2022-GOV: Rate New Hampshire

[VAR]

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[WD]

Tossup/Tilt D, the environment will probably help the GOP here, but it depends on who Democrats nominate. It could go either way honestly.

[GALeftist]

NHGOP's bench is really quite weak so i'll say Tilt D for now.

[tosk]

I'm very excited for this race.

I said toss-up tilt r. I feel good about keeping the corner office, and I think we can motivate our base to get out for whoever our nominee is. However I have to couple that with knowing that dems have some very strong candidates to run.

Some names to keep an eye on:

Chris Pappas
Dan Feltes
Joyce Craig

Kelly Ayotte
Chuck Morse
Ted Gatsas

These are just some of the names I've heard tossed around. There could always be the unknown ambitious politicians.

[JMT]

Safe R with Sununu, tossup/tilt R with Ayotte, lean D without Sununu or Ayotte.

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'd rate it at a tentative Likely R if Sununu stays, Toss-up if he runs for Senate. Remember that a lot can change, especially if acting Speaker Sherm Packard decides not to run. The job is his if he wants it, but if someone like Al Baldasaro becomes Speaker, there's going to be deep disarray in the NHGOP - not to mention downballot backlash on the level of O'Brien.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's Safe R if Sununu runs (unless some unforseen scandal happens) Let's not kid ourselves, he got 65% this year, he'll easily win re-election again in 2022.

If he runs for Senate, I think it'll go to a toss-up. GOP got the legislature this year unexpectedly so I would put at least 50% odds of them holding it in a Lean R year.

[Xing]

Pure Toss-Up if Sununu runs for Senate, Safe R if he runs for re-election.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt R (expecting Sununu to run for Senate; if he runs for reelection, it’s Likely R). Best-case scenario for the NH GOP:

2021-2022: Republicans recover some lost ground in the suburban parts of the state (esp. the Merrimack and Seacoast regions) + 2016 trends accelerate in North Country/other rural and small-town areas in the state
2022: very R-friendly environment, Sununu runs for Senate (wins), Ayotte runs for Governor (wins)
2024: Biden reelected / Harris elected, Ayotte reelected
2026: another R-friendly environment, Ayotte runs for Senate (wins)

I wonder whether NH or ME will be the first New England state to have two GOP Senators.

[Kingpoleon]

Daniel Innis has not been mentioned yet for the Republicans. That would be a big get if Ayotte and Gatsas don’t run.

[Squidward500]

Likely R without Sununu. Safe R with him

[SnowLabrador]

I'll be bold and say Likely R if Sununu runs for Senate. 2022 is likely to be a GOP wave year, and what's more, Sununu is likely to beat Hassan by a substantial margin and could provide coattails.

Of course, if Sununu runs for a fourth term as Governor, it's Safe R, no question.

[Figueira]

Accidentally voted Tilt R thinking that it was about NH-Sen.

I would actually say Tilt D, but probably close to a pure tossup.

[Chips]

Still somewhere between Tilt and Lean R.

[S019]

Pure Tossup (expecting Sununu to retire), and the D bench is obviously much better, but someone like Kelly Ayotte or Jeb Bradley could probably win this for the GOP, Likely/Safe R, if Sununu runs again