Going forward, will Presidents that win reelection do so by a smaller margin...

[ShadowRocket]

Than their first victory? Such as was the case when Barack Obama won reelection in 2012.

I could see this being the normal.  Due to polarization, it seems like it'll be exceedingly difficult for a President to expand their support.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  There does still appear to be a meaningful incumbency advantage.  The economy was still really bad in 2012 compared to what people were used to before 2008.  I'm not at all convinced Dems win an open seat race in that environment.  Given 2016, they probably lose. 

[dw93]

Probably not.  There does still appear to be a meaningful incumbency advantage.  The economy was still really bad in 2012 compared to what people were used to before 2008.  I'm not at all convinced Dems win an open seat race in that environment.  Given 2016, they probably lose. 

I agree with this. After all, Trump ran for re election in the worst environment for a sitting President since at least Carter in 1980, if not Hoover in 1932 and damn near won.

[Person Man]

It's going to be 20 years since an incumbent improved and if this is a new "thing" then anyone who barely won in the first place is probably DOA. After 2020, I'm open to Biden improving maybe even by a few million votes, somehow doing worse and still holding on to the 22-23 states that Hillary needed (maybe swap out a rust belt state for a sunbelt one), and either being beaten while even still winning the popular vote, or getting him and the Dems completely annihilated.

[BG-NY]

What do closer wins for both Biden and Trump in 2024 look like? Realistic, not big brain threading the needle stuff.

[Roll Roons]

What do closer wins for both Biden and Trump in 2024 look like? Realistic, not big brain threading the needle stuff.

Biden would be his 2020 map minus Wisconsin.

Trump would be his 2016 map minus Georgia and maybe Michigan. 

[Skill and Chance]

Realistic skin-of-teeth Biden win for 2024: