Why Kerry will Win Florida

[CollectiveInterest]

Florida is migrating into the Dem base for presidential elections. In four consecutive elections Florida has become more Democratic. And unlike the gains of Dems in AZ or VA or the gains by Republicans in WV, the gains have been consistent and substantial.

In 1984 Florida was the 39th most Democratic state (of 51 because DC gets EVs).

In 1988 Florida was 45th.

In 1992 Florida was 35th.

In 1996 Florida was 28th.

In 2000 Florida was 22nd.

Now the Dems and NAACP made a major effort to GOTV in 2000. But the underlying demographics are good for Dems and bad for Republicans.

Florida is one of the fastest growing states along with Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Nevada. But these new Floridians are mostly retirees coming from Democratic states and Carribbean immigrants.

If Florida were to move up five places in the Democratic ranking (it's moved up at least six places in three consecutive elections) Florida will be as Democratic as PA, OR or MN were in 2000.

If the electorate is evenly divided again Kerry should win Florida by 2.3-2.5%.

Bush will win Florida by 4% over his national average. Bush 56 Kerry 43, wannabees 1%.

Do you have logic to refute the argument I made or are you just spouting what you believe to be true without any facts to support it?

[Shira]

Logically Bush should win Florida this time round (but since when did logic have anything to do with voting patterns?)...

Just the opposite.
Logically Kerry should win Florida, because of the rapidly changing demography, but Bush might win it if his national number will be 52% or above.

[??????????]

Florida is migrating into the Dem base for presidential elections. In four consecutive elections Florida has become more Democratic. And unlike the gains of Dems in AZ or VA or the gains by Republicans in WV, the gains have been consistent and substantial.

In 1984 Florida was the 39th most Democratic state (of 51 because DC gets EVs).

In 1988 Florida was 45th.

In 1992 Florida was 35th.

In 1996 Florida was 28th.

In 2000 Florida was 22nd.

Now the Dems and NAACP made a major effort to GOTV in 2000. But the underlying demographics are good for Dems and bad for Republicans.

Florida is one of the fastest growing states along with Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Nevada. But these new Floridians are mostly retirees coming from Democratic states and Carribbean immigrants.

If Florida were to move up five places in the Democratic ranking (it's moved up at least six places in three consecutive elections) Florida will be as Democratic as PA, OR or MN were in 2000.

If the electorate is evenly divided again Kerry should win Florida by 2.3-2.5%.

Bush will win Florida by 4% over his national average. Bush 56 Kerry 43, wannabees 1%.

Do you have logic to refute the argument I made or are you just spouting what you believe to be true without any facts to support it?

JEB, who was just going to be swept out of office easily actually won handily by 13%.

[CollectiveInterest]

How do the 2002 governors race apply in the 2004 presidential race?

[jimrtex]

Florida is migrating into the Dem base for presidential elections. In four consecutive elections Florida has become more Democratic.

In 1972, Florida was 45th
In 1976, Florida was 16th
In 1980, Florida was 32nd

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Conclusion: Florida rejects McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis; while giving greater support to Carter, Clinton, and Gore.  

And vice versa.  A 5% bump in Florida for a southerner, or a 5% drop in the North when a southerner runs, will both lift Florida's ranking.

[Shira]

Florida is migrating into the Dem base for presidential elections. In four consecutive elections Florida has become more Democratic.

In 1972, Florida was 45th
In 1976, Florida was 16th
In 1980, Florida was 32nd

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Conclusion: Florida rejects McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis; while giving greater support to Carter, Clinton, and Gore.  

And vice versa.  A 5% bump in Florida for a southerner, or a 5% drop in the North when a southerner runs, will both lift Florida's ranking.

Could well be that Bush will win in FL, but I repeat: his number there will be LESS then his national number.

In 1998 H.W.Bush got in FL 7.5% above his national number
In 1992 H.W.Bush got in FL 3.44% above his national number
In 1996 Dole got in FL 1.6% above his national number.
In 2000 Bush  got in FL 1.0% above his national number.

The reason for this significant decline is not because people have changed their ideology, but rather because the makeup of Florida’s population has substantially changed during these twelve years in favor of people who tend more to vote Dem.
The above numbers are not statistical noise, but rather reflecting a steady trend.

[jimrtex]

Could well be that Bush will win in FL, but I repeat: his number there will be LESS then his national number.

Quite possibly.  Bush lost NJ by 12%, PA by 4%, MN by 2.4%.  IA and WI were close, but even with return of some of the Nader vote to the Democrats, these states are competitive.

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Against Dukakis.  Floridians thought that the candidate from Massachusetts was an even worse candidate than the country at large.

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Against Clinton and Gore.  It seems reasonable that a Southerner/Populist would do better than Dukakis.

