Do competitive states have higher turnout?

[memphis]

I suspect that they would, but I don't have the numbers. Any of the stats guys want to make a regression?

[tokar]

Its probable.  I think people are going to wait a bit, at least until early December, when all absentee and provisional ballots have been counted.

The vote count is only at 120.52 million when there are still a host of election gurus who say that the vote count was more like 130-135 million, a number which won't show up until all absentee and provisional ballots are counted.

10-15 mil ballots won't change any of the general election outcomes (NC is pulling away from McCain as the ballots are counted, so don't expect NC to flip back to McCain), however it will affect down ballot races.  It has already pushed GA Senate into a runoff, MN Senate to a recount, and it has flipped OR Senate into the Democrats hands (probably for good).  And it will certainly affect a handful of house races across the country.

So lets wait until we get 100% of the vote counted before we start wasting time on hardcore analysis only 2 days removed from the election.