Why isn’t Oregon more Republican?

[Cyrusman]

Oregon is weird state where I feel like there are many things that work in the republicans favor but the stare is overwhelmingly democrat.

- most of the state outside of Portland votes Republican
- eastern Oregon is pretty much like Idaho
- it’s very white outside of Portland
- not a tax friendly state. They have no sales tax
- while Portland is a big city it’s not like LA, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, Bay Area. I mean Ohio has 3 metropolitan areas (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland) yet it still votes Republican

Why aren’t republicans more competitive in Oregon?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

- most of the state outside of Portland votes Republican

land doesn't vote, people do. Rural Oregon is quite sparse population-wise. Extreme difference between share of people won and land won is far from unique to Oregon. Rs easily win the land area of Nevada even in D landslides like 2008.

- eastern Oregon is pretty much like Idaho

true, true. But it's home to less than one-sixth of the state's population.

- it’s very white outside of Portland

fair, fair.  But in the PNW Dems do very well in the white vote. Portland itself is so white that it is hard to find an area that is majority-minority to begin with even on precinct level.

- not a tax friendly state. They have no sales tax

Not sure about this one. I guess it simply doesn't impact the partisanship of the state too much.

- while Portland is a big city it’s not like LA, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, Bay Area. I mean Ohio has 3 metropolitan areas (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland) yet it still votes Republican

Portland metro is by itself more comparable to Minneapolis-Saint Paul than any of these metros, due to the sheer population concentration. Not all metros are equal. For that matter, Oregon has some mini-metros. Eugene, Ashland, Salem, Bend, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Wildfire state, Wildfires are caused by oil drilling, all the thunderstorms migrate to SE and causing droughts in the Fall on the WC.

We are supposed to have a monsoon season where in August Hurricanes are on W Mexico but there hasn't been much of monsoon season. All the Hurricanes go to FL or Hawaii or Japan

AZ, CA, NV, CO, WA and OR are Wildfire states

[Meatball Ron]

Yeah, don't over-complicate. The very liberal metropolis and its surrounding areas simply dominate the more rural/conservative parts of the state in terms of population.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Oregon is weird state where I feel like there are many things that work in the republicans favor but the stare is overwhelmingly democrat.

- most of the state outside of Portland votes Republican
- eastern Oregon is pretty much like Idaho
- it’s very white outside of Portland
- not a tax friendly state. They have no sales tax
- while Portland is a big city it’s not like LA, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, Bay Area. I mean Ohio has 3 metropolitan areas (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland) yet it still votes Republican

Why aren’t republicans more competitive in Oregon?

I mean, a lot of your points could also apply to Minnesota.

- Greater Portland + Eugene-Springfield make up around 56% of Oregon compared to Minneapolis-St. Paul's 62% of Minnesota.
- Oregon & Minnesota are both around 85% white.
- Trump would've won both states were it not for Greater Portland & Minneapolis-St. Paul (15-16% margin in Minnesota vs 3-5% margin in Oregon, which should probably tell you something right there).


Also keep in mind Dems narrow margins in places outside the Portland Metro such as Jackson/Marion/Polk/Yamhill Counties as well as their newfound strength in exponentially-growing Deschutes County.

Add those counties in with Greater Portland & the college counties (Benton/Lane) and you've got around 3/4 of the state population.

If anything, I'm more surprised that Oregon isn't more Democratic.

[neostassenite31]

Portland metro is by itself more comparable to Minneapolis-Saint Paul than any of these metros, due to the sheer population concentration. Not all metros are equal. For that matter, Oregon has some mini-metros. Eugene, Ashland, Salem, Bend, etc.

The Portland MSA has about 2.5 million people compared to Minneapolis-St. Paul, which has 3.6 million. The simple difference is that Minnesota has much, much more exurban and rural baggage than Oregon

[RINO Tom]

Too enlightened/good

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Portland metro is by itself more comparable to Minneapolis-Saint Paul than any of these metros, due to the sheer population concentration. Not all metros are equal. For that matter, Oregon has some mini-metros. Eugene, Ashland, Salem, Bend, etc.

