MO-Rasmussen: McCain clings to 5-point lead

[Tender Branson]

Missouri - Survey of 500 Likely Voters - July 7, 2008:

McCain: 47%
Obama: 42%

"Other": 6%
Undecided: 5%

When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 45%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

Including leaners, McCain is supported by 93% of Missouri Republicans and enjoys a sixteen percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a slight advantage among the unaffiliateds and this month he is supported by 80% of Democrats.

McCain: 58% favorable, 39% unfavorable
Obama: 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable

Link

[MasterJedi]

This is around what I expect the end result to be come November.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is around what I expect the end result to be come November.

[Flying Dog]

I expect turnout to be up in St. Louis so 2-3% is my guess.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Missouri will never go for Obongo in the general.  He is terrible match for that state.

[Flying Dog]

Missouri will never go for Obongo in the general.  He is terrible match for that state.

Obongo, that's a new one. Not that funny, though.

[Tender Branson]

Why would Obama go from a slight lead among Independents to a 16-point deficit within 1 month ? And why is McCain getting 93% of Republicans ?

[Sam Spade]

Why would Obama go from a slight lead among Independents to a 16-point deficit within 1 month ?

Could just be MOE movement. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Note the important two words in front of it "Including leaners".

Anyway, this is a summer state poll not Mason-Dixon - henceforth to trash you go.

[Alcon]

Looking at the subsamples, McCain seems to have scored in all the places he needs to.  In other words, probably an overestimation of his lead...but I agree with Sam (when don't I?)

[Sam Spade]

Looking at the subsamples, McCain seems to have scored in all the places he needs to.  In other words, probably an overestimation of his lead...but I agree with Sam (when don't I?)

Truth be told, I expect McCain to perform in MO about the same rate vis-a-vis his national numbers as Bush did in 2004 (or 2000, the difference is not really material).  So, considering present national numbers, that tells you were the poll fits in (or doesn't).

We do disagree plenty, however, not here though... 

[agcatter]

Not a surprise and jives with the +7 Survey USA poll two weeks ago.  The good news for Republicans is that McCain will win the state.  The bad news is that Mo isn't the bellweather state it has been in the past.

The election comes down to Ohio and Colorado in my opinion.  McCain wins both he'll sqeek by.  There's a 50% chance he wins with Ohio but loses Colorado.  There is a 0% chance he wins if he loses both.

[Democratic Hawk]

Considering that only 35% of MO voters approve of Bush, do they really want McCain?

Dave

[Alcon]

Considering that only 35% of MO voters approve of Bush, do they really want McCain?

Apparently a plurality of these 500 do.

[RJ]

Considering that only 35% of MO voters approve of Bush, do they really want McCain?

Dave

Isn't 35% higher than his national average?

[Democratic Hawk]

Considering that only 35% of MO voters approve of Bush, do they really want McCain?

Dave

Isn't 35% higher than his national average?

Yes, Rassmussen currently has Bush's national approval rating at 32%

[Reaganfan]

I love how if Obama leads the title would be "Obama leads by 5 points" but for McCain leading it is "McCain clings to a 5-point lead" like he is Jack Dawson hanging onto a floating door.

[Flying Dog]

I love how if Obama leads the title would be "Obama leads by 5 points" but for McCain leading it is "McCain clings to a 5-point lead" like he is Jack Dawson hanging onto a floating door.

Again with the bitching and moaning.

[Aizen]

I don't know why Obama is making such a huge effort here.

[auburntiger]

Trust me, Missouri will end up being a razor thin margin between 1-3%, Why? African-Americans in Kansas City and St. Louis will turn out BIGTIME!, and college students in the Columbia area too.

Obama probably has a 50/50 shot of winning Missouri...IF he can beef up black and youth voter turnout.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama under-polled in Missouri in the primary (if you ignore Zogby).