Democrat tickkets 04?

[Ben.]

At the moment (and  may I say I realise we have Gephardt and Edwards supporters on the board) it looks like Dean is going to pile money into Iowa and blow Gephardt out of the water and then coast to the nomination with perhaps an act of defiance from Clarke or Edwards in SC…

So who does Dean pick as his VP? In my view you have a very wide selection however I would say the leading contenders are…

1.)Clarke: Despite entering the race he’s still gota be the number one for the VP most dem activists see a Dean/ Clarke ticket as the best of both worlds with each candidate papering over the others weaknesses. But both have the weakness of being inconsistent at times but Clarke can still equal the Republicans on national defence and Dean can tout his Vermont Governor record of fiscal discipline and his crowd pleasing (that would be a democratic crowd) “Iraq war has been a failure but we have t solider on” and his “I am a doctor therefore I can speak with authority on healthcare and many domestic issues” (plus I can spin a nifty bio-ad to win supporters in swing states).

2.) Graham: Decent, Moderate, Calm, he is all these things and he’s southern but he has health problems and added to this he is can be boring at times. However he has senate experience which in a VP would be what you are looking for especially when a President Dean would have to negotiate with a Congress that will almost certainly be Republican.

3.) Bill Richardson: Governor of New Mexico his background as a former House member, United Nations ambassador and now as a Cabinet secretary makes this California-born Catholic Hispanic with an Anglo name a player. He could counter the appeal of Bush amongst Hispanics and so lock up states that are probably democratic but will require the nominee’s time in campaigning or tip states like NM and AZ into the Democratic column (an other state where this will be important will be Florida where in 2000 Hispanics largely deserted the democrats) in addition to this he could help compel Hispanics in states such as Georgia, Texas and the North to register and get out the vote for Democratic congressional candidates.

4.) Evan Bayh: Moderate, Very Moderate but not too moderate. Attractive young looking with gubernational experience in a GOP leaning state all of which is a plus. The down side for Dean would be that Bayh is from the DLC and Dean and the DLC have never been the best of buddies but still it is a possibly successful ticket.

Any More Thoughts?

And How might these tickets play out against Bush/Cheny?    

[StevenNick]

Dean/Clark is a real possibility for the Dem ticket in '04.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Dean/Edwards ticket, but I think Dean is going to want a candidate who is at least moderately credible on National Defense to balance his own dovishness.  Dean/Clark is more likely than Dean/Edwards.

It could be Dean/Gephardt.  Dean may think he has a chance in the Midwest if he puts Gephardt on the ticket.

Or, of course, the vice-presidential candidate could be someone else entirely.  It won't be any of the DLC type establishment democrats.  No Baye, no Richardson.

He'll may want a governor to keep going with the "outsider" image.  None really jump out at me as obvious choices, though.

In any case, I think its pretty obvious that my money's on Dean to win the nomination.

[John]

I Think Dean & Clark will be the Democats in 04 & Lose to Bush

[jravnsbo]

Welcome john, new bie here too within the last few days.

[Flying Dog]

a dean/gephardt ticket whould be fantastic!!!! but they hate each others guts

[jravnsbo]

Dean/Gephardt- don't see it, they hate each other as you say, plus Gephardt is all in on this deal.  he isn't running for the House and has always had to play 2d fiddle to everyone.  2d to Foley and then Foley gets beat and he has his chance at Speaker but Dems losepower for first time in 40 years, what luck.  Then he was stuck as minority leader for the rest of the 90's and never could get to be Speaker so went all in for Prez.

[NHPolitico]

At the moment (and  may I say I realise we have Gephardt and Edwards supporters on the board) it looks like Dean is going to pile money into Iowa and blow Gephardt out of the water and then coast to the nomination with perhaps an act of defiance from Clarke or Edwards in SC…

So who does Dean pick as his VP? In my view you have a very wide selection however I would say the leading contenders are…

1.)Clarke: Despite entering the race he’s still gota be the number one for the VP most dem activists see a Dean/ Clarke ticket as the best of both worlds with each candidate papering over the others weaknesses. But both have the weakness of being inconsistent at times but Clarke can still equal the Republicans on national defence and Dean can tout his Vermont Governor record of fiscal discipline and his crowd pleasing (that would be a democratic crowd) “Iraq war has been a failure but we have t solider on” and his “I am a doctor therefore I can speak with authority on healthcare and many domestic issues” (plus I can spin a nifty bio-ad to win supporters in swing states).

2.) Graham: Decent, Moderate, Calm, he is all these things and he’s southern but he has health problems and added to this he is can be boring at times. However he has senate experience which in a VP would be what you are looking for especially when a President Dean would have to negotiate with a Congress that will almost certainly be Republican.

3.) Bill Richardson: Governor of New Mexico his background as a former House member, United Nations ambassador and now as a Cabinet secretary makes this California-born Catholic Hispanic with an Anglo name a player. He could counter the appeal of Bush amongst Hispanics and so lock up states that are probably democratic but will require the nominee’s time in campaigning or tip states like NM and AZ into the Democratic column (an other state where this will be important will be Florida where in 2000 Hispanics largely deserted the democrats) in addition to this he could help compel Hispanics in states such as Georgia, Texas and the North to register and get out the vote for Democratic congressional candidates.

4.) Evan Bayh: Moderate, Very Moderate but not too moderate. Attractive young looking with gubernational experience in a GOP leaning state all of which is a plus. The down side for Dean would be that Bayh is from the DLC and Dean and the DLC have never been the best of buddies but still it is a possibly successful ticket.

Any More Thoughts?

And How might these tickets play out against Bush/Cheny?    

Dean-Harkin or Dean-Graham
Clark-Bayh or Clark-Durbin or Clark-Sarbanes

[© tweed]

Edwards was sucking up to Dean last night, I think he really wants that VP slot.

[jravnsbo]

lots of it going both ways.  Dean has been propping up Edwards lately too and Harkin did the same for Edwards the other day too.

[MAS117]

what i love is that foreginers spell CLARK, CLARKE

[opebo]

Assuming Dean wins the nomination, who would be the most advantageous VP?  Not Clark, who is such a vague, half-baked non-entity that I doubt he'd even turn Arkansas, and certainly no other states.  I think VP is not that useful except if it is someone very strongly popular from a big swing state, since they have little national effect, outside their home state.  So Graham from Florida is the best.  Its possible he could turn that state, but very likely no others.  However, that would be enough.  Edwards could not turn NC, which is solid Bush.  He barely won the senate seat there and is not popular.  Richardson would just make sure NM stayed Dem, I don't think he'd turn Arizona.  Besides even if he did, and Bush won Florida, kept Ohio, and gained IA/MN/WI, it wouldn't matter.  Gephart wouldn't give Dean Missouri - he's unpopular statewide outside his district - though he might help hold IA/MN/WI.  I doubt he'd make much difference in OH.  

So it comes down to Graham, even though he's such a sad sack.

[© tweed]

Assuming Dean wins the nomination, who would be the most advantageous VP?  Not Clark, who is such a vague, half-baked non-entity that I doubt he'd even turn Arkansas, and certainly no other states.  I think VP is not that useful except if it is someone very strongly popular from a big swing state, since they have little national effect, outside their home state.  So Graham from Florida is the best.  Its possible he could turn that state, but very likely no others.  However, that would be enough.  Edwards could not turn NC, which is solid Bush.  He barely won the senate seat there and is not popular.  Richardson would just make sure NM stayed Dem, I don't think he'd turn Arizona.  Besides even if he did, and Bush won Florida, kept Ohio, and gained IA/MN/WI, it wouldn't matter.  Gephart wouldn't give Dean Missouri - he's unpopular statewide outside his district - though he might help hold IA/MN/WI.  I doubt he'd make much difference in OH.  

So it comes down to Graham, even though he's such a sad sack.

Edwards could still turn Arkansas and Louisiana and would make a dent in NC, forcing bush to spend some $$$$ there.

[Nation]

I've heard that a lot of people in North Carolina don't like Edwards, but if he DID get the VP slot, I think he'd really help out the southern vote. He could do more of his campaigning around there, saving Dean from some of the verbal flak he'll get for his religious comments (that seems to have offended some democrats in the south).

I saw someone mentions Sarbanes, which I assume is Paul Sarbanes, the Democratic Senator from Maryland. He's a great guy; not the most energetic fellow, but a great guy nonetheless.

[opebo]

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Well, maybe, but my theory is that these VP candidates can only at best drag their own state along, where they're popular (if they're popular in their home state).   I just don't think Edwards is a national figure - by that I mean that he's not going to appeal to all southerners across that large region just because he's a southerner himself.  After all, they would know they're really voting for a liberal northeasterner for president, and the VP doesn't really matter.   Can anyone who would like to refute this theory point to VP's who really changed things nationally?  Did more than carry their own state against the grain of the Presidential nominee?

[Gustaf]

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Well, maybe, but my theory is that these VP candidates can only at best drag their own state along, where they're popular (if they're popular in their home state).   I just don't think Edwards is a national figure - by that I mean that he's not going to appeal to all southerners across that large region just because he's a southerner himself.  After all, they would know they're really voting for a liberal northeasterner for president, and the VP doesn't really matter.   Can anyone who would like to refute this theory point to VP's who really changed things nationally?  Did more than carry their own state against the grain of the Presidential nominee?

What about Johnson in 1960?