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Against Clinton and Gore.  Other southern states are turning on Clinton at a faster rate than Florida.  Perot votes return to Bush.

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Against Gore.  Bush picked up votes in the south and Mississippi Valley.

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You ignored earlier data that was contrary to your "trend", in particular the elections where Carter ran, and the Republican candidate was below the national average.

Rank the elections by year (1976 = 0...2004 = 7), and also rank the elections by proximity of the candidates (1988-Dukakis = 0; 1984-Mondale = 1;  2004-Kerry = 2; 1996-Clinton = 3; 1992-Clinton = 4; 2000=Gore = 5; 1980-Carter = 6; 1976-Carter = 7)

Figure out the correlation of (Bush_Florida - Bush_USA) against the two above independent variables,and see which is the better predictor (Year or Southerness).  Then project for 2004.

The original comparison of Florida's ranking in Democratic percentage.

In 1988, the FL Dem% was only ahead of UT, ID, AK, NH, SC, NV, and WY.

In 1992, the FL Dem% surpassed all those states except SC and NE, OK, AZ, KN, ND, IN, TX, SD, MT, and ME.  So does this mean a leftward lurch for Florida, or midwestern states not shifting towards the southern candidate?  I say it is the latter, unless SC was being taken over by leftists.

In 1996, the FL Dem% surpassed all the above, except NH and ME, and added AL, NC, MS, CO, VA, GA, KY, OR, OH, MO, and TN.  The south is starting to catch on to Clinton.

In 2000. the FL Dem% surpassed all the above, plus NH, IA, NM, MN, WI, AR, WV, and LA.  Your interpretation is that Florida is now more liberal than places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc.  (Minnesota has the longest curren streak of Democrat wins).  My interpretation is that places like AR, LA, and NM shift towards the candidate from the neighboring state, and states like MN, WI, and IA are now in play.

Bush will be quite happy with 52% national vs. 51% in Florida.  That means he holds Florida, picks up some in the upper MW and perhpas PA..

[??????????]

How do the 2002 governors race apply in the 2004 presidential race?

Because JEB was going to be swept out of office as revenge for his brother "stealing" the state. How much money did the DNC pump into Florida. They failed.

[MODU]

How do the 2002 governors race apply in the 2004 presidential race?

Because JEB was going to be swept out of office as revenge for his brother "stealing" the state. How much money did the DNC pump into Florida. They failed.

Agreed.  

[Democratic Hawk]

The Florida of today is very different from that of the 1980s. It is, perhaps, the most 'unsouthern' southern state.

I think Kerry still has a pretty good chance. Chances would  probably have been significantly better had Bob Graham not stood down as senator. If the Democrats can maximse their turn-out they can still pull it off.

Dave

[MODU]

Bush is twice as likely to win Florida than Kerry.  

[Democratic Hawk]

I read in The Times last week that young Cuban hispanics are not so pro-Reoublican as older ones. Could that have a significant impact on the final result? - assuming that Jews and African Americans vote monolithically for Kerry.

Dave

[Shira]

Against Clinton and Gore.  Other southern states are turning on Clinton at a faster rate than Florida.  Perot votes return to Bush.

FL is not a "southern" state. The southern part of FL is more like NY.

Your assumption that Perot voters were Reps is totally incorrect as per all studies and analysis of election results.

When we talk about difference between FL and National, you have to remember that Perot was on FL as well as on the national ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Florida of today is very different from that of the 1980s. It is, perhaps, the most 'unsouthern' southern state.

It wasn't very Southern in the '80's either

[MODU]

Against Clinton and Gore.  Other southern states are turning on Clinton at a faster rate than Florida.  Perot votes return to Bush.

FL is not a "southern" state. The southern part of FL is more like NY.

Your assumption that Perot voters were Reps is totally incorrect as per all studies and analysis of election results.

When we talk about difference between FL and National, you have to remember that Perot was on FL as well as on the national ballot.

I'm not a Republican, but a Perot-Reformer.  Not sure what I would have called my self before Perot showed up.  Maybe just a Moderate or Independent.  Perot has been the closest to my views so far, with the Republican party not too far behind.

[??????????]

90% of Florida from the Lake, North is southern. And don't say "no" if you haven't been here because I am sure that 95% of you posting here haven't been anywhere but Orlando or Miami.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

90% of Florida from the Lake, North is southern. And don't say "no" if you haven't been here because I am sure that 95% of you posting here haven't been anywhere but Orlando or Miami.

More or less true

[??????????]

90% of Florida from the Lake, North is southern. And don't say "no" if you haven't been here because I am sure that 95% of you posting here haven't been anywhere but Orlando or Miami.

More or less true

Some parts of central Florida make Alabama look yankee. Some folks I work with their accent is so thick I can't even understand them.