Observations

[Sam Spade]

Yes, I know.  It's only June 29.  The same observations will apply in two days as they apply now barring something ridiculous.  In fact, they would have applied just as well three weeks ago as they do now.

With the arrival of Independence Day, this rather short period (considering the past few elections) between the naming of the candidates and the beginning of the summer season has now ended.  Just in case anyone is confused, I consider Independence Day to Labor Day to be the definition of *summer* in terms of polling/electioneering.

Anyway, not much has changed since the Obama nomination win and now, as quite rightly it shouldn't.  Note that I am ignoring the extra parts of the bump that occurred right after clinching the nomination, which settled into the race as stands now (this sentence sounds too complicated, so I be confusing people).

So where is the race right now?

The two RV polls that I trust have it at Obama +4.0%.  The two LV polls that I trust have it at Obama +6.0%.  My *super-secret* formula of computing state polls (which is based mainly on Rasmussen, historically better than SUSA (even in 2000!) and definitely less prone to exaggeration this far out) has it at Obama 3.5%.  Considering the various movement angles, and what I think is actually going on, I would say that for RV, Obama has about a 3-4 point lead - add a couple of points to that and you have the LV margin.  (I trust my state poll formula more than national polls, fwiw, and Gallup for the last week or so, has been more in the 2-3% range than the 4% - just to deflect allegations of potential partisanship  )

Now, you can believe whichever mark you want to.  Personally, I place more emphasis on the RV polls, just because it is often hard to gauge this far out what exactly a *likely voter* is.  Moreover, one of the basic rules of polling is that Republicans tend to poll 2-3% better in LV polls than RV polls.  The opposite observation indicates to me an obvious fact - Democrats are a good bit more enthused than Republicans right now.  However, the simple fact is that this gap will close and flip (or in the best case scenario stay even - like in 2000) at some point between Labor Day and election day (if it hasn't flipped yet, McCain is probably behind and you have to watch out for 1996 situations then).

Where are we going in the next couple of months?

Into the *no-man's land* of summer polling!

As I have mentioned before, do not trust any state polls not named Mason-Dixon.  This includes Rasmussen because of the one-day sample quirk.  I would still trust the tracking polls and the more sensibly weighted national polls such IBD/TIPP, WSJ, Fox News, Battleground.  The normal Gallup poll will do its typical bumping around - take it for what it's work.

But be careful - a lot of bump-prone events occur during this time, as well as the ubiquitous "voter not home" problem.

What are the cycle of events that will occur?

The cycle of events that should happen is this:
1) Candidates name VP choices, get respective one-day bumps.
2) Obama's lead from now until the convention should roughly stay the same or increase slightly, barring scandal or unforeseen events.
3) Obama gets large-sized bump out of convention.
4) After convention, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.
5) The purpose of these things is to kill the bounce, and show steady Republican momentum going into the convention.
6) McCain gets large-sized bump out of convention which should put him into the lead (if it doesn't, the race is likely over barring disaster for Obama.
7) During September, the McCain convention bump will die, but he should maintain a lead which grows towards the end of September, entering into the Presidential debates.
8 ) It is during September when we should start paying attention to state polls again, but remind ourselves that these polls are likely to lean too strongly Republican (unless for some reason the GOP electorate doesn't awaken, which may well occur should McCain stay behind)
9) The debates will occur - they are quite important, but are most effective at blunting or creating enthusiasm for one candidate or another (rather than actually changing minds).
10) After the debates end, usually by the second week of October, GOP influence in polling will be at its peak, unless, as mentioned before, McCain is behind.
11) It is at that point, the polling becomes important as the intermittent voters start appearing in polls.  They swing Democratic and will pull the race closer, should McCain be ahead.

Is the election over OR what signs should I look for that the election is over?

The election is certainly far from over at this point.  Obviously, there is a lot of flexibility in the electorate still.  But most importantly, the gut sense one should take from the election is that the voters want a Democrat, but have not yet decided that they want Obama.  Obama is still favored decently strongly (somewhere in-between 60-40 and 2-1), but the longer the voters take to make that decision, the more likely it is that they may choose to revert back to the *safer* status quo.

The first time we will be able to tell if the election is over is if McCain is not leading after the Republican Convention (the real bump).  Most likely it will need to be outside the MOE, but in order to have any chance at all, there needs to be some lead.

I might add to that in order to win, McCain needs to probably be leading or at minimum tied at all points through September, in addition to the convention.

