If you rate each district and then tally them up, who do you have winning the House?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

For a while I've been thinking of the House as Tilt D. However, when I tabulated my no-tossups predictions for each district, this is what it came out to:

218 Republicans
217 Democrats

So my new rating is Pure Tossup / Tilt R if no tossups allowed.

I hope this doesn't actually happen, but I have a really bad feeling that the evil North Carolina Republicans who threw out the first true fair map the state has seen in decades and stole 3 or maybe 4 seats will ultimately be the reason Republicans keep the House (if they keep it). Without the diabolical North Carolina redraw, my prediction would be 221 Democrats to 214 Republicans. Of course, there are a lot of uncertain seats here, but I think North Carolina alone reduced Democrats' chances of winning the House by at least 20%, probably higher.

Here's what I had flipping:

D-R
California-47 (Open; Porter) - Tilt R
Michigan-07 (Open; Slotkin) - Tilt R
North Carolina-01 (Davis) - Tilt R
North Carolina-06 (Open; Manning) - Safe R
North Carolina-13 (Open; Nickel) - Safe R
North Carolina-14 (Open; Jackson) - Safe R

R-D
Alabama-02 (Open; New Black Seat) - Likely D
Arizona-01 (Schweikert) - Tilt D
Arizona-06 (Ciscomani) - Tilt D
Louisiana-06 (Graves; New Black Seat) - Likely D
Nebraska-02 (Bacon) - Tilt D
New York-03 (Suozzi - flip only compared to 2022 results) - Lean D
New York-04 (D'Esposito) - Tilt D
New York-17 (Lawler) - Tilt D
New York-22 (Williams) - Lean D
Oregon-05 (Chavez-DeRemer) - Tilt D

There are a lot of other vulnerable incumbents, but when forced to pick a side in a tossup scenario, I'm usually inclined to pick the incumbent - especially since so many incumbent Democrats won close races in a tough year like 2022. The districts I have as being tossup races, but ultimately chose the incumbent party as the winner, are:

Republicans
California-13 (Duarte)
California-22 (Valadao)
California-27 (Garcia)
California-45 (Steel)
Colorado-03 (Open; Boebert)
Iowa-03 (Nunn)
New Jersey-07 (Kean)
Wisconsin-03 (Van Orden)

Democrats
Colorado-08 (Caraveo)
Illinois-17 (Sorensen)
Maine-02 (Golden)
Michigan-08 (Open; Kildee)
Nevada-03 (Susie Lee)
New Mexico-02 (Vasquez)
Ohio-13 (Sykes)
Pennsylvania-07 (Wild)
Pennsylvania-08 (Cartwright)
Texas-34 (Gonzalez)
Washington-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)

and in the Lean Category:

Republicans
California-41 (Calvert)
Michigan-10 (James)
Montana-01 (Zinke)
New York-19 (Molinaro)
Virginia-02 (Kiggans)

Democrats
Alaska-AL (Peltola)
California-49 (Levin)
Connecticut-05 (Hayes)
Indiana-01 (Mrvan)
Minnesota-02 (Craig)
Nevada-01 (Titus)
Nevada-04 (Horsford)
New York-18 (Ryan)
Ohio-01 (Landsman)
Ohio-09 (Kaptur)
Oregon-06 (Salinas)
Pennsylvania-17 (Deluzio)
Texas-28 (Cuellar)
Virginia-07 (Open; Spanberger)

[Tekken_Guy]

For a while I've been thinking of the House as Tilt D. However, when I tabulated my no-tossups predictions for each district, this is what it came out to:

218 Republicans
217 Democrats

So my new rating is Pure Tossup / Tilt R if no tossups allowed.

I hope this doesn't actually happen, but I have a really bad feeling that the evil North Carolina Republicans who threw out the first true fair map the state has seen in decades and stole 3 or maybe 4 seats will ultimately be the reason Republicans keep the House (if they keep it). Without the diabolical North Carolina redraw, my prediction would be 221 Democrats to 214 Republicans. Of course, there are a lot of uncertain seats here, but I think North Carolina alone reduced Democrats' chances of winning the House by at least 20%, probably higher.

Here's what I had flipping:

D-R
California-47 (Open; Porter) - Tilt R
Michigan-07 (Open; Slotkin) - Tilt R
North Carolina-01 (Davis) - Tilt R
North Carolina-06 (Open; Manning) - Safe R
North Carolina-13 (Open; Nickel) - Safe R
North Carolina-14 (Open; Jackson) - Safe R

R-D
Alabama-02 (Open; New Black Seat) - Likely D
Arizona-01 (Schweikert) - Tilt D
Arizona-06 (Ciscomani) - Tilt D
Louisiana-06 (Graves; New Black Seat) - Likely D
Nebraska-02 (Bacon) - Tilt D
New York-03 (Suozzi - flip only compared to 2022 results) - Lean D
New York-04 (D'Esposito) - Tilt D
New York-17 (Lawler) - Tilt D
New York-22 (Williams) - Lean D
Oregon-05 (Chavez-DeRemer) - Tilt D

