New polls in WI, MN and IA

[ATFFL]

These polls were taken over a long time, but they are nice enough to mention the Edwards effect.

One nice thing is they have a 2 way race and a 4 way, with Nadar and Badnarik, for each one.

Minnesota

Two Person
Kerry     49.0%
Bush     45.8%

Four person
Kerry     46.5%
Bush     44.2%
Nader     4.6%
Badnarik 1.0%

Kerry saw slight gains after the Edwards announcement.


Wisconsin

Kerry     45.9%
Bush     48.4%

Kerry     44.6%
Bush     46.1%
Nader     4.0%
Badnarik 1.5%


Iowa

Kerry     50.5%
Bush     45.7%

Kerry     47.7%
Bush     44.4%
Nader     2.7%
Badnarik 1.1%

This is where Kerry got the biggest bounce from Edwards, changing the poll from a dead heat to the numbers above.

http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/csp/elections/HumphreySurvey1.pdf

[© tweed]

Remember what Vorlon says about uni polls...and it seems to hold up here.  Kerry's lead widens in 2 of the 3 polls when Nader is included.

[ATFFL]

MN
2-way:  Kerry leads by 3.2%
4-way:  Kerry leads by 2.3%

WI
2-way:  Bush leads by 2.5%
4-way:  Bush leads by 1.5%

IA
2-way:  Kerry leads by 4.7%
4-way:  Kerry leads by 3.3%

Only in WI is Kerry aided in the 4-way.

Also, they are RV polls.  Defintely not the greatest, the time frame is way too long for one thing.

[© tweed]

Whoops.  added wrong.

[millwx]

FWIW, the one month poll average is the various states with recent polls or just assumed "close" states...

Arizona = Bush +6.1%
Arkansas = Bush +0.2%
Florida = Bush +0.6%
Georgia = Bush +13.0%
Iowa = Kerry +2.8%
Michigan = Kerry +5.3%
Minnesota = Kerry +7.2%
Missouri = Bush +1.0%
New Mexico = Kerry +7.0%
North Carolina = Bush +7.8%
Ohio = Bush +1.4%
Oregon = Kerry +8.3%
Pennsylvania = Kerry +3.4%
South Carolina = Bush +13.0%
Virginia = Bush +5.3%
Washington = Kerry +6.6%
West Virginia = Bush +3.7%
Wisconsin = Kerry +2.2%

Note that most of these states, though close (with a few exceptions), aren't as close as some would make them sound.  In most of these states the leader has a 5% lead or more.  Given that this is a poll average, even a 3% lead is probably a true "lean".  So, only states with the leader up less than 3% are true battlegrounds or tossups... this includes only AR, FL, IA, MO, OH and WI.

[Akno21]

Why is Kerry losing by a fairly large total in Wisconsin? It has 2 Democratic senators and always seemed Democratic to me.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Any poll that shows Bush winning Wisconsin should be tossed in the trash.

[The Duke]

Any poll that shows Bush winning Wisconsin should be tossed in the trash.

And Kentucky polls with Bush ahead, too!

[agcatter]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

Because people in Wisconsin know better than to elect some idiot like Bush.

[Akno21]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

Because people in Wisconsin know better than to elect some idiot like Bush.

I wish people in New Hampshire did too.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

Because people in Wisconsin know better than to elect some idiot like Bush.

Will you just shut up!!! Take your wacky left talk somewhere else!

[agcatter]

Great in depth answer as usual.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with Wisconsin is Waukesha county, that place is easily to the right of any county in Minnesota except maybe Carver and Roseau, but unlike those two it's actually rather heavily populated. It's the 3rd most populated county in the state, and might even be able to cancel out the Democrat's margins in Milwaukee depending on turnout. Waukesha in 2002 was also easily Bush's 2nd best county of major size outside of the Deep South and Utah, only Ottawa, Michigan beat it.

Wisconsin's been polling weird, but most of the polls with Bush ahead are crappy uni ones, the 1st tier ones show Kerry ahead. I'm betting on Kerry winning.

[Akno21]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

Because people in Wisconsin know better than to elect some idiot like Bush.

