Robo-Pollster says Bush by 8 in Tennessee
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  Robo-Pollster says Bush by 8 in Tennessee
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Author Topic: Robo-Pollster says Bush by 8 in Tennessee  (Read 7442 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 17, 2004, 02:22:27 PM »
« edited: June 17, 2004, 02:23:32 PM by The Vorlon »

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Tennessee%20Jun%2017.htm

Two previous polls showed Bush up 10% and 11%

This "appears" to be a leftover 400 person sample size take-the -tennessee-interviews-from-the-month-of-May and call it a "state" poll release from Rasmussen.

The write up is unclear in that respect.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2004, 02:34:29 PM »

Why even bother polling TN? It'll be decided (as always) by whether or not the Confederate counties can outvote the Union counties (with their new suburban allies)...
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2004, 02:36:11 PM »

Actually, the suburbs are voting with the Confederacy.  The exurbs go to the Union.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2004, 02:39:18 PM »

Actually, the suburbs are voting with the Confederacy.  The exurbs go to the Union.

Yeah... you're right.
Who needs polls, issues or even candidates when you can have a Civil War re-enactment every other year...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2004, 02:41:27 PM »

I think Bush will be about 10 points above his national average in Tennessee.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2004, 02:42:31 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2004, 02:44:34 PM by jmfcst »

Why even bother polling TN? It'll be decided (as always) by whether or not the Confederate counties can outvote the Union counties (with their new suburban allies)...

Well, the outcome is a given:  The Confederates (the Democrats) will lose to the Unionists (the Republicans).
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2004, 02:43:08 PM »

Actually, the suburbs are voting with the Confederacy.  The exurbs go to the Union.

Yeah... you're right.
Who needs polls, issues or even candidates when you can have a Civil War re-enactment every other year...

Damn - you've figured out my secret and why I like "Mason-Dixon" so much as a polling firm.. Sad
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classical liberal
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2004, 02:43:31 PM »

TN-01 and FL-02 are probablly the most antiquated in terms of voting patterns.  The GOP has underperformed in FL-02 and overperformed in TN-01 in every election other than 1868 and 1964.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2004, 02:48:16 PM »

I think Bush will be about 10 points above his national average in Tennessee.

Won't happen
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jmfcst
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2004, 02:50:12 PM »

I think Bush will be about 10 points above his national average in Tennessee.

Won't happen

I'd say 7 to 8 points.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2004, 02:54:09 PM »

My Projection-

TN
Bush 51.5
Kerry 46.5
Badnarik 2
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jmfcst
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2004, 02:55:17 PM »

My Projection-

TN
Bush 51.5
Kerry 46.5
Badnarik 2

In a 50/50 national election?  No way!
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classical liberal
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2004, 02:57:01 PM »

How is a 5 point win plus 2 points to the Libertarians in TN in a tied race outrageous?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2004, 03:00:04 PM »

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2004, 03:05:29 PM »

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

Agreed.  Gore should have seen Tenn slipping from him.  His internal projections always assumed his "home" state going for him.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2004, 03:25:52 PM »

How is a 5 point win plus 2 points to the Libertarians in TN in a tied race outrageous?

You are underestimating Bush in the South.  All this talk about Virginia and Tenn is silly.  Bush will win Tenn by at least 56-44 in a 50/50 national election.  Southerners are not going to like Kerry once they get a good look at him.

And I disagree with AL that Gore wasn't help in Tenn in 2000.  It did help that Gore was from Tenn, just not enough.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2004, 04:45:07 PM »

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

Bush was 4.5% above his national average in Tennessee in 2000.  Lets say this:

Gore being more moderate than Kerry: Margin up to 6.5%
Gore Boost from (sort of) being southern/from TN: Margin up to 10%.

In a 50-50 election, Bush would win TN 55-45% or so.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2004, 04:49:35 PM »

Rasmussen is garbage.  I don't pay any attention to their polls, State or National.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2004, 03:33:22 AM »

Oddly enough, I don't think that Gore being from TN actually helped him in 2000...
That "from DC not Tennessee" image killed him dead.

Bush was 4.5% above his national average in Tennessee in 2000.  Lets say this:

Gore being more moderate than Kerry: Margin up to 6.5%
Gore Boost from (sort of) being southern/from TN: Margin up to 10%.

In a 50-50 election, Bush would win TN 55-45% or so.

The moderate thing doesn't work... TN isn't a moderate state *at all*... just a very, very divided one...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #19 on: June 18, 2004, 07:33:53 AM »

Al,

If Tennessee is so close, why do polls keep coming out from the state (other than mentally illl Zogby) show Bush up 8-12%?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2004, 07:45:49 AM »

Al,

If Tennessee is so close, why do polls keep coming out from the state (other than mentally illl Zogby) show Bush up 8-12%?

I dunno whether it'll be close or not. Depends whether or not the Confederates can beat the Union...
Turnout, turnout, turnout
Polling TN is a waste of money.
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Reds4
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« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2004, 11:56:31 PM »

TN goes to Bush by at the very least 7% in a 50-50 election.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2004, 11:58:25 PM »

I say that 2 of those 7 will be pulled off by the Libertarians
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« Reply #23 on: June 20, 2004, 09:05:54 AM »

I say that 2 of those 7 will be pulled off by the Libertarians

Nobody knows who that big earred dude is. Unless he gets some actual air time he will get .5% on average nationally.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2004, 08:31:53 PM »


Polling TN is a waste of money.

Try to invent polling difficulties in Tennessee all you want, but the fact remains all polls out of there recently have shown the same thing: Bush up in around 10%.
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