There are a lot of other vulnerable incumbents, but when forced to pick a side in a tossup scenario, I'm usually inclined to pick the incumbent - especially since so many incumbent Democrats won close races in a tough year like 2022. The districts I have as being tossup races, but ultimately chose the incumbent party as the winner, are:

Republicans
California-13 (Duarte)
California-22 (Valadao)
California-27 (Garcia)
California-45 (Steel)
Colorado-03 (Open; Boebert)
Iowa-03 (Nunn)
New Jersey-07 (Kean)
Wisconsin-03 (Van Orden)

Democrats
Colorado-08 (Caraveo)
Illinois-17 (Sorensen)
Maine-02 (Golden)
Michigan-08 (Open; Kildee)
Nevada-03 (Susie Lee)
New Mexico-02 (Vasquez)
Ohio-13 (Sykes)
Pennsylvania-07 (Wild)
Pennsylvania-08 (Cartwright)
Texas-34 (Gonzalez)
Washington-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)

and in the Lean Category:

Republicans
California-41 (Calvert)
Michigan-10 (James)
Montana-01 (Zinke)
New York-19 (Molinaro)
Virginia-02 (Kiggans)

Democrats
Alaska-AL (Peltola)
California-49 (Levin)
Connecticut-05 (Hayes)
Indiana-01 (Mrvan)
Minnesota-02 (Craig)
Nevada-01 (Titus)
Nevada-04 (Horsford)
New York-18 (Ryan)
Ohio-01 (Landsman)
Ohio-09 (Kaptur)
Oregon-06 (Salinas)
Pennsylvania-17 (Deluzio)
Texas-28 (Cuellar)
Virginia-07 (Open; Spanberger)

I expect CA-47 to be a D hold. 2024 likely won’t be as bad as 2022 was for CA Dems. I also think Dems will flip at least one R-held CA seat.

I also don’t expect MI-07 to flip.

Molinaro should also be in the toss-ups. He should be easier to unseat than Kean or Nunn, honestly.

[Zenobiyl]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

[Tekken_Guy]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

I don’t see Susie Lee or Susan Wild losing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

224D-211R



Nothing really that bold on here, but I would say I have most of the rated as "tossup" by pundits going D - still threw Rs some races that I thought could go either way though (CA-13, CA-22, VA-02).

I generally think people are underestimating Dems in the House in a similar way to which Rs were underestimated in 2020. In 2020, you had a ton of Dem wave babies in these Trump +5 to Trump +15 seats that most people thought were in tossup races (SC-01, OK-05, NM-02, NY-22) but in the end nearly all ended up losing and the exceptions were districts where Biden saw large gains at the top of the ticket (i.e. VA-07 which was Trump-->Biden).

CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, CA47, NE-02, NM-02, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and OR-05 are all districts that voted for Biden by at least 5 but are rated as tossup or better for Republicans, despite most of these Rs winning in squeakers in 2022 or some cases seats Dem won in 2022 (CA-47, NM-02).

Like seriously what's the justification for left-shifting Biden+11 CA-47 being a tossup - is Dave Min really that bad? Is Scott Baugh some sort of electoral juggernaut?

[Zenobiyl]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

I don’t see Susie Lee or Susan Wild losing.

Nevada dems will lose at least one seat imo, since the state as a whole will shift to the right. Susie Lee was my pick as the likeliest casualty from this.

Susan Wild lucked out on a mediocre retread opponent as well as running in a year where the GOP got utterly curb-stomped. Turnout and republican vote share will be better in 2024 than 2022 especially in PA, and that alone will be enough to flip her seat.

[Utah Neolib]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

I don’t see Susie Lee or Susan Wild losing.

Nevada dems will lose at least one seat imo, since the state as a whole will shift to the right. Susie Lee was my pick as the likeliest casualty from this.

Susan Wild lucked out on a mediocre retread opponent as well as running in a year where the GOP got utterly curb-stomped. Turnout and republican vote share will be better in 2024 than 2022 especially in PA, and that alone will be enough to flip her seat.

I don’t even think the Republican house campaign organization placed any money in Nevada this year so far. If Trump doesn’t win Nevada there probably won’t be a succeeding downballot effect and Lee and the others will probably be fine.

[Zenobiyl]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

I don’t see Susie Lee or Susan Wild losing.

Nevada dems will lose at least one seat imo, since the state as a whole will shift to the right. Susie Lee was my pick as the likeliest casualty from this.

Susan Wild lucked out on a mediocre retread opponent as well as running in a year where the GOP got utterly curb-stomped. Turnout and republican vote share will be better in 2024 than 2022 especially in PA, and that alone will be enough to flip her seat.

I don’t even think the Republican house campaign organization placed any money in Nevada this year so far. If Trump doesn’t win Nevada there probably won’t be a succeeding downballot effect and Lee and the others will probably be fine.

