What will the Georgia Supreme Court election tell us about November?

[Woody]

title

[SnowLabrador]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

[President Johnson]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

So if the Democrat loses, you won't start making posts how this proves Biden is DOA in Georgia?

[David Hume]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

So if the Democrat loses, you won't start making posts how this proves Biden is DOA in Georgia?

There were only 3 contested SC races in GA since 2012. In two of them, the incumbent R justice won by landsildes. The only close election was between two Rs.

I expect the R incumbent to win easily this time as well.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

So if the Democrat loses, you won't start making posts how this proves Biden is DOA in Georgia?

There were only 3 contested SC races in GA since 2012. In two of them, the incumbent R justice won by landsildes. The only close election was between two Rs.

I expect the R incumbent to win easily this time as well.

Difference is, this is post-Dobbs and Dems have become supercharged for SC races, especially this one. I am seeing a lot of motivation for the one occurring tonight and i think the results may surprise a lot of you.

[GAinDC]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

So if the Democrat loses, you won't start making posts how this proves Biden is DOA in Georgia?

There were only 3 contested SC races in GA since 2012. In two of them, the incumbent R justice won by landsildes. The only close election was between two Rs.

I expect the R incumbent to win easily this time as well.

Difference is, this is post-Dobbs and Dems have become supercharged for SC races, especially this one. I am seeing a lot of motivation for the one occurring tonight and i think the results may surprise a lot of you.

i am too. I saw a couple posts about it from friends back home who are excited to vote for Barrow

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

For once I'm inclined to agree with you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Barrow wins, it suggests abortion's continuing saliency.

If he doesn't, which I don't think he will, it'll be because of low turnout among black voters and that will feed the narrative of Trump apparently improving with them.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1793062626362040430

[Unelectable Bystander]

Is this when blue avatars start pumping their chests and making blanket statements about the unpopularity of Dem policies? No, that only happens when Dems win local elections with 1,500 voters or nearly win deep red state governorships with A+ tier candidates.

[kwabbit]

If Barrow wins, it suggests abortion's continuing saliency.

If he doesn't, which I don't think he will, it'll be because of low turnout among black voters and that will feed the narrative of Trump apparently improving with them.

Pinson is getting like 40% with Black voters. He’s winning 90% Biden, 70% Black Clayton County. Barrow is making huge gains with rural Whites. Bizarre, depolarized election.

[Tiger08]

My dream politics would break down along these coalitions

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

Not quite randomly.  Uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  Pinson was tagged as the incumbent on the ballot, and I'd bet that was the deciding factor for a lot of voters -- not that they know who he is.  Barrow is doing well in areas he used to represent, where he has high name recognition and was a popular congressman for years.  This doesn't 100% explain the weird-looking split in this election, but it explains a lot of it.

[kwabbit]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

Not quite randomly.  Uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  Pinson was tagged as the incumbent on the ballot, and I'd bet that was the deciding factor for a lot of voters -- not that they know who he is.  Barrow is doing well in areas he used to represent, where he has high name recognition and was a popular congressman for years.  This doesn't 100% explain the weird-looking split in this election, but it explains a lot of it.

I’m confused by Barrow doing so well in mostly White places he didn’t represent. It’s clear that Black voters are choosing Pinson in large part due to incumbency, but then Pinson is doing a lot worse in NW Georgia than Trump. Pinson only at 63% in Cherokee County stands out, where it almost seems like Pinson is suffering due to incumbency. If no one knows anything, then I guess it makes sense that it would tend to a 60-40 type split.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

Not quite randomly.  Uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  Pinson was tagged as the incumbent on the ballot, and I'd bet that was the deciding factor for a lot of voters -- not that they know who he is.  Barrow is doing well in areas he used to represent, where he has high name recognition and was a popular congressman for years.  This doesn't 100% explain the weird-looking split in this election, but it explains a lot of it.

I’m confused by Barrow doing so well in mostly White places he didn’t represent. It’s clear that Black voters are choosing Pinson in large part due to incumbency, but then Pinson is doing a lot worse in NW Georgia than Trump. Pinson only at 63% in Cherokee County stands out, where it almost seems like Pinson is suffering due to incumbency. If no one knows anything, then I guess it makes sense that it would tend to a 60-40 type split.

Black areas along with a few educated suburban whites is why Pinson is dominating. The more African American a place is (outside of the old GA-12) the worse Barrow does relative to Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

Not quite randomly.  Uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  Pinson was tagged as the incumbent on the ballot, and I'd bet that was the deciding factor for a lot of voters -- not that they know who he is.  Barrow is doing well in areas he used to represent, where he has high name recognition and was a popular congressman for years.  This doesn't 100% explain the weird-looking split in this election, but it explains a lot of it.

I’m confused by Barrow doing so well in mostly White places he didn’t represent. It’s clear that Black voters are choosing Pinson in large part due to incumbency, but then Pinson is doing a lot worse in NW Georgia than Trump. Pinson only at 63% in Cherokee County stands out, where it almost seems like Pinson is suffering due to incumbency. If no one knows anything, then I guess it makes sense that it would tend to a 60-40 type split.

These state court elections are inherently less partisan and don't respond to "trends" as well.  WI Dems have regularly done Obama era well in western WI in their recent state court elections.  That could explain some of rural GA. 

[Skill and Chance]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

To at least some degree, it does seem to validate a shift away from Dems with Southern black voters?

[Fancyarcher]

Nothing. Voters are likely picking randomly.

To at least some degree, it does seem to validate a shift away from Dems with Southern black voters?

Heavens no. We need more examples, before we can start jumping to any conclusion.

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully (and probably) nothing, though the wide margin by which Pinson won worries me. Then again, you know me, I'm always worried.

[David Hume]

Nothing either way. This is a very low-turnout affair.

So if the Democrat loses, you won't start making posts how this proves Biden is DOA in Georgia?

There were only 3 contested SC races in GA since 2012. In two of them, the incumbent R justice won by landsildes. The only close election was between two Rs.

I expect the R incumbent to win easily this time as well.

Difference is, this is post-Dobbs and Dems have become supercharged for SC races, especially this one. I am seeing a lot of motivation for the one occurring tonight and i think the results may surprise a lot of you.

As I expected, the R incumbent won easily.

[Steve from Lambeth]

This election had little reflection on what is going to happen in November.  There was minimal awareness of this election and without a marquee race (such as Senate or gubernatorial)), you're just not going to get much of a turnout.   Especially at the end of May when school is letting out.

Furthermore, Barrow had little appeal to POC voters.  As a congressman in Athens and outlying counties, he had to operate as a conservative in order to survive his races.   This obviously is not going to carry over to these voters in Atlanta and the suburban areas--and it showed.

And the abortion issue alone wasn't going to get people to turn out in May.  I agree that this is not going to cut strongly for the Democrats in Georgia.  It may have some more impact in November--this remains to be seen.

[GAinDC]

That blexit is REAL and Biden will SURGE with the Meemaw and PopPop demographic