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Author Topic: Who Will Drop Out before NH Primary?  (Read 8289 times)
NorthernDog
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« on: December 08, 2003, 09:34:49 pm »
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With Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean, the Dean campaign now has the imprimatur of  the Democratic party establishment.  Realistically only Gephart, Clark or maybe Kerry could still win the nomination.  So who will drop out before the first primary?  Lieberman is my guess - Poor Joe, we hardly knew ya. Smiley
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2003, 09:52:14 pm »
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I would say Lieberman also.  He's nowhere right now, and I really don't see him getting anywhere with Gore's endorsement of Dean (actually, I never saw him getting anywhere before that either).

After Lieberman, I see Kerry dropping out next, but not before New Hampshire.  Kerry's campaign, like Lieberman's but to a lesser degree, has fallen flat and he has little chance of winning the nomination.

That leaves Gephardt and Clark as the possible "anti-Dean" candidates.  I'm betting Gephardt has the best chance to "unseat" Dean from his frontrunner status, but that won't be easy.  Clark, who looked good at first, is falling fast in the polls and is beginning to look like Lieberman and Kerry=he's going nowhere fast.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2003, 09:24:53 am »
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Lieberman is in till FEb 3 I believe.  He has bet his whole run on those states, why drop out before they have their returns?

AZ, DE and OK are his key states.

I'd say the most likely to drop out is Gephardt with an IA loss, otherwise they all stay till NH and then Kerry drops out.
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2003, 10:40:31 am »
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It looks like the Dem establishment will have to rally around Gephardt to stop dean,  The campaigns of Kerry and Lieberman now can be deemed useless.  Kerry won't drop out, but Joe might.

The little candidates will stay in.
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2003, 12:06:19 pm »
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It looks like the Dem establishment will have to rally around Gephardt to stop dean,  The campaigns of Kerry and Lieberman now can be deemed useless.  Kerry won't drop out, but Joe might.

The little candidates will stay in.

Gore problely knows that Dean will lose he is setting himself up to take on Hillary in '08 if she doesn't run this election.
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2003, 08:28:23 pm »
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Gore problely knows that Dean will lose he is setting himself up to take on Hillary in '08 if she doesn't run this election.
For cryin out loud! When will people realize that Hillary will NOT run for President in 2004! No matter what Rush Limbaugh tells you.

If she were to get into the race right now, she would be going against her word (because she said she wasn't going to run next year) and plus she would cause an internal war with Democrats, because the 9 candidates did all that campaigning, and all the raising of money, just to see Hillary rise to glory. If you mix these ingredients together, you get a big "HILLARY ISN'T RUNNING IN 2004 SO STOP THINKING SHE WILL" cake. This cake doesn't taste very good to Republicans.
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2003, 10:55:28 pm »
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I know Hilliary isn't running and that is good b/c then she has no chance of winning.  WHEW!

Thought Gore was scarey enough and Dean is a bit off , but Hilliary.
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2003, 10:56:13 pm »
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plus Hilliary could only get it at the convention anyway as she has missed alot of the deadlines, so not happening.
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2003, 11:35:45 pm »
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None of them will drop out before New Hampshire. Kerry will be waiting for the NH results. Gephardt still has Missouri coming up Feb.3 which he can win. Lieberman and Clark are both hoping to try to pick up a couple of the Feb. 3 states. Edwards will be hoping to win South Carolina on Feb. 3. Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun never had a chance in the first place.
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2003, 12:00:35 am »
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Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun never had a chance in the first place.
You've got that right. Those candidates can't even win their own home state. Well, I could see Ohio going for Kucinich, but I doubt it.  New York would go for Dean before Sharpton, and Braun won't win Illinois. Trust me. Gephardt or Dean would win Illinois before Braun. But since the Illinois Primaries aren't until March, my guess is she will be out of the race by then anyway.
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2003, 01:16:04 am »
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I would say Lieberman also.  He's nowhere right now, and I really don't see him getting anywhere with Gore's endorsement of Dean (actually, I never saw him getting anywhere before that either).