Will you just shut up!!! Take your wacky left talk somewhere else!

Take your wacky right talk somewhere else.

[Gustaf]

Since Wisconsin was basically a tie in 2000, why would you burn any poll showing the state close in 04?

Because people in Wisconsin know better than to elect some idiot like Bush.

Will you just shut up!!! Take your wacky left talk somewhere else!

Take your wacky right talk somewhere else.

There's a difference between being delirious and being wacky.

But it is a little worrisome that Bush is doing so well in Wisconsin. I'd have expected it to be more tied than lean Bush.

[stry_cat]

I'm thinking WI is going to be the NH of 2004.  A lone Bush state borded by all Kerry states.

[minionofmidas]

I'm thinking WI is going to be the NH of 2004.  A lone Bush state borded by all Kerry states.

It's distinctly possible.

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, the one month poll average is the various states with recent polls or just assumed "close" states...

Arizona = Bush +6.1%
Arkansas = Bush +0.2%
Florida = Bush +0.6%
Georgia = Bush +13.0%
Iowa = Kerry +2.8%
Michigan = Kerry +5.3%
Minnesota = Kerry +7.2%
Missouri = Bush +1.0%
New Mexico = Kerry +7.0%
North Carolina = Bush +7.8%
Ohio = Bush +1.4%
Oregon = Kerry +8.3%
Pennsylvania = Kerry +3.4%
South Carolina = Bush +13.0%
Virginia = Bush +5.3%
Washington = Kerry +6.6%
West Virginia = Bush +3.7%
Wisconsin = Kerry +2.2%

Note that most of these states, though close (with a few exceptions), aren't as close as some would make them sound.  In most of these states the leader has a 5% lead or more.  Given that this is a poll average, even a 3% lead is probably a true "lean".  So, only states with the leader up less than 3% are true battlegrounds or tossups... this includes only AR, FL, IA, MO, OH and WI.

What are Georgia, SC, even NC doing on that list?
Where's New Hampshire? Nevada? Maine?

[classical liberal]

The problem with Wisconsin is Waukesha county, that place is easily to the right of any county in Minnesota except maybe Carver and Roseau, but unlike those two it's actually rather heavily populated. It's the 3rd most populated county in the state, and might even be able to cancel out the Democrat's margins in Milwaukee depending on turnout. Waukesha in 2002 was also easily Bush's 2nd best county of major size outside of the Deep South and Utah, only Ottawa, Michigan beat it.

Wisconsin's been polling weird, but most of the polls with Bush ahead are crappy uni ones, the 1st tier ones show Kerry ahead. I'm betting on Kerry winning.

I doubt that Waukesha could counter Milwaukee as Bush's vote margin in Waukesha was 40,000 votes smaller than Gore's in Milwaukee.

[MODU]

We'll know in 15.5 weeks!  hahaha . . . God, can't wait till all of this is over.  I can get back to watching HGTV and TLC on a nightly basis, rather than FOX News and CNN.  *laughs*

[Mort from NewYawk]

I'm thinking WI is going to be the NH of 2004.  A lone Bush state borded by all Kerry states.

I'm thinking and hoping that MN and IL will fill that bill - two lone Kerry states in a vast blue Bush Midwest.

[English]

I'm thinking WI is going to be the NH of 2004.  A lone Bush state borded by all Kerry states.

Funny you should say that! Here is my earlier prediction! I have a feeling about WI, it will go GOP while MO goes the other way.

[Mort from NewYawk]

I'm thinking WI is going to be the NH of 2004.  A lone Bush state borded by all Kerry states.

Funny you should say that! Here is my earlier prediction! I have a feeling about WI, it will go GOP while MO goes the other way.

Except maybe NV and AZ, I agree completely with your battleground states (light blue and light red).

The Dems should put Edwards on a boat and sail him up and down the Ohio and upper Mississippi Rivers for the next three and a half months.

[Gustaf]

Edwards should be in the steel states with surroundings: Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia. Also some of the Upper mIdwest, such as Wisconsin. He might also do a few tours to North Carolina, maybe even Arkansas.