for MI GOV in 2022 or 2026 or a House seat.

Stabenow, Whitmer and the female Democratic intensity and mobilization will be too much for James.

Solid D, but watch for interesting October debates.

I've heard some on here doubting whether or not Stabenow will win by as wide a margin as she did in 2012 and 2006. Is it possible that James does at least slightly better with black voters then her previous Republican challengers?

[Chief Justice Keef]

However, he will be branded as a "Uncle Tom", "Coon", "Sunken Place", "Get out", by the professional agitators and leftists who feel that Black people must belong in line in the Democratic Party.

[SaneDemocrat]

black Republicans are not called Coons because they are Republicans. They are called Coons because they deny racism.Republicans would do much better with black voters if they nominated Michael Steele.

[IceSpear]

I think Stabenow wins by slightly less than she did in 2012, but still by double digits.

[ON Progressive]

Stabenow by at least 10 points, and that's a best case for James. Atlas is overrating James just because he's a black Republican.

I hate to break it to you Atlas, but black Republicans don't do much better among black voters than white Republicans do.

Here's a link showing a bunch of papers that prove this: https://journalistsresource.org/studies/society/race-society/black-republicans-minority-voters-gop

[Calthrina950]

Stabenow by at least 10 points, and that's a best case for James. Atlas is overrating James just because he's a black Republican.

I hate to break it to you Atlas, but black Republicans don't do much better among black voters than white Republicans do.

Here's a link showing a bunch of papers that prove this: https://journalistsresource.org/studies/society/race-society/black-republicans-minority-voters-gop

I'm very well aware that black Republicans lose just as badly as white Republicans, but I would imagine that James would do slightly better than Stabenow's prior Republican challengers.

[MT Treasurer]

Stabenow by at least 10 points, and that's a best case for James. Atlas is overrating James just because he's a black Republican.

No, I don’t think his strengths as a candidate have anything to do with him being black (although it admittedly draws more attention to his candidacy). Stabenow will almost certainly win in this environment, but I don’t think she’s the political goddess many here are making her out to be (I’d say Baldwin, Tester, Brown, Heitkamp and some others are all stronger incumbents, honestly).

But to be fair, the GOP is running so many bad to awful Senate candidates this year, that alone makes James (and Braun or Scott) look good by comparison.

[Xing]

Nice try at trolling, but your shtick is predictable and old.

James *might* only lose by high single digits if he runs a very strong campaign, but he's not beating Stabenow in an environment like this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

55-43 Stabenow wrecks terrible pettifogger James. Also he might do a little better with the black vote, but we will more than make up for it with the big swings towards us from the 2016 election in this state in the white vote. So don't worry, that crazy maniacal flop is not going to be a senator come 2019.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Stabby stabby!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm amazed that 4 people think James will win (or at least voted that way).

[AlabamaGujjuGirl]

I don't think it would even be a contest: Stabenow wins 55-45.

[pbrower2a]

2018 is going to be a bad year for Michigan Republicans because Donald Trump and Governor Rick Snyder have horrid approval ratings. Debbie Stabenow 'votes black', which is enough for black Democrats.

[Greedo punched first]

2018 is going to be a bad year for Michigan Republicans because Donald Trump and Governor Rick Snyder have horrid approval ratings. Debbie Stabenow 'votes black', which is enough for black Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kerry Bentivolio could have made it very close.

[Calthrina950]

2018 is going to be a bad year for Michigan Republicans because Donald Trump and Governor Rick Snyder have horrid approval ratings. Debbie Stabenow 'votes black', which is enough for black Democrats.

This is very true. I fully expect Stabenow to win by double digits, but I think that she will do slightly worse than she did in 2012. James will make some minor improvement with black voters, but Stabenow will probably get strong numbers among suburban voters and will do decently well in rural counties.

[SingingAnalyst]

James will probably do slightly better than most Republicans among Black voters, but not by much. He probably runs 2-3 points ahead of Schuette in 90%+ Black precincts.

Statewide: Stabenow 57-41
Detroit: Stabenow 94-5
Wayne: Stabenow 74-24
Washtenaw: Stabenow 74-24
Ingham: Stabenow 71-27
Oakland: Stabenow 58-40 (James lives in Oakland)
Macomb: Stabenow 56-42

James will win Hillsdale, Livingston, Missaukee, Ottawa, and Sanilac Counties.  From what I have read, Stabenow is popular in Northern Michigan for her experience and her attention to agricultural issues.

[wesmoorenerd]

Kerry Bentivolio could have made it very close.

The man couldn't even gain traction in a primary for his old seat, what makes you think that he would've been able to do well in a much bigger race?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kerry Bentivolio could have made it very close.

The man couldn't even gain traction in a primary for his old seat, what makes you think that he would've been able to do well in a much bigger race?

He has that moderate image to appeal to educated white suburban voters in Landing, Kalamazoo, Oakland, Macomb, and outer parts of Wayne and Washtenawz

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I'll treat this thread as a general for the 2018 Michigan Senate Race.

I made a swing map based on the percentage swing (not margin swing) of Pete Hoekstra's 2012 performance to John James' 2018 performance. James did a bit better than many expected. He lost by high single digits rather than by double digits. Hoekstra's percentage in 2012 was 38%, and James' was 45.8%.



Dark red denotes a double digit swing, even if the county went for Stabenow in the end. For instance, if a county was 30% Hoekstra in 2012 and 45% James in 2018, it gets marked as dark red.

Medium red denotes a high single digit swing from over 5 to under 10.

Orange denotes a low single digit swing. Note that this seems to happen in high population counties like Ingham, Oakland, Washtenaw, and in low population counties where I presume there exists large Native American populations.

Light blue denotes a swing where Hoekstra did a little better than James. This happened in two counties in the Grand Rapids area. In Kent County, Hoekstra got 50% while James got 48.7%. In Ottawa County, Hoekstra got 64% while James got 62.7%. Both happen to be swings of 1.3% away from the Republican candidate. Note that these two are high population counties. The former is roughly evenly split between the Democrat and the Republican, while the latter is Republican dominated. I don't know much about the Grand Rapids area, but I presume it's more populated with affluent whites. This seems indicative of a trend in Democratic support for that demographic. The swing towards Stabenow was small probably because James is a better candidate than Hoekstra, who ran a disastrous campaign in 2012. It's possible the overall Democratic trend in that area isn't super large.

The rural areas filled with working class whites all swung to James by double digits. Some by low double digits, others by high double digits. Huron County, a little bit north of Detroit, had its percentages for the Senate race at 60% Democratic and 37% Republican in 2012. In 2018, that became 60.8% Republican and 37.8% Democratic, which was an almost complete reversal.


edit: for comparison, here is the same kind of map comparing Bush's 2004 performance to Trump's 2016 performance. In 2004, turnout was higher (and perhaps the population was higher overall), so the vote total was a bit higher. Bush got 47.81% statewide while Trump got 47.50% statewide.



There is a palpable trend towards the Democrats since 2004 in the Grand Rapids area, and in the Detroit area. There is a trend towards the Republicans in all the rural areas that don't have large Native American populations.