Giuliani vs. Clinton

[Adlai Stevenson]

Senator Hillary Clinton prevails in the Democratic Primaries and is nominated for President at the Democratic National Convention in Denver - she announces her choice for Vice President, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico.

Mayor Ruldoph Giuliani emerges as the GOP nominee for President and accepts the Republican Party nomination in Minneapolis-Saint Paul.  He announces his choice for Vice President is Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi.

Also running is perennial third party candidate Ralph Nader and his running mate - Pat LaMarche of Maine.

[Deano963]

Clinton wins, easily.

The vast majority of voters outside NY have no idea about all of Rudy's skeletons - the only thing they know about him is how he handled 9/11 very well. Once voters start to learn about all his negatives (and there are MANY MANY MANY negatives to Rudy, he will sink  like a rock.

To be fair, though, I think that will happen during the Republican primary, so Rudy will not even be their nominee in the first place.

[Inmate Trump]

Rudy, though not easily.  It'd be a close election that could go either way, but I think Rudy would win it ultimately.

[auburntiger]

Probably something like this. I'm hoping for a clean-house Bush 41-style win in 1988, but I'm convinced that won't happen anytime soon.

Clinton/Vilsack vs. Giuliani/Huckabee

328-210 in Giuliani's favor.

Some possible state-by-state breakdowns:

Rudy's social liberalism helps him in Oregon and New Hampshire and among the independents, while he almost loses Arkansas and West Virginia due to economic issues, but picking Huckabee as a VP will help him win those two VERY NARROWLY.

Pennsylvania - Giuliani improves in the Philly suburbs while holding onto votes in western PA just enough to barely carry the state

Wisconsin and Iowa - VERY tight the whole campaign. Iowa could go to Hillary b/c of Vilsack.

Michigan and Minnesota - economic issues give Hillary a slight edge.

Washington - VERY close, but Democrat Seattle gives Hillary the edge as well.

New Jersey - same as Washington (the democratic machine)

New York - Polls consistently show hillary leading by 10-12 points.

Ohio - same as AR and WV

the Southwest = solidly Giuliani (libertarian approach to social issues and fiscal conservatism)
          Colorado = Giuliani by 10-12
          Nevada = Giuilani by 8-10
          New Mexico = Giuliani by 6-8

The South = solid Giuliani unless a strong third party candidate emerges (doubt it). but if so, then AR and WV will go Democrat


what do y'all think of that analysis. Reasonable?

[Reaganfan]

Giuliani/Barbour: 370
Clinton/Vilsack: 168

[© tweed]

If Giuliani is nominated, it means he's made some kind of peace with evangelicals and social conservatives.  They still won't be in love with him, not by any streatch, but 4/5 of them or so will fall in line come November.

And the national climate prevents a landslide of the proportion that Naso outlines in his wet dream above.


Coin-flip.  The election would be decided in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the southwest.  Giuliani wins Florida easily.  My best guess:

Clinton 285 Giuliani 253

If Giuliani is nominated after a Republican civil war with Brownback or somebody and a right-wing independent runs, he'd lose handily.

[Jersey-Con]

Giuliani wins easily. I cant see Clinton flipping any Bush states, but Rudy will have a broader appeal in some blue states. New Jersey loves him.

[7,052,770]

Clinton wins almost certainly, as does any Democrat over Guiliani.

[YRABNNRM]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

[Reaganfan]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

Don't pay attention to Harry, Andrew. He feels that it's very unlikely Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will be re-elected...and he actually wouldn't mind a President Hillary.

[auburntiger]

Giuliani wins easily. I cant see Clinton flipping any Bush states, but Rudy will have a broader appeal in some blue states. New Jersey loves him.

I know all GOPers want to win back states like New Jersey, but even with Giuliani, I just can't see this state ACTUALLY turning RED. It's their Democratic machine.

[Smash255]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

I could be wrong, but Harry could be thinking that

A.  conservatives, especially religious conservatives don't turn out

B  Third Party conservative.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Guiliani would win because of the "fresh face" need.  Hillary just has way too many skeletons and way too much baggage.  American's aren't exactly going to want Bill Clinton back in the White House.  Rudy has a lot of baggage, too, but less than Hillary.

[YRABNNRM]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

I could be wrong, but Harry could be thinking that

A.  conservatives, especially religious conservatives don't turn out

B  Third Party conservative.

But Smash you forget about the "vast right-wing conspiracy"

[7,052,770]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

Don't pay attention to Harry, Andrew. He feels that it's very unlikely Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will be re-elected...and he actually wouldn't mind a President Hillary.

yawn, I've never used the words "very unlikely."  In fact, with Mabus apparently changing his mind and Clark not running, I fear it is pretty likely.

Also, the fundies will stay home.  I've never claimed they'll vote Clinton instead.  But they'll stay home and not vote.  And being one of the few people on this forum to regularly interact with fundies (in fact one is in my room right now and saying I'm correct), and I know for a fact they WILL NOT vote for Guiliani.

[auburntiger]

If you think that right-wingers are going to vote for Clinton over Giuliani, especially after he's won the primary, you're crazy.

Don't pay attention to Harry, Andrew. He feels that it's very unlikely Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will be re-elected...and he actually wouldn't mind a President Hillary.

yawn, I've never used the words "very unlikely."  In fact, with Mabus apparently changing his mind and Clark not running, I fear it is pretty likely.

Also, the fundies will stay home.  I've never claimed they'll vote Clinton instead.  But they'll stay home and not vote.  And being one of the few people on this forum to regularly interact with fundies (in fact one is in my room right now and saying I'm correct), and I know for a fact they WILL NOT vote for Guiliani.

I interact with the "fundies" as you put it quite alot too actually. People would probably refer to me as one. The ones I'm around, the ones here in neighboring Alabama, will be more motivated to vote AGAINST Hillary than NOT vote at all, which mean voting FOR Giuliani. People here HATE that woman, and that will drive them to the polls.

Btw, what election and what year is your map of MS?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Giuliani