Senate classes, long-term possibilities

[Gustaf]

Class I (2006):



18 Democrats+Ind
15 Republicans

GOP -3

Class II (2008):



12 Democrats
21 Republicans
GOP +9

Class III (2010):



15 Democrats
19 Republicans
GOP+4

Overall:
45 Democrats +Indpendent
55 Republicans

Looking forward towards the coming 3 congressional cycles, what are Democratic chances of taking back the senate in time for the 2012 elections? Obviously, there is a lot we don't know, but generally, in terms of retirements, trending, personalities, etc, what can we say?

[Gustaf]

In fact, both 2008 and 2010 appears more promising to me than 2006, just looking at the number of seats Democrats already hold, where they are, and so on.

[Galactic Overlord]

In 2008, I imagine Democrats will have a shot at Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.  Maine will also be in play if Collins steps down.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, the vast majority of GOP seats are in the deep south or the plains states, so they'll be out of reach. 

Republicans will have a good chance at picking up Louisiana.  Unless Baucus or Harkin decide to retire, I doubt they can win their seats, though.

[Dave from Michigan]

if Levin retires in 2008 the republicans have a pretty good chance at Michigan

[nini2287]

Class II (2008):



12 Democrats
21 Republicans
GOP +9

I just feel like doing this one now:

HIGHLY COMPETITIVE
Alaska (if Stevens retires and Knowles runs)
Colorado
Louisiana
Maine (if Collins fulfills term limit promise)
Minnesota
New Mexico (if Domenici retires)
New Hampshire
New Jersey

SOMEWHAT/POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE
Arkansas
Delaware (if Biden retires)
Georgia
Iowa
Massachusetts (if Kerry retires)
Michigan (if Levin retires)
North Carolina
Oregon
South Dakota
Virginia (if Warner retires and Warner (pick-up) or Kaine (potentially cometitve) runs)

NOT COMPETITIVE
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Montana (unless Baucus retires)
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Wyoming

Right now I see the following seats switching:
Alaska
Colorado
Maine
Michigan (with Candice Miller)
Minnesota

Dem +3

Just a guess.

[Rococo4]

I actually think the Class of 2002 / 2008 is the Dem's weakest class.  That election in 2002 put alot of Republicans in seats that are Red states.  This 2000/2006 class is the Dem's strongest -it was in 00 and will be again this cycle, with the 2004/2010 somewhere in the middle.

[Smash255]

Nini


I don't see Massachusetts being competitive if Kerry steps down in 08, afterall its Massachusetts and its a Presidential Election year.  Not to mention the possible Dem field is MUCH stronger than the possible GOP field

[TheresNoMoney]

In 2008, I imagine Democrats will have a shot at Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.  Maine will also be in play if Collins steps down. 

Plus New Mexico (Domenici retiring). Plus Virginia (Warner retiring). Plus Alaska (Ted Stevens retiring). Plus Tennessee (Bredesen will run). Plus Oregon (Kitzhaber or DeFazio could knock off Gordon Smith). Plus North Carolina (Liddy Dole could retire or be beaten).

Right now, I see 10 potentially competitive GOP seats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously the most realistic scenario for the Democrats is taking back the Senate in 2008.

[nini2287]

Nini


I don't see Massachusetts being competitive if Kerry steps down in 08, afterall its Massachusetts and its a Presidential Election year.  Not to mention the possible Dem field is MUCH stronger than the possible GOP field

You're most likely right but as an open seat, I had to list it under "potentially competitive" as there are a couple strong GOP candidates (Weld could move back or Healey if she wins the governorship [although doubtful])

[Gustaf]

I agree with others, I think the GOP in MA is beginning to look more and mroe dead, especially in a presidential year. Besides, why would Kerry step down, he isn't even that old.

[nini2287]

I agree with others, I think the GOP in MA is beginning to look more and mroe dead, especially in a presidential year. Besides, why would Kerry step down, he isn't even that old.

To run for President again is the only reason.