[DarthKosh]

Assuming Dean wins the nomination, who would be the most advantageous VP?  Not Clark, who is such a vague, half-baked non-entity that I doubt he'd even turn Arkansas, and certainly no other states.  I think VP is not that useful except if it is someone very strongly popular from a big swing state, since they have little national effect, outside their home state.  So Graham from Florida is the best.  Its possible he could turn that state, but very likely no others.  However, that would be enough.  Edwards could not turn NC, which is solid Bush.  He barely won the senate seat there and is not popular.  Richardson would just make sure NM stayed Dem, I don't think he'd turn Arizona.  Besides even if he did, and Bush won Florida, kept Ohio, and gained IA/MN/WI, it wouldn't matter.  Gephart wouldn't give Dean Missouri - he's unpopular statewide outside his district - though he might help hold IA/MN/WI.  I doubt he'd make much difference in OH.  

So it comes down to Graham, even though he's such a sad sack.

Edwards could still turn Arkansas and Louisiana and would make a dent in NC, forcing bush to spend some $$$$ there.

If edwards can not carry his home state then how will he help Dean carry those two?

[Gustaf]

Assuming Dean wins the nomination, who would be the most advantageous VP?  Not Clark, who is such a vague, half-baked non-entity that I doubt he'd even turn Arkansas, and certainly no other states.  I think VP is not that useful except if it is someone very strongly popular from a big swing state, since they have little national effect, outside their home state.  So Graham from Florida is the best.  Its possible he could turn that state, but very likely no others.  However, that would be enough.  Edwards could not turn NC, which is solid Bush.  He barely won the senate seat there and is not popular.  Richardson would just make sure NM stayed Dem, I don't think he'd turn Arizona.  Besides even if he did, and Bush won Florida, kept Ohio, and gained IA/MN/WI, it wouldn't matter.  Gephart wouldn't give Dean Missouri - he's unpopular statewide outside his district - though he might help hold IA/MN/WI.  I doubt he'd make much difference in OH.  

So it comes down to Graham, even though he's such a sad sack.

Edwards could still turn Arkansas and Louisiana and would make a dent in NC, forcing bush to spend some $$$$ there.

If edwards can not carry his home state then how will he help Dean carry those two?

B/c NC is more Republican than the two others.

[DarthKosh]

Assuming Dean wins the nomination, who would be the most advantageous VP?  Not Clark, who is such a vague, half-baked non-entity that I doubt he'd even turn Arkansas, and certainly no other states.  I think VP is not that useful except if it is someone very strongly popular from a big swing state, since they have little national effect, outside their home state.  So Graham from Florida is the best.  Its possible he could turn that state, but very likely no others.  However, that would be enough.  Edwards could not turn NC, which is solid Bush.  He barely won the senate seat there and is not popular.  Richardson would just make sure NM stayed Dem, I don't think he'd turn Arizona.  Besides even if he did, and Bush won Florida, kept Ohio, and gained IA/MN/WI, it wouldn't matter.  Gephart wouldn't give Dean Missouri - he's unpopular statewide outside his district - though he might help hold IA/MN/WI.  I doubt he'd make much difference in OH.  

So it comes down to Graham, even though he's such a sad sack.

Edwards could still turn Arkansas and Louisiana and would make a dent in NC, forcing bush to spend some $$$$ there.

If edwards can not carry his home state then how will he help Dean carry those two?

B/c NC is more Republican than the two others.

But Edwards got elected in NC.  If gore could not win Ark and LA then Dean/Edwards can not.

[© tweed]

Gore wasn't really seen as a southerner, nor did he come across as one.  NC is far more conservative than Arkansas and Louisiana, so Edwards, with SOUTHERN appeal that Gore did not have, will have a better shot at ARK and LA.

[DarthKosh]

Gore wasn't really seen as a southerner, nor did he come across as one.  NC is far more conservative than Arkansas and Louisiana, so Edwards, with SOUTHERN appeal that Gore did not have, will have a better shot at ARK and LA.

Gore had a high black and dem turnout and he still lost.

[© tweed]

Gore wasn't really seen as a southerner, nor did he come across as one.  NC is far more conservative than Arkansas and Louisiana, so Edwards, with SOUTHERN appeal that Gore did not have, will have a better shot at ARK and LA.

Gore had a high black and dem turnout and he still lost.

I'm talking arkansas and Louisiana.

[DarthKosh]

Gore wasn't really seen as a southerner, nor did he come across as one.  NC is far more conservative than Arkansas and Louisiana, so Edwards, with SOUTHERN appeal that Gore did not have, will have a better shot at ARK and LA.

Gore had a high black and dem turnout and he still lost.

I'm talking arkansas and Louisiana.

So am I.

[Nation]

Do you think Dean/Clark/Edwards or some combination of the three could get as good black turnout as Gore did?

[DarthKosh]

Do you think Dean/Clark/Edwards or some combination of the three could get as good black turnout as Gore did?

No I do not think they can get a good black turnout.

[© tweed]

Thanks to Sharpton Dean won't be able to.