20 (!) count'em 20 new state polls - Updated in polling section

[Smash255]

does their partisanship skew their numbers to the right by a point or 2?

The honest answer is I don't know.

Historically speaking these guys are deadly accurate - These guys are a good as Zogby claims to be - These guys poll for about a dozen Senators, and dozens of Congessman.  They are hired because they are good.

POS is a combat polling firm - and when you run a campaign, you want your polls to be accurate, not biased.  You need to know the truth, whatever that truth is. - No point putting time and money into a state you can't win.

If anything, when you polling internally for a campaign you actually try to be just a tad pessimistic, if anything.

A lot of these states, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, etc actually look a tad optimistic to the Kerry side IMHO.

The suspicion of bias in polls by partisan firms comes not so much from the belief that individual polls are biased, but that only a small percentage of these polls ever become public.  Candidates generally only release polls that show them in a favorable light.  And even if the poll "leaked out", it is possible that the leak was intentional.  

I don't know how Vorlon came upon these polls, but in this case, they don't seem to be part of a Republican spin operation.

Maybe, but out of the 12 or so polls that their has been in Florida this is the 2nd best for the Bush team so that could be a reason it was released. Not saying that its the reason, but you never know

[The Vorlon]

Maybe, but out of the 12 or so polls that their has been in Florida this is the 2nd best for the Bush team so that could be a reason it was released. Not saying that its the reason, but you never know

On the other hand, it is the most favorable to Kerry polls I have seen for Washington and New Mexico and Nevada...

Who knows.. ?

Remember too... 20 polls, we can expect 1 to be wrong outside the MOE.

Off the top of my head I'd vote Tennessee on this batch...

The suspicion of bias in polls by partisan firms comes not so much from the belief that individual polls are biased, but that only a small percentage of these polls ever become public.  Candidates generally only release polls that show them in a favorable light.  And even if the poll "leaked out", it is possible that the leak was intentional.  

I think the best policy on Partisan polls is just put a big "D" or a big "R" next to them, and let folks make up thier own minds.

For what it is worth:

Gore won the 20 states polled by 0.01% in 2000

In these polls Bush leads these 20 states by 0.78%

If you take out New Jersey, 2000 versus 2004 is almost identical over the 19 states.

Certainly not crazy by any means, but I guess you never really know.

Maybe the "vast right wing conspiricy" is just most subtle than they used to be...

[ATFFL]

On thing I notice whiel comparing these polls to other polls is that the differences between many of them can be explained away by Nader.  

A quick example, In Iowa Survey USA gives Kerry a 3% lead with Nader taking 5%, while this poll has nader up 7%, only 1 % off.  

I noticed it in a few other states as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't trust partisan firms. Even ones that would otherwise be good firms.
Too many times watching Yes Minister...

[mddem2004]

Kerry starts with a 4% edge man.  I'm pretty sure he takes it in a close electin

Kerry's "edge" is artificial, as it is based entirely on very high turn-out from the Gore team in 2000.  Gore's people had set up shop and were fully staffed in PA by May of 2000.  Bush's team was never even fully staffed.  There were huge pockets in the "ex-urbs" (as Vorlon said) and in the "T" were there was no Bush effort at all.

This year, Bush has had his HQ established in Harrisburg since February or March.  The HQ alone in perminatly staffed with hundreds of devoted workers.  There are several hundred subs stations throughout PA.  Each is fully staffed.  There is one Bush foot soldier for every 400 people in PA.  Regional offices are all over staffed.

Kerry has an office in Harrisburg that is staffed with about 10 people.  No regional offices.

Bush made the mistake of highly over estimating devoted GOP support in this state in 2000.  He won't make that mistake again.

I must respectfully disagree with the notion that Kerrys edge in my neighbor to the north is artificial.

In 1996 in the counties of Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware (where I think this election will largely be decided in PA) went for Clinton by margins of 3.7%, 7.6%, and 9.9% respectively. Perot (whose voters comprised primarily of moderate Republicans and Independents) took 8 to 10% of the vote in those counties.

Yet in 2000, without Perot draining those votes from Bush's numbers, those counties went for Gore by margins of 4.3%, 9.3%, and 11.7%.

You state that Bush's "ground game will carry him" this time around. I'm of the view that if Bush could not carry the state last time with Mr. Ridge & Co., its gonna be even harder with Rendells machine in power now.

The states voter registration (as of 2002) breaks 48% D, 41% R, and 10% I or other, and the Dems are maintaining an edge statewide in new monthly voter registrations.

As far as the central part of the state carrying Bush, I seriously doubt that they can squeez any more blood out of that turnip and improve upon an ave. of 67% vote going for Bush to offset the suburbs and citys of Philly and Pitt.

[The Vorlon]

I don't trust partisan firms. Even ones that would otherwise be good firms.
Too many times watching Yes Minister...

