how do you rank geographic advantage?

[David Hume]

WI is probably the best example of R's geographic advantage, with D voters packed in MM and it's almost nature to draw a 6-2 map.

MA is probably the best example of D's geographic advantage, where it's almost impossible to draw even one R seat.

Geographic advantage also depends on number of seats. In general, the smaller number of seats, the easier to gerrymander. But if WI only have 2 seats, the huge geographic advantage of R reduces to zero.

How would you rank?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Calculated this a while back for some states:



Obv the specific number of districts will have an impact (I.e Wisconsin 8 or 9 districts is kind of the worst possible number for Dems), and this has not been updated for the official 2020 census results. I hope to finish this project soon.

[Torie]

The Midwest is probably best for the Pubs, followed by the South. The worst is probably the Northeast overall, followed by the West. Hispanics are potentially a big wild card going forward in particular,  as it may influence the matrix chart, given their rapidly increasing voting power heft, with considerable uncertainty as to which direction they will go going forward, and where.

[Skill and Chance]

The factors that help Democrats most are a high Hispanic population, when the entire state is highly urbanized, or when there are a whole bunch of college grad heavy rural areas.  They do best in the Southwest and New England.

The factors that help Republicans most are a high black population and when there is a single large city, ideally in the middle of the state.  They do best in states with significant majority/plurality black cities and in places where the rural white vote isn't as unanimous, generally the Midwest and Upper South

Most pro-Dem: AK, HI, CA, TX, NV, CO, MA, RI, CT, AZ (R's held the legislature only due to ticket splitting),
Most pro-GOP: WI, MI, MO, OH, PA, TN, KY, NC, IL, NY (the NYC Dem pack is still significant)

This can change significantly over time.  VA and MD used to be very pro-GOP, but are basically unbiased using Biden numbers since enough of the outer suburbs flipped.  MN used to be very pro-Dem but is now basically even.

[Nyvin]

Population density of rural areas is another important item.   It's probably one of the main reasons western states are trending Dem,  the main suburbs trend D and there's hardly any rural population to trend R, so the state slips away from Republicans.

Also why in the midwest it's so punishing for Democrats to lose support in rural areas.  States like Ohio and Missouri have huge rural populations that make up a big portion of the state and once those swung R the state was gone.

[David Hume]

Calculated this a while back for some states:



Obv the specific number of districts will have an impact (I.e Wisconsin 8 or 9 districts is kind of the worst possible number for Dems), and this has not been updated for the official 2020 census results. I hope to finish this project soon.

What's your methodology?

[Skill and Chance]

Calculated this a while back for some states:



Obv the specific number of districts will have an impact (I.e Wisconsin 8 or 9 districts is kind of the worst possible number for Dems), and this has not been updated for the official 2020 census results. I hope to finish this project soon.

Some of these are quite surprising.  Dems control the Maine legislature and even won one house in 2016.  JBE lost a majority of the Louisiana legislative districts there and only carried the VRA CD in his narrow 2019 win.  Republicans have a supermajority in the state senate despite never getting over 60% presidentially.  In Alabama, Doug Jones also won with only the VRA CD.  

Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma having the same pattern as Alaska makes sense.

[David Hume]

The factors that help Democrats most are a high Hispanic population, when the entire state is highly urbanized, or when there are a whole bunch of college grad heavy rural areas.  They do best in the Southwest and New England.

The factors that help Republicans most are a high black population and when there is a single large city, ideally in the middle of the state.  They do best in states with significant majority/plurality black cities and in places where the rural white vote isn't as unanimous, generally the Midwest and Upper South

Most pro-Dem: AK, HI, CA, TX, NV, CO, MA, RI, CT, AZ (R's held the legislature only due to ticket splitting),
Most pro-GOP: WI, MI, MO, OH, PA, TN, KY, NC, IL, NY (the NYC Dem pack is still significant)

This can change significantly over time.  VA and MD used to be very pro-GOP, but are basically unbiased using Biden numbers since enough of the outer suburbs flipped.  MN used to be very pro-Dem but is now basically even.

Agree that midwest is the most pro-R, since the polarization in rural white is moderate, as compared to the south.

I would say MN is very pro-R. If R control the process, they can draw a 6-2 maps easily.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

[Roll Roons]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

I think it’s because Dems are very packed into immediate DC burbs and Baltimore, and happen to be higher turnout. There’s quite a lot of red territory in Maryland despite the state overall being so blue. Also these calculations are imperfect so take it all with a grain of salt

[Skill and Chance]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

I think it’s because Dems are very packed into immediate DC burbs and Baltimore, and happen to be higher turnout. There’s quite a lot of red territory in Maryland despite the state overall being so blue. Also these calculations are imperfect so take it all with a grain of salt

A commission-style, minimal county/city split congressional map in the 2011 cycle would have been tied 4D/4R in 2012.  I think a 5th district would have given out by the end of the decade (either a western seat that has some of Montgomery or an Anne Arundel-based seat further east), but it would have 2-3 R seats today and might have stayed 4/4 until 2018.  That's pretty wild in a 4X 60%+ Dem state presidentially.   

Also, VA was just as bad as MD pre-Biden.  Dems won the statewide vote for House of Delegates by more than 9% in 2017 but still lost the chamber by 1 seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated scores with more states

Maryland has the worst geography for Democrats? That's absolutely mind-blowing.

I think it’s because Dems are very packed into immediate DC burbs and Baltimore, and happen to be higher turnout. There’s quite a lot of red territory in Maryland despite the state overall being so blue. Also these calculations are imperfect so take it all with a grain of salt

A commission-style, minimal county/city split congressional map in the 2011 cycle would have been tied 4D/4R in 2012.  I think a 5th district would have given out by the end of the decade (either a western seat that has some of Montgomery or an Anne Arundel-based seat further east), but it would have 2-3 R seats today and might have stayed 4/4 until 2018.  That's pretty wild in a 4X 60%+ Dem state presidentially.   

Also, VA was just as bad as MD pre-Biden.  Dems won the statewide vote for House of Delegates by more than 9% in 2017 but still lost the chamber by 1 seat.

3 Trump seats on 2020 numbers is pretty easy and one could even argue "natural". It's also not that hard to draw a state leg map that denies Dems a supermajority which is pretty hard usually in a +30% state.