The Portland MSA has about 2.5 million people compared to Minneapolis-St. Paul, which has 3.6 million. The simple difference is that Minnesota has much, much more exurban and rural baggage than Oregon

In % of their state's population, the two metros are similar, which is what counts, no?

[RINO Tom]

Portland metro is by itself more comparable to Minneapolis-Saint Paul than any of these metros, due to the sheer population concentration. Not all metros are equal. For that matter, Oregon has some mini-metros. Eugene, Ashland, Salem, Bend, etc.

The Portland MSA has about 2.5 million people compared to Minneapolis-St. Paul, which has 3.6 million. The simple difference is that Minnesota has much, much more exurban and rural baggage than Oregon

I mean, "baggage" being in the eye of the beholder, of course ... I'm sure the exurban voters (why does this website act like "exurban" is similar to "rural" when most exurban places are rich, White, devoid of poverty and consisting entirely of people who live there 110% on purpose?) view Portland as the baggage.

[Chips]

Portland dominates.

[MarkD]

Portland dominates.

Portland metro area dominates, to be more precise.

Multnomah County is the largest in terms of population and votes, and it contains over 20% of the whole state. Washington County is second largest, and it contains over 15% of the whole state. Then Clackamas County is the third largest, and it contains over 10% of the state. Combining those three you get about 46% of the population and votes of the entire state of Oregon.

I think Washington County is especially crucial to understanding why the state as a whole is so Democratic. Washington County used to be a Republican bastion for the state, but over the last 30 years it has gotten more Democratic, so much so that last year it voted for Biden by over a 2-1 margin; it's been over a century since the last time that county voted by 2-1 for any presidential candidate. It's almost entirely suburbs, which ought to mean a Republican tendancy, but for some reason I can't explain, it is quite heavily Democratic. I wish I knew why there aren't more Republican voters in Washington County, but clearly those are heavily Democratic suburbs.

[Chips]

Portland dominates.

Portland metro area dominates, to be more precise.

Multnomah County is the largest in terms of population and votes, and it contains over 20% of the whole state. Washington County is second largest, and it contains over 15% of the whole state. Then Clackamas County is the third largest, and it contains over 10% of the state. Combining those three you get about 46% of the population and votes of the entire state of Oregon.

I think Washington County is especially crucial to understanding why the state as a whole is so Democratic. Washington County used to be a Republican bastion for the state, but over the last 30 years it has gotten more Democratic, so much so that last year it voted for Biden by over a 2-1 margin; it's been over a century since the last time that county voted by 2-1 for any presidential candidate. It's almost entirely suburbs, which ought to mean a Republican tendancy, but for some reason I can't explain, it is quite heavily Democratic. I wish I knew why there aren't more Republican voters in Washington County, but clearly those are heavily Democratic suburbs.

True.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Portland dominates.

Portland metro area dominates, to be more precise.

Multnomah County is the largest in terms of population and votes, and it contains over 20% of the whole state. Washington County is second largest, and it contains over 15% of the whole state. Then Clackamas County is the third largest, and it contains over 10% of the state. Combining those three you get about 46% of the population and votes of the entire state of Oregon.

I think Washington County is especially crucial to understanding why the state as a whole is so Democratic. Washington County used to be a Republican bastion for the state, but over the last 30 years it has gotten more Democratic, so much so that last year it voted for Biden by over a 2-1 margin; it's been over a century since the last time that county voted by 2-1 for any presidential candidate. It's almost entirely suburbs, which ought to mean a Republican tendancy, but for some reason I can't explain, it is quite heavily Democratic. I wish I knew why there aren't more Republican voters in Washington County, but clearly those are heavily Democratic suburbs.

It's worth mentioning that most of us OR-avatars are either from or have lived in Washington County. I can see OSR and OBD as people I personally know and have met IRL, but I don't think either is the right age for who I have in mind.

I always wondered why Hillsboro is more Republican than Beaverton, although I never paid attention to how they voted before 2016. I'd partly attribute Washington County's D swing to the presence of multinational corporations like Intel and Nike, which employ lots of foreign-born and/or college-educated folks.

