Sam Spade's 2008 Presidential Election/Primary Prediction Thread

[M]

Since I tend to enjoy your thought process:

Why are you so down on Romney - in another thread, even ranking him below McCain?

What do you make of the snowball effect from Iowa and possibly other states? Not a significant factor in this round, if so, why?

If Thompson's shot, why is he ahead of Huck?

What's your hypothetical McCain scenario? What's your hypothetical Richardson scenario?

[M]

AND - do you really feel that Obama has a better shot at his nomination than any non-Giuliani Republican does at theirs?

[Sam Spade]

Updated.

[Sam Spade]

Since I tend to enjoy your thought process:

Why are you so down on Romney - in another thread, even ranking him below McCain?

I moved Romney back above McCain now.  He seems to be getting traction in South Carolina and has steady leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.  The problem with Romney remains the same problem as always - electability.  It will play a factor, give it time. 

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It might happen, it might not.  It's very hard to tell.  Part of it may depend on media reaction.

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He's not anymore.  Thompson's probably done, but for some reason I give him a slight shot.

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McCain's scenario depends on a win in New Hampshire, plain and simple.

Richardson scenario is dependent on him finishing second in Iowa, an opportunity that may be slipping away.

[Sam Spade]

AND - do you really feel that Obama has a better shot at his nomination than any non-Giuliani Republican does at theirs?

Because of the fights the each non-top tier Republican will have to go through to get at the lead, yes.  But the longer Romney stays on top in Iowa and New Hampshire, the higher his probability chances will be.

It's a long way off, still.

[Sam Spade]

Updated.  I might get my primary strategery analysis up soon, maybe not.

[Mr. Morden]

Sam-

Your update in the OP reads "December 2007", though it's still November.

We've already discussed to death the question of how high Romney's chances should be rated relative to Giuliani's.  But aside from that, the only issue I can find with your analysis is that you're being far too generous to Richardson.  A 5% chance of winning the nomination?  I'd say 1-2% at best.  There's no reason why everyone's chance of victory has to be divisible by 5. 

[Aizen]

^True. Richardson is not going to win Iowa. Honestly, his chances of winning the nomination are about the same as Biden's. But tha's fine with him. He's obviously going for VP