Bush +6 or +4 in revised Gallup

[The Vorlon]

Revised gallup.

2 Way Race:

Bush gains 1 in LV (Now 51/47 head to head)
Bush gains 3 in RV (Now 48/48 head to head)

3 way Race (LV)

Bush 51 / Kerrry 45 / Nader 2
3 way RV is "tied"

The CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll of 1,129 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Dems have +5 on "Generic Congresional Ballot" which is dead on.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20040802/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't see any likely voter numbers.

[The Vorlon]

I don't see any likely voter numbers.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20040802/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls

[Lunar]

I really want to wait for the other respected firms to come out with their numbers before I form an opinion.  Kerry's speech wasn't that bad.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't see any likely voter numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Sorry, I'm still not seeing LVs on that page.  I only see the samples of adults and RVs.

[The Vorlon]

I don't see any likely voter numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Sorry, I'm still not seeing LVs on that page.  I only see the samples of adults and RVs.

Sorry - wrong link - this is the one!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20040802/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls

[TheWildCard]

I don't see any likely voter numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Sorry, I'm still not seeing LVs on that page.  I only see the samples of adults and RVs.

Sorry - wrong link - this is the one!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20040802/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls

Fixed

[zorkpolitics]

Kerry has set a new record for a post convention bounce in the polls: he has the largest negative bounce ever recorded by a Presidential candidate.   In the longest series of post convention preference polls, Kerry had a net -6 Bounce (compared to the last preconvention Gallop Poll).

Preconvention Bush 47  Kerry 49 (Likely voters)
Post convention Bush 51 Kerry 47. (Likely voters)

Previously only McGovern had accomplished a negative convention bounce and even he only managed a -3.  

We do indeed live in Historic times!

see for updated Gallop poll results:
http://www.gallup.com/election2004/
See previous convention bounces:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/dnc_convention_bounce_040725.html

[MarkDel]

Yeah, and McGovern's negative bounce was largely because the Democratic Convention in 1972 was run like a Junior High School Prom. McGovern gave his acceptance speech at 2 AM Eastern Time!!!

[??????????]

So is this good news for Bush or what? Mark call me if you're not busy.

[Giant Saguaro]

This is really something else, I don't know what to make of it. It is strange too that Kerry has a very hard time topping 50 in Democratic friendly polls after a freaking convention. Maybe he did come up on those "who would be best to do this or that, cook dinner for you, or make sure that the weather is nice for the World Series" questions, but Bush is still seen as the stronger, more decisive leader, and I can only figure that that must be the reason.

A bounce of -6, if that's correct, which breaks a record. Puzzling. If it turns out the best Kerry does is +6 or so (give or take a few) in Dem friendly venues, he'll likely just need to withdraw from the public. When he's not around and/or when Bush is addressing the nation is when he seems to come up! Which makes one wonder if the same thing as this won't happen at the close of the GOP convention...