Will the Democrats ever target TX-13 in the future?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 06, 2024, 11:36:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Will the Democrats ever target TX-13 in the future?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Will the Democrats ever target TX-13 in the future?  (Read 525 times)
The Arizonan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 19, 2019, 01:53:28 PM »

This is a serious question. Do you think that the DCCC will ever target TX-13 in the future even if it happens decades from now?
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,390
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2019, 02:07:17 PM »

No.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2019, 02:49:07 PM »

They will win it in 2020 once Blumpf's approval inevitably hits -15% and they nominate a Strong Candidate™ of course.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2019, 02:52:11 PM »

A socialist on Twitter told me that rural voters are actually #EconomicallyLeftWingButSociallyRightWing, which means that if the Dems nominate Sanders this will be a Safe D seat
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2019, 05:31:19 PM »

Not in this political alignment, but of course at some point in the future (probably very far into the future, unless Texas gets new Congressional Districts and TX-13 is moved somewhere else), it'll be winnable for Democrats.
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2019, 07:49:12 PM »

Eventually, yes, plausibly by the 60s or so in this alignment. It's currently 80% Republican, so not even close.
That's from an electorate that is 80% White, 5% Black, 15% Hispanic.
Democrats seem to be managing 10% White support.

However, there is a large number of non-citizen Hispanic voters. By say 2060, the electorate will be 60% white, 5% Black, and 35% Hispanic. With the white vote moving left (from 90% R to 75% R), something that is fairly plausible given a more protectionist GOP and the dominance of farming in this district, and Hispanic turnout close to white turnout, it'd be around 55% R. In a wave, that's a pretty reasonable target.

Will that happen? Maybe. There's a plausible sequence of events where it becomes a D target. There's also a lot of ways it could stay heavily R, although I highly doubt it will remain 80% R indefinitely. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.225 seconds with 12 queries.