After Lieberman, I see Kerry dropping out next, but not before New Hampshire.  Kerry's campaign, like Lieberman's but to a lesser degree, has fallen flat and he has little chance of winning the nomination.

That leaves Gephardt and Clark as the possible "anti-Dean" candidates.  I'm betting Gephardt has the best chance to "unseat" Dean from his frontrunner status, but that won't be easy.  Clark, who looked good at first, is falling fast in the polls and is beginning to look like Lieberman and Kerry=he's going nowhere fast.

I think Lieberman is really the only candidate left who could beat Dean (maybe Clark too).  He benefits from not really having a must-win state; Gephardt suffers from being yolked to Iowa.

If I had to guess which candidate is going to drop out before New Hampshire I'd say Gephardt.  He's the only one who's really got anything at stake in Iowa.  Unfornately for Gephardt, he's probably not going to win there.

Next will be Kerry.  I think he might even finish a humiliating third place in New Hampshire which will completely kill his candidacy.  Its conceivable that Gephardt could survive a close loss in Iowa, but John Kerry can't afford a landslide loss in New Hampshire.  If Clark finishes second that will give him a big boost.

It's anyone's guess who's going to win South Carolina.  I suppose Edwards will probably stay in.  Clark could win SC.  Dean could, too, or even Sharpton.

In any case, by the time Feb. 3 rolls around, Gephardt and Kerry are going to be toast.
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2003, 05:01:46 am »
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Gephardt won't drop out after Iowa with his home state of Missouri coming Feb.3
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2003, 09:49:44 am »
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Braun is done after feb 3 when she shows she can't siphone votes off Sharpton in SC and will drop out.

Gephardt himself has said IA is a must win, so he loses hard to limp on for 2 more weeks into his home state.

Kerry done after NH.

Feb 3 is big day for Clark/Edwards/Lieberman they have to break through somewhere or done.

Kucinich could win OH as a fav son, but about it.  Plus he will have to start looking at House campaign.

Sharpton in it till the end.  No reason not to.  He wants to be the black leader and get a convention speech.
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2003, 12:29:19 pm »

Braun is done after feb 3 when she shows she can't siphone votes off Sharpton in SC and will drop out.

Gephardt himself has said IA is a must win, so he loses hard to limp on for 2 more weeks into his home state.

Kerry done after NH.

Feb 3 is big day for Clark/Edwards/Lieberman they have to break through somewhere or done.

Kucinich could win OH as a fav son, but about it.  Plus he will have to start looking at House campaign.

Sharpton in it till the end.  No reason not to.  He wants to be the black leader and get a convention speech.
Kucinich will have start looking for a new toupe. [wig]
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Ryan
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2003, 03:53:33 pm »
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Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun never had a chance in the first place.
You've got that right. Those candidates can't even win their own home state. Well, I could see Ohio going for Kucinich, but I doubt it.  New York would go for Dean before Sharpton, and Braun won't win Illinois. Trust me. Gephardt or Dean would win Illinois before Braun. But since the Illinois Primaries aren't until March, my guess is she will be out of the race by then anyway.

Ohio going for Kucinich?? Do you find the democratic electorate there that liberal?? A very large component is blue collar and socially conservative (remember Traficant??) I dont see much in common with then an ol Dennis Cheesy
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2003, 09:00:37 pm »
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Ohio going for Kucinich?? Do you find the democratic electorate there that liberal?? A very large component is blue collar and socially conservative (remember Traficant??) I dont see much in common with then an ol Dennis Cheesy

The only reason I said that, is because Ohio is all Kuchinich has got! lol SmileySmiley
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2003, 12:30:22 am »

With Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean, the Dean campaign now has the imprimatur of  the Democratic party establishment.  Realistically only Gephart, Clark or maybe Kerry could still win the nomination.  So who will drop out before the first primary?  Lieberman is my guess - Poor Joe, we hardly knew ya. Smiley
I do see Braun, Kerry, Kucinich, and last but not least, Lieberman, all withdrawing before the first primary. I see Clark, Dean, and Edwards all in it for the long haul. After a few primaries, Gephardt and Sharpton will follow suite and withdraw.
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2003, 03:15:04 am »
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I do see Braun, Kerry, Kucinich, and last but not least, Lieberman, all withdrawing before the first primary. I see Clark, Dean, and Edwards all in it for the long haul. After a few primaries, Gephardt and Sharpton will follow suite and withdraw.

