Is Obama overrated?

[Reignman]

It's nice to see a fresh face in the Democratic Party who can get people fired up, and he just might become president someday.  And yet, the reason that everyone knows his name and thinks highly of him is because he gave a great speech.  That's nice, but sometimes a speech is just a speech.  Sometimes I wonder if we're giving him too much credit...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No.

[Lunar]

I like him a lot personally so I'll say no.  In reality, the answer is most likely a slight yes.

[Gabu]

I think many people may like him for the wrong reason (the reason you gave), but I would say no.  Right now it's too early to tell, however.  He does have a nearly obscenely strong lead on Keyes (40+%) at the moment, however.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is overrated. Though he'll easily win in November, it won't be by 25-30 points.

[TheWildCard]

He's good but right now he''s overrated. Once he serves awhile in the Senate and he proves himself to be a consistent charismatic speaker he won't be overrate anymored.

[Gabu]

He's good but right now he''s overrated. Once he serves awhile in the Senate and he proves himself to be a consistent charismatic speaker he won't be overrate anymored.

Well, if he's capable of living up to the admiration many people have for him, then by definition he isn't overrated.  Being overrated means that someone isn't actually as good as people say.

[dazzleman]

He may or may not be overrated.  He is not really a known quantity at this point.  There have been plenty of up-and-coming politicians who can give a good speech who didn't get the attention he's gotten.

When he gets to the Senate (he'll surely win in November) and serves for a while, then we'll know.  I'm cynical because people who receive this much attention when not much is known about them usually flame out before they ever reach their supposed potential.  We'll see.

I think also that if he were all white, as opposed to partly of African descent, he wouldn't be receiving all this attention.  And it is refreshing to see a black politician who doesn't overtly practice the politics of grievance and victimhood, as the Sharptons and Jacksons do.

[raggage]

Obama is overrated. Though he'll easily win in November, it won't be by 25-30 points.

I wouldn't be so sure Phil.. We're talking about an opponent not even from the state he is running, with far less name-recognition and media hooplah... I think it'll be a big win for Obama.

[Gabu]

In a recent poll I saw from the Chicago Tribune, he has 96% support from African-Americans compared to 3% for Keyes, which kind of lends him a bit more credibility.  I personally think that Keyes' complete focus on abortion opposition is going to blow up in his face, given that that same poll said that around 61% of Illinois residents thought that the restrictions on abortion were either just right or too strong, with only 28% thinking that they're too weak.

On top of that, over twice as many people who knew of Keyes beforehand expressed a disfavorable opinion of him as those who expressed a favorable opinion.  72% of people who describe themselves as "moderate" favor Obama.  A plurality of even those who describe themselves as "fairly conservative" favor Obama, 49% to 40%.  Even those who describe themselves as "very conservative" only prefer Keyes by a 19-point margin (55%-36%).  Over 50% of people think that the fact that he's not from Illinois indicates that he's not as capable of representing the state as he otherwise would have been.

With Obama holding a commanding 41-point lead over Keyes and with Keyes likely without an ace up his sleeve, I can't see how that lead will narrow by all that much.  I think that Obama will be sitting pretty come November.

[muon2]

Obama gave a fine speech this summer, but so did Cuomo in 1984. Cuomo's speech put him on everyone's up-and-comer list for the next decade, yet he didn't go anywhere. On the other hand, Clinton gave a widely criticized, boring, long keynote speech at the 1988 convention. It was thought to be the end of his national aspirations at the time. There's a lot more to politics than keynote speeches.

[Nation]

Quite right Muon, but compared to some of the hacks in the Democratic Party, I think Obama has a chance to become an important figure for them.

[PBrunsel]

I like Mr. Obama. He seems like a nice and respectbale hard working person. I am supporting Alan Keyes though.

I like Keyes because even though all the news channels say he will lose in a landslide, he is still campaigning hard. I know what it's like to come from behind and have to campaign hard (my runs for the fantasy positions of Governor, Senator, and Vice President), and that is why I like Keyes and that is why I am supporting him ofr Senate. God allowing, he will be the next Senator from Illinois (but i;m not holding my breath ).

[minionofmidas]

Nice numbers, Gabu.
I'd expect those very Conservative Obama backers - the White ones among them, that is - to snap back to their senses by november, though, and also enough of the fairly Con ones to make Keyes win that group. I don't see him appeal to any moderates whatsoever.

[ilikeverin]

He may or may not be overrated.

As opposed to...?

[Horus]

I don't think Obama is overrated, but I really don't have much to judge on besides his amazing speech and how succesful his campaign is.

As for Illinois, I think it's starting to become the most liberal state outside New England and Hawaii.

[AuH2O]

ok, 1 by 1.

1) Obama is overrated, severely, but of course he will easily win his Senate race. The overrating part is the idea he is a "President in training" (my words). It's just waaaaay premature, and frankly, people are only saying that because he is black.

