IN-SurveyUSA: McCain slightly ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

McCain: 48%
Obama: 45%

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Indiana adults 09/28/08 and 09/29/08. Of them, 802 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 687 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.

Indiana has 11 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Indiana by 21 points in 2004 and by 16 points in 2000. Polling conducted during an unprecedented time of economic and political turbulence.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a20e258c-23a3-4d41-969f-3528db8b5caf

[Eraserhead]

Obama won't carry it but its still funny to see it this close.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Entered.

[Tender Branson]

Obama won't carry it but its still funny to see it this close.

True.

Best case scenario for Obama:

Whites (88%): Obama 44%, McCain 56%
African-Americans (8%): Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Others (4%): Obama 70%, McCain 30%

State: McCain 51%, Obama 49%

[Sam Spade]

All throughout this cycle, Indiana polls have, IMO, overestimated young voters too much.  Not that it would really change things *very* much (at all), but it's something I keep in mind.

[Lunar]

All throughout this cycle, Indiana polls have, IMO, overestimated young voters too much.  Not that it would really change things *very* much (at all), but it's something I keep in mind.

Indiana has youngest electorate outside of Illinois in the entire region, are you basing this off of actual numbers or relative to other polls?

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

INDIANA PRESIDENT -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  1% Others


INDIANA GOVERNOR -
54% (R) Daniels
45% (D) Long-Thompson

[Sam Spade]

Did you look at the Gov poll?

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 38% (42%): McCain 85% (82%); Obama 12% (12%)

Democrat 37% (36%): McCain 15% (19%); Obama 82% (77%)

Independent 18% (15%): McCain 42% (39%); Obama 45% (51%)

Conservative 34% (36%): McCain 85% (85%); Obama 11% (12%)

Moderate 39% (38%): McCain 38% (38%); Obama 56% (57%)

Liberal 12% (12%): McCain 9% (6%); Obama 85% (82%)

Top issue - the economy 61% (45%): Obama 49% (49%); McCain 45% (46%)

(denotes SUSA, Aug. 16-18, 2008)