I think Sharpton will withdraw around the same time as Braun, Kerry, and Lieberman. Sharpton will probably do a lot worse than the other mentioned candidates, however, the only thing that may keep him in the race  longer is his stubbornness.
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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2003, 03:03:44 pm »
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I wouldn't bet on Sharpton ever dropping out.
Since he doesn't have a chance anyway, as long as he has the money, why not stay in?
I'd bet on Mosley-Braun, Kucinich, Lieberman, and Kerry all drop out before NH unless one of them somehow wins in IA.
If they want to stop Dean, Edwards and Gephardt shuold drop out now and endorse Clark, as should the Clintons, but that does not seem to be happening.
eheu.
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2003, 03:55:06 pm »
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Kerry and Lieberman WILL NOT drop out before New Hampshire. New Hampshire is their only hope.
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« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2003, 04:50:35 pm »
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I think Kerry, Lieberman should drop out and endorse gephardt. I f what the are saying is true like lieberman saying " the bush recession wil be followed by the dean depression' They have know that gephardt is the only one who can stop dean and bush for that matter. VOTE GEPHARDT
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« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2003, 05:00:57 pm »
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I think the vanity candidates (Kucinich, Braun, Sharpton) are all going to be in the race until the convention.  Also, I think Edwards might stay in until then end considering that he doesn't really have anything to lose.  Same thing for Dean.  Even if things start going terribly awry for Dean, I think he'll stay in the race til the end.  All the others:  Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry, will probably drop out long before the convention as Dean crushes each one in their respective must-win states.
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« Reply #22 on: December 13, 2003, 05:03:35 pm »
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I just don't think any of them will drop out. Sharpton, Kucinich, and Braun are all in there to make a statement. Clark and Edwards are waiting to score on Feb 3. Kerry has to win NH, after the primary he may drop and endorse the leading anti-Dean. Lieberman's best shot is Feb 3, but I think he may stay in on principle. He may endorse a strong anti-Dean and drop, but not before NH. The one who might drop is Gep, if he not just loses Iowa but is smashed. NH will have a huge field of candidates with an overwhelming favorite. That could set the tone of future primarires.
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« Reply #23 on: December 13, 2003, 10:45:09 pm »
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No Ohio is just Kucinich's ONLY chance to wina  primary as a fav son.


Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun never had a chance in the first place.
You've got that right. Those candidates can't even win their own home state. Well, I could see Ohio going for Kucinich, but I doubt it.  New York would go for Dean before Sharpton, and Braun won't win Illinois. Trust me. Gephardt or Dean would win Illinois before Braun. But since the Illinois Primaries aren't until March, my guess is she will be out of the race by then anyway.

Ohio going for Kucinich?? Do you find the democratic electorate there that liberal?? A very large component is blue collar and socially conservative (remember Traficant??) I dont see much in common with then an ol Dennis Cheesy
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« Reply #24 on: December 13, 2003, 10:49:16 pm »
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Braun out after SC

Kuc--not that it matters! but may drop out when he wants or needs to focus on reelection to House

Sharpton--still think he is in till the convention, he wants a speech, plus could do well in SC and other southern states and if by God ihe would pull it off in one state he gets so much free press ( fromt eh right- ha ha)

Lieberman/Clark/Edwards big day is Feb 3--need something that day or bye bye

Gep needs IA or toast; Kerry needs NH as even Feb 3 looks bleak for him.

Dean in till the end no matter what and I thinkw ill be nominee
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