2) Illinois is not liberal. Cook County is liberal, and when people can vote a few times each, it's pretty hard to overcome. However, Chicago basically IS the state of Illinois in population terms, so the GOP can only compete by mopping up the 'burbs. They can do it, but in the case of this Senate race did not get the candidates they wanted and didn't want a candidate that could have been respectable (Oberweis).

[muon2]

ok, 1 by 1.

2) Illinois is not liberal. Cook County is liberal, and when people can vote a few times each, it's pretty hard to overcome. However, Chicago basically IS the state of Illinois in population terms, so the GOP can only compete by mopping up the 'burbs. They can do it, but in the case of this Senate race did not get the candidates they wanted and didn't want a candidate that could have been respectable (Oberweis).

You are correct that IL is not that liberal overall. The suburbs and especially downstate are nothing like the northeast US. The state Dem party has been far more successful over the last 8 years in its grassroots work and it shows. While the GOP remains in disarray there won't be much turnaround. Look for new leadership to try to emerge going into 2006, but I can't tell you yet if a move for new Republicans to take charge will be successful yet. The old guard GOP still hangs on in many areas.

The coroner's battle in DuPage may well be a test case for the future. The candidate connected with the old guard chose to withdraw in the face of overwhelming support for the unknown, untested professional for the office. Next summer will have great deal of jockeying for position, and party members will look at the results of the special convention held here last Saturday.

[Keystone Phil]

ok, 1 by 1.

2) Illinois is not liberal. Cook County is liberal, and when people can vote a few times each, it's pretty hard to overcome. However, Chicago basically IS the state of Illinois in population terms, so the GOP can only compete by mopping up the 'burbs. They can do it, but in the case of this Senate race did not get the candidates they wanted and didn't want a candidate that could have been respectable (Oberweis).

The coroner's battle in DuPage may well be a test case for the future.

A coroner's race will be a "battle" and a "test case for the future." uhhhh...interesting...I guess.

[muon2]

ok, 1 by 1.

2) Illinois is not liberal. Cook County is liberal, and when people can vote a few times each, it's pretty hard to overcome. However, Chicago basically IS the state of Illinois in population terms, so the GOP can only compete by mopping up the 'burbs. They can do it, but in the case of this Senate race did not get the candidates they wanted and didn't want a candidate that could have been respectable (Oberweis).

The coroner's battle in DuPage may well be a test case for the future.

A coroner's race will be a "battle" and a "test case for the future." uhhhh...interesting...I guess.

It may seem like a trivial office, but there was a huge expenditure for a vote from 550 people - I'd guess tens of thousands of dollars were spent in a four week period. There were many mailings, signs and ads. It drew lead editorials from all the major dailies. I had 3-4 automated phone calls per day in the three days leading up to the convention.

This race was a proxy for party leadership in the county. Then, remember, DuPage is the driving force in the state GOP with the biggest net R votes cast in elections. The direction of the party leadership in this county can have impact on the direction of the party in the state overall.

[Keystone Phil]

ok, 1 by 1.

2) Illinois is not liberal. Cook County is liberal, and when people can vote a few times each, it's pretty hard to overcome. However, Chicago basically IS the state of Illinois in population terms, so the GOP can only compete by mopping up the 'burbs. They can do it, but in the case of this Senate race did not get the candidates they wanted and didn't want a candidate that could have been respectable (Oberweis).

The coroner's battle in DuPage may well be a test case for the future.

A coroner's race will be a "battle" and a "test case for the future." uhhhh...interesting...I guess.

It may seem like a trivial office, but there was a huge expenditure for a vote from 550 people - I'd guess tens of thousands of dollars were spent in a four week period. There were many mailings, signs and ads. It drew lead editorials from all the major dailies. I had 3-4 automated phone calls per day in the three days leading up to the convention.

This race was a proxy for party leadership in the county. Then, remember, DuPage is the driving force in the state GOP with the biggest net R votes cast in elections. The direction of the party leadership in this county can have impact on the direction of the party in the state overall.

I just don't get how you campaign to be coroner. It seems very odd. (Harry brought this up before. He said Mississippi was the only state to elect coroners. I had a feeling that wasn't true.)

[Democratic Hawk]

No. I was very impressed with Obama at the DNC.

Dave

[AuH2O]

Heard of Mario Cuomo?

[The Dowager Mod]

No he isn't.

[muon2]

I just don't get how you campaign to be coroner. It seems very odd. (Harry brought this up before. He said Mississippi was the only state to elect coroners. I had a feeling that wasn't true.)

Running for coroner is no different than running for offices like sheriff or state's (or district) attorney. They are all elected executive offices that manage a staff to conduct activities generally related to law enforcement. Usually, the campaign issues are does the candidate understand the work of the office, is the candidate qualified to manage the office, and can the candidate handle the activities that are likely to come up during the term.