I think Trump wins Nevada

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Current US House:
218 R
213 D

2024 US House Projection:
222 R
213 D

AL-2: Solid D [GAIN]
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Tilt D [FLIP]
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Lean R
CA-9: Lean D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Lean R
CA-41: Lean R
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Lean D
CO-3: Lean R
CO-5: Likely R
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Lean D
FL-7: Safe R
FL-9: Safe D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Safe R
FL-23: Lean D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Tilt D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Tilt D
LA-6: Solid D [GAIN]
MA-2: Tilt D
MD-6: Likely D
MI-3: Lean D
MI-4: Likely R
MI-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
MI-8: Tilt D
MI-3: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Lean R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Tilt D
NV-3: Tilt R [FLIP]
NV-4: Tilt D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt R
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-2: Solid R
NY-3: Lean D
NY-4: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-17: Lean D [FLIP]
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt D [FLIP]
NY-22: Tilt D [FLIP]
NC-1: Tilt R [FLIP]
NC-6: Solid R [GAIN]
NC-11: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R [FLIP]
NC-14: Solid R [FLIP]
OH-1: Likely D
OH-9: Likely D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Lean D
OR-5: Tilt D [FLIP]
OR-6: Lean D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-8: Tilt R [FLIP]
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Solid R
TN-5: Solid R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Solid R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Tilt D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

I don’t see Susie Lee or Susan Wild losing.

Nevada dems will lose at least one seat imo, since the state as a whole will shift to the right. Susie Lee was my pick as the likeliest casualty from this.

Susan Wild lucked out on a mediocre retread opponent as well as running in a year where the GOP got utterly curb-stomped. Turnout and republican vote share will be better in 2024 than 2022 especially in PA, and that alone will be enough to flip her seat.

I don’t even think the Republican house campaign organization placed any money in Nevada this year so far. If Trump doesn’t win Nevada there probably won’t be a succeeding downballot effect and Lee and the others will probably be fine.

I think Trump wins Nevada

Unless Trump is winning Nevada by a sizeable margin, I just don't see any Dems going down in the house races. I think the cutoff for Rs to win down there is like an R+6 generic ballot statewide?

[coloradocowboi]

219 D - 216 R as of now, but there are a wide range of outcomes possible I think between a narrow GOP minority and a more robust Dem majority.

AL-2: Likely D
AK-AL: Lean D
AZ-1: Lean D
AZ-6: Tilt R
CA-3: Likely R
CA-9: Likely D
CA-13: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely D
CA-22: Tilt R
CA-27: Tilt R
CA-40: Likely R
CA-41: Tilt D
CA-45: Lean R
CA-47: Tilt D
CA-49: Likely D
CO-3: Lean R (Lean D with Hanks though)
CO-4: Safe R (Lean R with Boebert though)
CO-5: Likely R (Lean R with Williams though)
CO-8: Lean D
CT-5: Likely D
FL-7: Likely R
FL-9: Likely D
FL-13: Likely R
FL-15: Likely R
FL-22: Likely D
FL-23: Likely D
FL-27: Likely R
GA-2: Likely D
IL-17: Lean D
IN-1: Lean D
IA-1: Likely R
IA-4: Likely R
IA-3: Lean R
KS-3: Likely D
LA-6: Likely D
MD-6: Likely D
ME 2 - Lean D
MI-3: Likely D
MI-7: Tilt R
MI-8: Lean D
MI-10: Tilt R
MN-2: Tilt D
MO-2: Likely R
MT-1: Likely R
NE-2: Tilt R
NV-1: Lean D
NV-3: Lean D
NV-4: Lean D
NH-1: Lean D
NH-2: Lean D
NJ-3: Likely D
NJ-5: Likely D
NJ-7: Tilt D
NM-1: Likely D
NM-2: Lean D
NY-1: Likely R
NY-3: Likely D
NY-4: Lean D
NY-17: Tilt D
NY-18: Lean D
NY-19: Tilt R
NY-22: Lean D
NC-1: Tilt D
NC-6: Solid R
NC-13: Solid R
NC-14: Solid R

OH-1: Lean D
OH-9: Lean D
OH-13: Tilt D
OR-4: Likely D
OR-5: Tilt D
OR-6: Likely D
PA-1: Lean R
PA-7: Tilt D
PA-8: Tilt D
PA-10: Lean R
PA-17: Lean D
SC-1: Likely R
TN-5: Likely R
TX-15: Likely R
TX-28: Tilt D
TX-34: Lean D
VA-1: Likely R
VA-2: Tilt R
VA-7: Lean D
VA-10: Likely D
WA-3: Tilt D
WA-8: Likely D
WI-1: Lean R
WI-3: Lean R

[Compuzled_One]

Damn, good job counting so many Districts. I'm surprised it could genuinely be this tight. Would this be a first?

Also, imagine if the Dennis the Menace scenario happens and the House is tied.