Public Policy Institute of CA: Schwarzenegger (R) has double-digit lead over Angelides (D)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California Governor by Public Policy Institute of CA on 2006-07-26

Summary: D: 30%, R: 43%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It seems like Angelidas is getting weaker by the week.  Time to change methods in this campaign that isn't going very well. State Treasurers have a difficult time winning governorships, just like the floundering campaign in my home state of IL of Judy Baar Topinka.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Something seems seriously wrong with this poll. I doubt much has changed since the Field poll, which tends to be the most accucurate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am waiting for the LA Times poll that will tell the real story on the race. I think it will match  up with Zogby and Rasmussen, this race is still a toss up. But leans towards Schwartz now.

[ATFFL]

I am waiting for the LA Times poll that will tell the real story on the race. I think it will match  up with Zogby and Rasmussen, this race is still a toss up. But leans towards Schwartz now.

The last time the LA Times polled they were D+1.

The LA Times is a horrible pollster.  Put your stock in them and you will usually get burned.  They have a horrible methodology.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I am waiting for the LA Times poll that will tell the real story on the race. I think it will match  up with Zogby and Rasmussen, this race is still a toss up. But leans towards Schwartz now.

Zogby is basically worthless, but if Rasmussen and LA Times roughly agree with it, then that might mean that Angelides might be doing a bit better than the down 8 points that the more reliable Field poll shows. This PPIRG poll is trying to claim that Schwarzengger's supporters care more about the enivornment than Angelides' supporters. Toss it in the trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trederick I am simply saying we should go by all the polls not just some the LA Times is equivilent to the Mason-Dixon polls in OH and FL and should not be underestimated. And by the way they predicted Bush would carry OH and FL in the summer of 2004.

[Tender Branson]

What makes me wondering is the large sample of over 2000 polled. Shouldn´t a sample of 2000 be quite accurate ? If this is true, Angelides is in really bad shape right now. But simply i can´t believe Schwarzenegger is winning by such a margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why this is a closely watched race, that can go either way.

[ATFFL]

Trederick I am simply saying we should go by all the polls not just some the LA Times is equivilent to the Mason-Dixon polls in OH and FL and should not be underestimated. And by the way they predicted Bush would carry OH and FL in the summer of 2004.

Their last CA poll called it Kerry by 18, not the 10 he won by. 

Their polling in 2004 was all over the map, rarely matching up with all the other polls at the time.  Their 2005 polling for the ballot initiatives were also pretty bad.  Now, they may have fixed things, but I would bet against it.  Every time they are called on their polls, they defend it.

Finally POLLS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS!   Especially in the summer.  They are snapshots of the race as it exists.  Only final polls in the last few days can be considered predictions.  THose are what we base a pollsters reputation on.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What makes me wondering is the large sample of over 2000 polled. Shouldn´t a sample of 2000 be quite accurate ? If this is true, Angelides is in really bad shape right now. But simply i can´t believe Schwarzenegger is winning by such a margin.

Bad methodology perhaps. Field, which tends to be fairly reliable has Angelides at 37%, not the 30% of this poll, and other polls have him even higher.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as predicating goes, LA times tend to be accurate. They called OH and FL for Bush and now they are calling OH for Brown.  And they also, predicted that Schwarzenegger would win the recall that is good predicting to me.

[ATFFL]

What makes me wondering is the large sample of over 2000 polled. Shouldn´t a sample of 2000 be quite accurate ? If this is true, Angelides is in really bad shape right now. But simply i can´t believe Schwarzenegger is winning by such a margin.

Bad methodology perhaps. Field, which tends to be fairly reliable has Angelides at 37%, not the 30% of this poll, and other polls have him even higher.

At a guess, Field pushes leaners more than PPI.  That Angelides has a layer of soft support that is technically undecided but likely to vote for him, if they vote at all, would fit with what one would expect following a contested primary.

[MasterJedi]

Arnold isn't up by that much, he's ahead but nowhere near double digits.