When we reach the second week or so of October, our last chance to tell if its over will be upon us.  This will be after the debates.  Once again, McCain needs to be leading at this point, probably outside the MOE in order to have a strong chance to win (i.e. better than today, which likely means a 50-50 shot).  I would give him a potential shot at winning if he's below the MOE, but the chance is probably as good as his present odds, if not slightly worse.  If he's tied, he's a long shot to win - will probably need a scandal or something to take down Obama a bit.  If he's behind, it's over.

This is entirely because the Democratic candidate normally gains in the last couple of weeks of the election as the last intermittents come in.  NOW, if the intermittents are already paying attention at that point or if for some reason Republicans still aren't paying attention, then the odds look better for McCain that the above paragraph suggests.  But that type of situation has never occurred in a close election, and I don't suspect 2008 will be any different.
That's really about it - any questions/comments, you know that type of thing...

[Torie]

Interesting analysis, but the party SES profiles might be different than the past. There has been an increase in the Dem SES profile, and a slide in the GOP one over time since 1988. That trend might accelerate this time, and the Obama voters  might have a higher SES profile than the McCain profiles, particularly if we are talking about non black voters. If the non black voter profile of voters leaning to McCain or close it it is relatively downscale, the floater voters might not float that much to Obama near the end of the election.

I would also note that there was a big break to Reagan in 1980 in the last two weeks. That was due to Reagan establishing he had gravitas in the debates, which some voters (including myself) had questions about. Charlie Cook has suggested that if Obama can establish in the debates that he is not a risky scheme, there might be a big break to him. I tend to doubt that however. I suspect most voters accept that Obama is competent to be president (it's his views that are the issue).

One final issue is whether the young will continue their relatively high level of enthusiasm and vote, or get bored and not, if the election becomes more like the same old, same old kind of race.  Keeping up "Messiah fervor" can by psychologically exhausting and tough to maintain over extended periods of time. There tends to be a burn out factor.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting analysis, but the party SES profiles might be different than the past. There has been an increase in the Dem SES profile, and a slide in the GOP one. That might accelerate this time, and the Obama voters  might have a higher SES profile than the McCain profiles, particularly if we are talking about non black voters. If the non black voter profile of voters leaning to McCain or close it it is relatively downscale, the floater voters might not float that much to Obama near the end of the election.

If you're basing this on what you see right now, I suggest that you throw it out entirely. 

I am not saying that there might not be an increase in the Dem profile that could reflect patterns that would relate to the 1980s in terms of party ID (as opposed to the stable 1992-2004 formula) and a subsequent decrease in party ID for the GOP.  What this would mean is that more independents in the 1992-2004 are identifying as Dems and more GOPers in that same formula are identifying as Indys.  Means also that would see Indys float over to the GOP side, provided the election is fairly close.

The intermittent voters are who they are.  They typically are not the *swing* voters - the swing voters are already showing up for the most part - they always do.  If they do tend to be more lower income than normal, then there could be more volatility than normal, but I'm leery.

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First off, there is a big difference in my mind between a non-incumbent election and an incumbent election.  Second, the swing occurred post-debate in 1980, which as to my memory was 5 days before, not two weeks before, the election.  I seem to remember Pat Caddell, who was Carter's pollster, saying a number of times that they had the election tied prior to that debate.

What happened post-debate I have long suspected is this - 1) Democratic energy fell (i.e. the standard intermittents went off the radar and didn't show up, as they are wont to do if they lose interest); 2) the second-tier intermittents showed up (the folks who showed up in 1992 and 2004 and swing Republican); 3) Some weak Carter supporters bumped over to Anderson.

If the race had gone on another week, Reagan would have still won, but probably by about half.  It's one of the rare times where the election occurred during the cycle of a bump-prone event (2000 is the only other election that comes to mind in recent memory which might qualify as this).

[Josh/Devilman88]

Sam what does you map look like right now? What states show both side watch?

[Flying Dog]

There will always be surprises. It wouldn't be a U.S. Presidential election without them.

[Sam Spade]

Sam what does you map look like right now? What states show both side watch?

Probably somewhat around where your signature is at present, except I think Ohio and Virginia could be one way or the other right now.  Your present map (reading the colors as I am) is Obama 292 to McCain 246, btw, not 310-228.

So, in other words, Obama 272-305 to McCain 233-266, leaning more towards the 305 to 233 number.  This actually shows the weakness of the Obama electoral profile quite nicely, when I think about it, using my calculation that he is up by 3.5%.

Probably also explains why the Obama people may actually try to widen the map at this point in the campaign (whether it will be effective later is another story entirely).

