I have looked at the results in 2000 and i am of the firm believe that this race will be close. i have read various opinions on who will win this state, or that state. As this country is polarised, i believe that the democrats have assured 183, while the republicans have assured 190. So i believe that only 15 states are to be fought for. Heres how i got there;
State victories obtained 55% or more in 2000 (25 states)
-Republican Victories = 133 electorial votes.
Alaska (3), Idaho(4),Montana(3), Utah(5), North Dakota (3),South Dakota(3), Wyoming(3), Kansas(6), Texas(34), Oklahoma(7), Nebraska(5), Indiana(11) Mississippi(6) , Alabama (9), South Carolina(
, North Carolina(15) and Kentucky(
-Democrat Victories = 86 electorial votes
New York(31) Connecticut(7) New Jersey (15) Marland(10) Rhode Island(4) Massachusetts(12) Hawaii(4) Columbia(3)
States victories obtaining 50% or more of vote and ahead by more than 10% (4 states)
Republican victories
Georgia (+11.63, 15)
Democrat Victories
California(+11.80, 55) Illinois (+12.02,21) Delaware(13.06, 3)
So I am sure that 29 are definitely decided. the score is Bush 148, Kerry 165. If a landslide doesnt occur then
States that won by obtaining more than 50% of voters and by a margin of more than 5%= 7 states
Republican
Virginia(13), Colorado(9), Arizona (10) Louisiana(9)
Democrat
Maine(4), Washington (11), Vermont(3)
Hence, Bush 189 Kerry 183
That leaves 15 states. all others are decided.
West Virginia, Pennslyvania, Ohio, Tennessee, Michigan
New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Oregan,
Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, minnesota.
I think from these 15, whoever wins will be decided by the victor of Ohio and Wisconsin.