[OBD]

Agree with MarkD and Khuzi here. Regarding Washington County (my home county), I think our strong Democratic lean comes from the breed of white liberalism unique to the Pacific Northwest - and increasing diversity in places like Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bethany, to name a few. An interesting anecdote; while Washington County is still very white, my high school recently became majority-minority - a sign of demographic trends here. Additionally, as the previous posters mentioned, Washington County is more educated than most, making it a pretty bad fit for Trump in addition to starting from a baseline way to the left of other suburbs.

That said, the overall reason for Oregon being Solid D is that whites are far more inclined to vote Democratic here then anywhere else in the nation. I'd probably attribute it to the Pacific Northwest's unique lefty culture, though again diversification has played a role here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's worth mentioning that most of us OR-avatars are either from or have lived in Washington County.

washington county uber alles

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its stunning that Chris Dudley nearly won Washington County in 2010 !

[Sol]

As VP OBD correctly diagnosed, Washington County's voting patterns come down to the essential fact that Portland is an extremely left-leaning city--its residents vote like people in Seattle or San Francisco, even though it's a bit smaller. This goes back to many west coast cities becoming havens for bohemians and hippies in the 1960s, as well as Portland's strong history of excellent urban planning.

Washington County specifically is more left-wing than Clackamas or Clark because:

1. It's a major center for tech companies.

2. Oregon has very highly regulated urban planning policies, including urban growth boundaries, which sort of work like UK greenbelt as a device to limit urban sprawl. I can't seem to find a good copyright-free image of the Portland urban growith boundary but if you google it you can see that much more of Washington County is in the boundary than Clackamas, which means much more of Washington is going to be densely built up.

3. Vancouver, over the river in Washington State, has historically been the 'escape valve' for people who want much less regulated land use, and is traditionally more attractive for conservatives too because WA has no income tax, while OR has no sales tax.

4. It's the favored quarter of Portland and in these screwy times richer suburbs are often voting more D than poorer ones.

[Person Man]

So basically Portland is pretty "built up" despite not being a very big city and there aren't that many small towns in the rural areas?

[sting in the rafters]

Typically the Democratic floor is 85% of the liberal vote and 50% of the moderate vote whereas the conservative floor is 80% of the conservative vote and 30% of the moderate vote. Oregon is one of the most ideologically liberal states in the union, as one of the few state where self-identified liberals outnumber conservatives as of 2019.

[Xing]

Same reason Washington isn’t more Republican: It has a strongly left-leaning urban base that turns out strongly and the current GOP is extremely toxic to its residents. If the statewide winner was based on who won the most counties, then several Democratic states (CO, IL, OR, VA, WA) would be Safe R.

[Skye]

Portland dominates.

Portland metro area dominates, to be more precise.

Yes, Portland and its suburbs are very Democratic nowadays. The Portland Metro area (i.e. Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas) cast 44% of the state's vote total, but Biden won it by 40 points. The rest of the state, which cast 56% of the vote, was won by Trump by just 3 points.

[pbrower2a]

Oregon is weird state where I feel like there are many things that work in the republicans favor but the stare is overwhelmingly democrat.

- most of the state outside of Portland votes Republican
- eastern Oregon is pretty much like Idaho
- it’s very white outside of Portland
- not a tax friendly state. They have no sales tax
- while Portland is a big city it’s not like LA, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, Bay Area. I mean Ohio has 3 metropolitan areas (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland) yet it still votes Republican

Why aren’t republicans more competitive in Oregon?

Outside of one big urban  area the rest of the state votes Republican? That describes Illinois well.

Eastern Oregon is much like Idaho? Sure, but western Minnesota is much like the Dakotas, and Minnesota is usually Safe or near-Safe D.

Vermont is very white, too.

Usually when you hear "such-and-such state has no... tax", it gets people on other things. Texas has no income tax, but it has a brutal sales tax. California has low property taxes, but its sales and income taxes are monstrosities.

Ohio has a large rural population outside of its cities, and it votes heavily Republican. As its medium-to-large cities other than Columbus shrink, the rural vote becomes more important.  Think of this: Indiana has Indianapolis, but Indiana votes almost reliably R.     

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wcw aren't red enough, same as in New england