Most people think Yes Minister is a comedy.

If you have ever worked in government, you know it is actually a documentary.....

[Ben.]

 Polls are about what i would expect... if Iraq quiets down and the economy continues to do well I'd say that PA, NH, WI should move into the Bush column, otherwise NV and OH will probably slip into the Kerry Column...    

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't trust partisan firms. Even ones that would otherwise be good firms.
Too many times watching Yes Minister...

Most people think Yes Minister is a comedy.

If you have ever worked in government, you know it is actually a documentary.....

True

[12th Doctor]

Polls are about what i would expect... if Iraq quiets down and the economy continues to do well I'd say that PA, NH, WI should move into the Bush column, otherwise NV and OH will probably slip into the Kerry Column...    

If that happens then just about all these states are going to slip intothe Bush column.

If everything goes to Hell.  Most of these will go Kerry.

If things stay the same, then this is about what we'll be looking at on Nov. 2nd.

[JNB]

   The Kerry game plan it looks like at this point will to be to focus on OH, PA and WV, while trying to maintain an edge in WI and MN and possibly OR. My gut feeling is FL wont be as much of a target because of all the resources Gore spent there probably cost him NH and the victory in 2000.

   More and more it looks like MO is becoming more of a Southren Oriented state in its political behavior. The exurbs of St Louis and KC are growing rapidly, and are heavily Republican and Springfeild has grown quite a bit. The state legislature there now even has a GOP majority.

[classical liberal]

There are alot of undecided in these polls.  I think that that's why NJ looks competitive, like 9% of voters are undecided though I think that they probably tend a bit towards Kerry.  I saw a piece about NJ citing the past 15 statewide elections that found that the undecideds broke heavily in all but 2.  I think that they'll break for Kerry as they did for Gore, but if they broke for Bush he'd win.

[classical liberal]

St. Charles County won't go +15 for Bush again.  As it grows it moves to the left since the bible-thumpers get replaced by yuppies, the kind who drink chai tea and take yoga classes.  As such I'm thinking that exurban counties will be around 7 points less Republican this time around.  So St Charles County will be like Bush 54 Kerry 45.

[© tweed]

Does Vorlon have Bush up 2-4 or 4-6 in FL?

[ATFFL]

Does Vorlon have Bush up 2-4 or 4-6 in FL?

Looks 2-4 to me.

[JNB]

   St. Charles County is most certainly exurbia, and there is no indication that it will change its voting behavior anytime soon. The St. Louis metro area is generally not an area that has attracted the white collar liberal, and a large portion of the white Democratic vote come from the white working class. St. Louis does not equal Chicago.  Yes, there are small patches of more moderate suburbia in older suburbs like Clayton, but most of the increase of the Democratic vote in St. Louis county is due to a higher percentage of the population being black compared to what it was in years past. The 2nd congressional districts boundires have generally followed the path of "white flight" from St Louis to past St. Charles.

    If one looks at the St. Louis Metro area, they will notice that working class Jefferson County, South of St. Louis, a county that is 98% white went for Gore in 2000, and Jefferson County is about as far a place as one can imagine being a yuppie haven. It is a county that has a large number of unionsed workers.

  That said, with a large amount of growth in St. Charles County, KC suburbs like Independence MO and especially Springfeild, the Dems will have a togher time in MO than in years past.

[opebo]

   St. Charles County is most certainly exurbia, and there is no indication that it will change its voting behavior anytime soon. The St. Louis metro area is generally not an area that has attracted the white collar liberal, and a large portion of the white Democratic vote come from the white working class. St. Louis does not equal Chicago.  Yes, there are small patches of more moderate suburbia in older suburbs like Clayton, but most of the increase of the Democratic vote in St. Louis county is due to a higher percentage of the population being black compared to what it was in years past. The 2nd congressional districts boundires have generally followed the path of "white flight" from St Louis to past St. Charles.

    If one looks at the St. Louis Metro area, they will notice that working class Jefferson County, South of St. Louis, a county that is 98% white went for Gore in 2000, and Jefferson County is about as far a place as one can imagine being a yuppie haven. It is a county that has a large number of unionsed workers.

  That said, with a large amount of growth in St. Charles County, KC suburbs like Independence MO and especially Springfeild, the Dems will have a togher time in MO than in years past.

Great analysis of the St. Louis area.  St. Charles County is heavily GOP.  I am actually from Jefferson County, and can report that while it remains Democrat leaning, it is becoming less so as it grows.  The median home price out there has been going up with massive new developement, and the new people are much more likely to vote Republican than the old.  Btw, I hate that place.

[© tweed]

Does Vorlon have Bush up 2-4 or 4-6 in FL?

Looks 2-4 to me.

Thanks...it can get hard to tell