To anyone still thinking NJ might be in play...

[they don't love you like i love you]

http://www.dalythoughts.com/nj/nj.htm (creator of site is pro-Bush)

Most recent polls:

Kerry +10
Kerry +20
Kerry +13
Kerry +13
Kerry +9
Kerry +12

the most recent one showing it close still shows Kerry +2 and it's from "Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind". uh yeah, whatever.

despite some early fluky polling, it's absolutely ridiculous now to think there will be some election night suprise in NJ like StatesRights and supersoulty.

[MODU]

Any state is in play, even Idaho and California.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Any state is in play, even Idaho and California.

Bush will have to go +15 nationally to win NJ and CA.

Kerry would need to go +40 to win Idaho.

[The Dowager Mod]

I never thought jersey was anything but solid kerry.

[MODU]

Any state is in play, even Idaho and California.

Bush will have to go +15 nationally to win NJ and CA.

Kerry would need to go +40 to win Idaho.

Like I said, it's still possible.  No one knows what will happen between now and Nov 2 which can impact significantly on the election.  It's still too early to rule out any state as a given.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Any state is in play, even Idaho and California.

Bush will have to go +15 nationally to win NJ and CA.

Kerry would need to go +40 to win Idaho.

Like I said, it's still possible.  No one knows what will happen between now and Nov 2 which can impact significantly on the election.  It's still too early to rule out any state as a given.

Given that Dukakis went from double-digits up to double-digits down between August and November, I suppose such a swing is theoretically possible.  But 2004 is not 1988.

[MODU]

Speaking of Jersey:

"NewsChannel 4: N.J. Governor McGreevey To Resign"

NEW YORK -- NewsChannel 4 has learned that New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey is planning on stepping down from office after more than 2 years of service.

McGreevey, a former prosecutor, came into office vowing to end corruption, but in recent months a number of his political aides and fundraisers have been accused of corruption ranging from alleged payoffs to hiring a prostitute.

McGreevey has not been accused of any wrongdoing, and has denied any wrongdoing in the past.

Should McGreevey indeed leave office, his successor under the state constitution would be Richard Codey, the current president of the state senate.

http://www.wnbc.com/politics/3648220/detail.html

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Those polls sound a lot more accurate than the stuff that was coming out before.  Bush would need to be almost +15 on Kerry in the popular vote to win here.  

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is practically finished for Bush as well.  The Philly Daily News and Inquirer have to scrape for conservative letter writers to publish from what I've heard.

[Acastus]

I have to agree that NJ is a reach for Bush.  I'm running a town council race here in Chatham NJ and many of the Republicans we canvassed in the primary were unhappy with the President.  If the race were today, I bet he'd do about as crappy as he did last time in Morris County.

As for McGreevey, even many Democrats I talk to down here admit freely that he is corrupt.  The McGreevey situation, however, is unlikely to help the President in any way come November.

[classical liberal]

what is it with Dem governors and corruption?  First KY then MO and now NJ?

[AuH2O]

Don't forget Alabama.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

what is it with Dem governors and corruption?  First KY then MO and now NJ?

Um...what about Connecticut? (Republican Governor resigned last month after corruption scandal)
And Illinois. (Republican Governor recently indicted for corruption)
And Arizona. (Republican Governor convicted and jailed for fraud in 1990s...previous Republican Governor impeached.)

[classical liberal]

What's with governors and corruption period?

[The Duke]

Pennsylvania is practically finished for Bush as well.  The Philly Daily News and Inquirer have to scrape for conservative letter writers to publish from what I've heard.

You're kidding?  Republicans have something better to do than write incoherent letters to the editor of a second tier newspaper?

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is practically finished for Bush as well.  The Philly Daily News and Inquirer have to scrape for conservative letter writers to publish from what I've heard.

You're kidding?  Republicans have something better to do than write incoherent letters to the editor of a second tier newspaper?

Ford,

Bingo.  People seem to forget that the average Conservative voter is not an activist, they are just trying to live their lives.  The average Liberal thinks about his stuff 24/7.  PA is still well with in Bush's reach.  The I know 50 people I can give by name who voted for Gore in 2000, but will vote Bush this year.

[nomorelies]

Kerry has a 87% of chance of winning New Jersey that is better than Bush has in Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Arzona and Tennessee.

Kerry will win New Jersey. Bush cant break 45% so its no contest.