the biggest 'surprise' state

[WalterMitty]

what state do you think will be the biggest surprise on election night.  in other words, which state is going to buck the conventional wisdom?

right now, im going to say west va.  i think wva will stay with bush, despite everyone thinking it's going to flip to kerry.

if pennsylvania goes to bush, that will be somewhat of a surprise, also.

[Gustaf]

Hm, hard to say...since the surprise state will SURPRISE us!

I'd concur with you, I see OH, PA and WV going for Bush, and I guess that might be a bit of a surprise. Overall, I don't think we'll see a lot of surprises, although some are bound to happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV or PA won't be shocks either way (WV didn't shock me in 2000 either... then again I thought Bush would win solidly in the EC).

What's a shock?

MOST states could *possibly* slip either way if candidate x does something that offends the voters of state y

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The only surprise state I can think of will be Kerry winning Virginia.  Everything seems etierh solid or swing at the moment.  

[dunn]

Kerry wins Utah?
Bush wins Mass?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry wins Utah?
Bush wins Mass?

CNN:

"... and we can confirm that Hell has indeed frozen over...

[dunn]

Kerry wins Utah?
Bush wins Mass?

CNN:

"... and we can confirm that Hell has indeed frozen over...

lol

can't happen together though...

[classical liberal]

Virginia

[John]

Bush will win PA & that will end the election
Bush will Ohio & Florida (They Might Be Close)
PA
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 47%
Ohio
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 49%
Florida
Bush: 51%
Kerry: 46%

[ShapeShifter]

Virginia

howcome?

[WalterMitty]

i forgot to add oregon.  there is a chance (small) that bush will carry oregon.  that would be truly be surprising.

oregon shouldnt be competitive at all.  the fact that it is, has to be disturbing to kerry.

[ShapeShifter]

i forgot to add oregon.  there is a chance (small) that bush will carry oregon.  that would be truly be surprising.

oregon shouldnt be competitive at all.  the fact that it is, has to be disturbing to kerry.

the fact that florida and ohio are competitive should be disturbing to Bush.

[WalterMitty]

it is slightly disturbing to bush that ohio and florida are in play.

but let's look at oregon:

1. their populaation centers are bastions of liberalism
2.  it has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country
3. hasnt gone for a republican since 1984.

i dont understand how bush in even close there.

[agcatter]

I didn't know Va was competitive.

[ShapeShifter]

it is slightly disturbing to bush that ohio and florida are in play.

but let's look at oregon:

1. their populaation centers are bastions of liberalism
2.  it has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country
3. hasnt gone for a republican since 1984.

i dont understand how bush in even close there.

slightly?

Florida + Ohio = 47 EV

I don't know how you can say slightly disturbing and make it disturbing for Oregon to be close.

[© tweed]

Maybe Washington.

[classical liberal]

VA would be a surprise.  The answers everyone else gave are counted as tossups by all the pundits.  The only state that could go to the unexpected victor would be VA.  The numbers in 2000 were similar to WV, but everyone has already picked up on WV so I say VA.

[elcorazon]

Virginia, Louisiana, Indiana or Colorado could be surprises for Kerry.

Michigan, Maine or Minnesota could be a surprise for Bush.

I doubt any will happen, but that's why they'd be surprises, no?

[Gustaf]

Walter,

Oregon was very close in 2000, so why wouldn't it be this time? It's the same with Ohio and Florida.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bush wont win Oregon.  Nader looks like he's not getting on the ballot, and people aren't excited about him like they were the last time even if he did.  Kerry wins Oregon 53-46.

[© tweed]

Bush wont win Oregon.  Nader looks like he's not getting on the ballot, and people aren't excited about him like they were the last time even if he did.  Kerry wins Oregon 53-46.

I doubt Kerry will win it by that big of a margin.

[WalterMitty]

Walter,

Oregon was very close in 2000, so why wouldn't it be this time? It's the same with Ohio and Florida.

for two big reasons i can think of off the top of my head.  the bad economy and employment situation in oregon.  and secondly, the war is extremely unpopular in places like portland and eugene.

those two factors, combined with the fact that nader may not be on the ballot, would lead one to conclude that kerry will win the state by a bigger margin than gore.  however, at this time, that doesnt appear to be the case.

[© tweed]

Nader was a big facotr in Oregon in 2000, so I do think Kerry will pick it up this year, and win it by 3-5%.

[classical liberal]

If Nader's ballot woes continue I think that Kerry may win big.

[opebo]

Walter,

Oregon was very close in 2000, so why wouldn't it be this time? It's the same with Ohio and Florida.

for two big reasons i can think of off the top of my head.  the bad economy and employment situation in oregon.  and secondly, the war is extremely unpopular in places like portland and eugene.

those two factors, combined with the fact that nader may not be on the ballot, would lead one to conclude that kerry will win the state by a bigger margin than gore.  however, at this time, that doesnt appear to be the case.

Oregon always has a bad economy - it consistently underperforms the rest of the country.  The whole west coast is lousy like that.