What If for 1976

[AndyTheMan]

I was born in President Ford's congressional district around the time he became vice president. I can remember as a child going with my fellow cub scouts to the Ford museum and being fascinated by the map of the electoral college of the 1976 election. When I was older I learned how Ford replaced Governor Rockefeller of New York with Bob Dole to placate the right wing of the party who felt Rockefeller wasn't conservative enough. I recall reading about Reagan who said "I am not appeased" after Dole replaced Rockefeller on the VP ticket. If Ford had kept Rockefeller on the ticket (which he now claims he should have) it is most likely that he would have won New York and that would have given him the electoral collage majority of 282 to 256.

[Ben.]

I’m not sure that Rockefeller would have granted Ford NY… however it is plausible… had Ford been re-elected I doubt much would have changed, the same problems would have appeared as they did under Carter, Ford might have made a better effort to deal with some of the issues than Carter was able to (largely thanks to him being a stranger to his own congressional party), however ultimately Ford would have been just as damaged in late 1979 as Carter was… Reagan would have made a second challenge and probably defeated Ford, that said a rally round the president mentality could have lead to Reagan being defeated for a second time but I doubt it… Reagan would have been a much stronger TV performer and more savvy campaigner than Ford however he could easily have been cast as out of the mainstream by democrats and added to that he would be leading a party discredited by its past two presidents Nixon and Ford… ultimately a Democratic moderate such as Senator John Glenn, Senator Lloyd Bentsen or Governor Hugh Carey… or perhaps a more charismatic liberal such as Ted Kennedy… ultimately the Democrats would have had the advantage no matter who they nominated so long as that candidate was not a radical in the tradition of McGovern or McCarthy (Which Kennedy was not)… so in the end Reagan fights a good campaign however he is unable to overcome his republican predecessors’ failures and his own image as slightly too far out of the mainstream…   so a solid but not landslide win for the Democrats with the Republicans also probably suffering a third party run by a moderate such as John Anderson as originally happened in 1980…  

[Ben.]

I’m not sure that Rockefeller would have granted Ford NY… however it is plausible… had Ford been re-elected I doubt much would have changed, the same problems would have appeared as they did under Carter, Ford might have made a better effort to deal with some of the issues than Carter was able to (largely thanks to him being a stranger to his own congressional party), however ultimately Ford would have been just as damaged in late 1979 as Carter was… Reagan would have made a second challenge and probably defeated Ford, that said a rally round the president mentality could have lead to Reagan being defeated for a second time but I doubt it… Reagan would have been a much stronger TV performer and more savvy campaigner than Ford however he could easily have been cast as out of the mainstream by democrats and added to that he would be leading a party discredited by its past two presidents Nixon and Ford… ultimately a Democratic moderate such as Senator John Glenn, Senator Lloyd Bentsen or Governor Hugh Carey… or perhaps a more charismatic liberal such as Ted Kennedy… ultimately the Democrats would have had the advantage no matter who they nominated so long as that candidate was not a radical in the tradition of McGovern or McCarthy (Which Kennedy was not)… so in the end Reagan fights a good campaign however he is unable to overcome his republican predecessors’ failures and his own image as slightly too far out of the mainstream…   so a solid but not landslide win for the Democrats with the Republicans also probably suffering a third party run by a moderate such as John Anderson as originally happened in 1980…  

Wow! You should team up with Tom Clancy. You've got a winner there! Great story!! (I am NOT being sarcastic, BTW.)

Tom Clancy?... I know the name but who is the guy?... I do love thinking about these what ifs though... and Glenn, Bentsen, Carey or even Kennedy would have been great presidents...

[JohnFKennedy]

I’m not sure that Rockefeller would have granted Ford NY… however it is plausible… had Ford been re-elected I doubt much would have changed, the same problems would have appeared as they did under Carter, Ford might have made a better effort to deal with some of the issues than Carter was able to (largely thanks to him being a stranger to his own congressional party), however ultimately Ford would have been just as damaged in late 1979 as Carter was… Reagan would have made a second challenge and probably defeated Ford, that said a rally round the president mentality could have lead to Reagan being defeated for a second time but I doubt it… Reagan would have been a much stronger TV performer and more savvy campaigner than Ford however he could easily have been cast as out of the mainstream by democrats and added to that he would be leading a party discredited by its past two presidents Nixon and Ford… ultimately a Democratic moderate such as Senator John Glenn, Senator Lloyd Bentsen or Governor Hugh Carey… or perhaps a more charismatic liberal such as Ted Kennedy… ultimately the Democrats would have had the advantage no matter who they nominated so long as that candidate was not a radical in the tradition of McGovern or McCarthy (Which Kennedy was not)… so in the end Reagan fights a good campaign however he is unable to overcome his republican predecessors’ failures and his own image as slightly too far out of the mainstream…   so a solid but not landslide win for the Democrats with the Republicans also probably suffering a third party run by a moderate such as John Anderson as originally happened in 1980…  

Wow! You should team up with Tom Clancy. You've got a winner there! Great story!! (I am NOT being sarcastic, BTW.)