[Sam Spade]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

[Nym90]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

So if I understand correctly, the attacks will still come in August anyway, even though this is pre-Dem convention? If so, will the Dem convention occuring after the attacks, as opposed to 2004 where it came before them (Swift Boating) have an effect in helping to cancel the attacks out long term in the public's mind? Obama does have that key advantage over Kerry in that his convention is later and thus he'll be able to respond to anything that's happened in August, whereas Kerry had the one-two punch of swiftboating in August and the GOP convention in early September which put him in a big deficit in the polls throughout September that he almost but wasn't quite able to climb out of in October.

[Sam Spade]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

So if I understand correctly, the attacks will still come in August anyway, even though this is pre-Dem convention?

If so, will the Dem convention occuring after the attacks, as opposed to 2004 where it came before them (Swift Boating) have an effect in helping to cancel the attacks out long term in the public's mind?

The Republican convention starts 4 days after the Democratic convention ends.  Probably not, actually.  The attacks come in August in these types of situations.  Odd but true - and there's a reason.

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You well could be right, but any advantage Obama gains through the convention will be lost quite quickly by the Republican convention following right after.

[Flying Dog]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

So if I understand correctly, the attacks will still come in August anyway, even though this is pre-Dem convention?

If so, will the Dem convention occuring after the attacks, as opposed to 2004 where it came before them (Swift Boating) have an effect in helping to cancel the attacks out long term in the public's mind?

The Republican convention starts 4 days after the Democratic convention ends.  Probably not, actually.  The attacks come in August in these types of situations.  Odd but true - and there's a reason.

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You well could be right, but any advantage Obama gains through the convention will be lost quite quickly by the Republican convention following right after.

So basically the Conventions are moot?

[Nym90]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

So if I understand correctly, the attacks will still come in August anyway, even though this is pre-Dem convention?

If so, will the Dem convention occuring after the attacks, as opposed to 2004 where it came before them (Swift Boating) have an effect in helping to cancel the attacks out long term in the public's mind?

The Republican convention starts 4 days after the Democratic convention ends.  Probably not, actually.  The attacks come in August in these types of situations.  Odd but true - and there's a reason.

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You well could be right, but any advantage Obama gains through the convention will be lost quite quickly by the Republican convention following right after.

Yeah, that should nuke the bounce pretty effectively (of course it's called a bounce for a reason as it generally recedes anyway...) especially if McCain does the smart thing and waits until after the Dem convention to announce his VP pick.

I was just thinking in terms of that at least he can respond to the attacks at the convention....if swiftboating had occured prior to the Dem convention in '04, Kerry may have been able to more effectively counter the charges.

The Willie Horton business came out in August of 1988 also didn't it? I can't think of any specific examples of particularly vicious attacks against Clinton or Gore in August of any of their three campaigns however.

[MarkWarner08]

bump.  My observations should have noted that I stupidly thought the Dem convention was before the Olympics, rather than afterwards, so right now we're technically in after-convention mode.

4) After convention or in this case before Olympics - which will take down the campaign for a little while - yes I screwed my time-line up a little, it wasn't late July convention, rather late August, ugh, expect Republicans to begin the full-scale nasty attacks on Obama.  This is usually correlated to happen in August when the *presently-asleep* GOP base tends to start to awaken.

So if I understand correctly, the attacks will still come in August anyway, even though this is pre-Dem convention?

If so, will the Dem convention occuring after the attacks, as opposed to 2004 where it came before them (Swift Boating) have an effect in helping to cancel the attacks out long term in the public's mind?

The Republican convention starts 4 days after the Democratic convention ends.  Probably not, actually.  The attacks come in August in these types of situations.  Odd but true - and there's a reason.

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You well could be right, but any advantage Obama gains through the convention will be lost quite quickly by the Republican convention following right after.

So basically the Conventions are moot?

No. The momentum gained from the DNC will by mitigated by McCain's bounce from the RNC. Net result: Little or no gain for either party.

[Sam Spade]

I'm bumping this, as I have one observation to make.  Note that I've changed the title of the thread too.  I will be posting a longer pre-convention diatribe in the next day or two, so be prepared.

Here's my one observation for the present -

Using my state poll conglomeration, along with national polls, tracking polls and assumed summer bias, I think a conclusion can be made that this race has averaged somewhere between an Obama 1.0% and Obama 1.5% lead for the last four weeks.  It could be less now than it was four weeks ago or who knows, maybe more.  I personally doubt it has changed much.

Now that we are done with the silly summer season, we know where to begin...