Tom Clancy?... I know the name but who is the guy?... I do love thinking about these what ifs though... and Glenn, Bentsen, Carey or even Kennedy would have been great presidents...

he was a spy, writes espionage books and is an advisor for games - Rogue Spear, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell etc

[AndyTheMan]

I’m not sure that Rockefeller would have granted Ford NY… however it is plausible… had Ford been re-elected I doubt much would have changed, the same problems would have appeared as they did under Carter, Ford might have made a better effort to deal with some of the issues than Carter was able to (largely thanks to him being a stranger to his own congressional party), however ultimately Ford would have been just as damaged in late 1979 as Carter was… Reagan would have made a second challenge and probably defeated Ford, that said a rally round the president mentality could have lead to Reagan being defeated for a second time but I doubt it… Reagan would have been a much stronger TV performer and more savvy campaigner than Ford however he could easily have been cast as out of the mainstream by democrats and added to that he would be leading a party discredited by its past two presidents Nixon and Ford… ultimately a Democratic moderate such as Senator John Glenn, Senator Lloyd Bentsen or Governor Hugh Carey… or perhaps a more charismatic liberal such as Ted Kennedy… ultimately the Democrats would have had the advantage no matter who they nominated so long as that candidate was not a radical in the tradition of McGovern or McCarthy (Which Kennedy was not)… so in the end Reagan fights a good campaign however he is unable to overcome his republican predecessors’ failures and his own image as slightly too far out of the mainstream…   so a solid but not landslide win for the Democrats with the Republicans also probably suffering a third party run by a moderate such as John Anderson as originally happened in 1980…  

Ben, Thank you for such a thoughtful reply. I really enjoyed reading your hypothesis.

[Ben.]

I’m not sure that Rockefeller would have granted Ford NY… however it is plausible… had Ford been re-elected I doubt much would have changed, the same problems would have appeared as they did under Carter, Ford might have made a better effort to deal with some of the issues than Carter was able to (largely thanks to him being a stranger to his own congressional party), however ultimately Ford would have been just as damaged in late 1979 as Carter was… Reagan would have made a second challenge and probably defeated Ford, that said a rally round the president mentality could have lead to Reagan being defeated for a second time but I doubt it… Reagan would have been a much stronger TV performer and more savvy campaigner than Ford however he could easily have been cast as out of the mainstream by democrats and added to that he would be leading a party discredited by its past two presidents Nixon and Ford… ultimately a Democratic moderate such as Senator John Glenn, Senator Lloyd Bentsen or Governor Hugh Carey… or perhaps a more charismatic liberal such as Ted Kennedy… ultimately the Democrats would have had the advantage no matter who they nominated so long as that candidate was not a radical in the tradition of McGovern or McCarthy (Which Kennedy was not)… so in the end Reagan fights a good campaign however he is unable to overcome his republican predecessors’ failures and his own image as slightly too far out of the mainstream…   so a solid but not landslide win for the Democrats with the Republicans also probably suffering a third party run by a moderate such as John Anderson as originally happened in 1980…  

Ben, Thank you for such a thoughtful reply. I really enjoyed reading your hypothesis.

Glad you liked it Andy... As i said i do have a weakness for "What If History" ... if i had the time I'd try and do a timline right up to 2000, but sadly i do not, added to that the further you get from "the piont of departure or POD" the harder it is to forcast what might happen...

[Gustaf]

Rockefeller gave the finger to a young activist in front of a camera.

If Rockefeller had been kept on, I think the conservatives might have revolted. More to the point, Ford might not have been nominated. Rockefeller was REALLY hated by the conservative wing.

[Nym90]

It's worth noting that if Ford had won in 1976, he would not have been able to run again in 1980 (since he served more than 2 years of the term to which Nixon was elected). So Reagan may have won the nomination in 1980, but not by defeating Ford. Rockefeller ended up dying in 1979, so maybe Ford would have chosen Dole as his new VP anyway upon his death. Either way, Dole as the incumbent VP would have been the favorite for the nomination, but if things were going badly, he might have lost to Reagan.